Over/Under Accountability at Miami

Joel Auerbach

This week, your pessimism helped out a lot!

Over/Under 2.5 Justin Thomas Pass Completions

Actual Number: 0 completions on 3 attempts

Justin Thomas made it into the game before halftime and played 2-3 drives if I'm remembering correctly. Coach Johnson gave him an opportunity to throw, and similar to seemingly everyone else on our team he was unable to complete any.

Pessimism 1, Optimism 0

Over/Under 24.5 Points Allowed by Georgia Tech's Defense

Actual Number: 38 Points Allowed

For three quarters, Tech and its defense hung tough with Miami. When the time for the Budweiser song came, the Yellow Jackets were down 24-17, and shortly thereafter a David Sims touchdown pulled things to within 24-23. It was something of a landslide from there though, as Miami would score 2 offensive touchdowns plus a defensive touchdown (which doesn't count here) to finish with 45 points on the board -- a mark where you're guaranteed a win so long as you're not UNC or Duke.

Pessimism 2, Optimism 0

Over/Under 125 Rushing Yards for Duke Johnson

Actual Number: 184 Rushing Yards

That's right, Duke Johnson went for close to 2 bills on only 22 carries -- for those keeping score back home, that's a solid 8.4 yards per carry. What that means is that every time he got the ball, Miami almost had a first down. Which is actually irresponsible, since they were averaging over 14 yards per passing attempt for a composite of 10.4 yards per play.

Pessimism 3, Optimism 0

Over/Under 17.5 Pass Attempts for Georgia Tech

Actual Number: 19 Pass Attempts

This isn't so much the problem as the mark of 6 completions on those 19 attempts. What I don't understand is how the first 3 games saw Vad Lee throw for between 50 and 65 percent completions, while the last two games have been awful passing, with even Justin Thomas getting in on the fun this week. I'm fine with promoting the "Paul Johnson Flying Circus" if it actually flies and goes somewhere. However, when it's sputtering mid-air and threatening to crash and burn, I'll be a lot more hesitant to leave the ground.

More attempts mean a struggling rushing attack, so this one goes to the pessimists as well.

Pessimism 4, Optimism 0

Over/Under 299.5 Rushing Yards for Georgia Tech

Actual Number: 335 Rushing Yards

Woo!! We struggled with some things again this week, but thankfully our rushing attack was back to normal after only 129 yards against Virginia Tech. No 100-yard rushers this week, but David Sims went for 77 (almost 5 yards per carry), Deon Hill went for 47, and Robert Godhigh and Charles Perkins each went for 39 yards. This is a performance our team HAS to build on for the weeks ahead.

Pessimism 4, Optimism 1 (on the board!)

Over/Under 5.5-Point Margin of Victory for Miami

Actual Number: 15 Points

I really thought that this game would be kept to 10 or less, but the floodgates opened in the fourth quarter and Georgia Tech was down for the count. It doesn't look good and doesn't feel good, and we're going to have a tough time finding the positives from this game. That's how it goes though.

Pessimism 5, Optimism 1

Weekly Shout-Outs

Our first shout-out this week goes to the weekend MVPs, Dive Keep and Pitch and mrnuttle, both of whom went 5 for 6. DKP thought that Georgia Tech wouldn't manage 300 rushing yards, while mrnuttle thought that Georgia Tech would stop short of 17.5 passing attempts. Those were wrong, but everything else between the two of them was correct.

With the 5-1 performance, DKP (23-7) pulls one pick closer to tying our leader pulindian (25-5), who went 4-2 this week.

This week's LVP, with an uncharacteristically poor foresight, was dhbartlett, who went 0 for 6 in this game. dhbartlett was 15-9 coming into this weekend, good for 5th overall. He drops to 8th place, with a dead even 15-15.

Our last shout-out goes to GoalieLax, who joined us this week just in time to go 1-5. Welcome to the show, kid.

This Week's Results

Correct Incorrect Percent User Correct Incorrect Percent
Dive Keep and Pitch 5 1 83% packerman 2 4 33%
mrnuttle 5 1 83% 4Natlchamps 1 5 17%
acedarney 4 2 67% GoalieLax 1 5 17%
GTJonny 4 2 67% PeterInVA 1 5 17%
pulindian 4 2 67% dhbartlett 0 6 0%
The_GT_LineageX11 4 1 80% Dwalk1217 0 0 0%
AugustaJacket 3 3 50% jchens_GT 0 0 0%
ClavinCliff 3 3 50% kizzak 0 0 0%
Joey Weaver 3 3 50% MagnaCarterGT 0 0 0%
richman0610 3 3 50% Matt Mills 0 0 0%
Atlanta's original team 2 4 33% pswole GT 0 0 0%
Buddy Smiggins 2 4 33% selwonk 0 0 0%
jabbajacket 2 4 33% tdot6 0 0 0%
JacksonJacket 2 4 33% zachwreck 0 0 0%
JohnHeisman 2 4 33%
Weekly Entrant Success Rate: 44.5% (53-66)

Week 5 Leaderboard

Correct Incorrect Percentage User Correct Incorrect Percentage
pulindian 25 5 83.3% jabbajacket 12 16 42.9%
Dive Keep and Pitch 23 7 76.7% acedarney 11 7 61.1%
richman0610 21 9 70.0% JohnHeisman 11 13 45.8%
packerman 20 10 66.7% selwonk 10 2 83.3%
Joey Weaver 17 13 56.7% MagnaCarterGT 10 8 55.6%
GTJonny 15 9 62.5% 4Natlchamps 9 15 37.5%
ClavinCliff 15 15 50.0% kizzak 8 4 66.7%
dhbartlett 15 15 50.0% pswole GT 8 10 44.4%
jchens_GT 14 4 77.8% mrnuttle 7 5 58.3%
The_GT_LineageX11 14 11 56.0% Dwalk1217 3 3 50.0%
JacksonJacket 14 16 46.7% Matt Mills 3 3 50.0%
PeterInVA 14 16 46.7% zachwreck 3 3 50.0%
AugustaJacket 13 11 54.2% GoalieLax 1 5 16.7%
Buddy Smiggins 13 11 54.2% tdot6 0 1 0.0%
Atlanta's original team 12 12 0.5
Season Entrant Success Rate: 56.8% (337-256)

This concludes Week 5. It was marginally better than Week 4, which is better than saying it was worse. I hope we all go 6-0 next week and Georgia Tech whips BYU, however improbable statistics says that may be.

Link to the spreadsheet being used to track these, as well as my weekend selections: click.

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