Over/Under 24.5 Points Allowed by Georgia Tech's Defense
(Note: As with last week, this does not count defensive or special teams BYU touchdowns.)
This line is identical to last week's, but I'm interested to see how the numbers change on who picks what. BYU comes in ranked 80th in the country in scoring offense with a little over 27 points per game, being boosted by performances against poor scoring defenses Texas and Middle Tennessee State. Meanwhile, Georgia Tech is the nation's 24th-ranked scoring defense, allowing just over 19 points per game, even with last week's 45 points allowed to Miami. It should also be noted that BYU is a run-heavy offense averaging 5 yards per carry, while Georgia Tech defends well against the run (generally) and allowed 4 yards per carry only once in 4 games prior to last week against Miami.
I'll say the same thing I said against Virginia Tech. I don't think Georgia Tech gives up many points in this game. The elevation and fatigue factors are the only things I could see causing the Yellow Jacket defense to wear out and open the floodgates towards the end of the game.
Under 24.5 Points Allowed by Georgia Tech's Defense
Over/Under 3.75 Yards Per Carry for Georgia Tech
This one will be tricky. BYU is 31st nationally, allowing 3.49 yards per carry on the season. Only Utah State last week has been able to surpass 4 yards per carry (they ended with 5.31 ypc). Meanwhile, Georgia Tech is 22nd nationally with 5.26 yards per carry, even standing at 4.8 yards per carry if we throw out the Elon game to start the year. The Jackets will be up against a defensive front we're plenty familiar with after last season (3.34 yards per carry was a season low), and we've had blocking issues in our last few games, but somehow this game strikes me as one when we can make this happen.
Over 3.75 Yards Per Carry for Georgia Tech
Over/Under 3.5 Offensive Drives Started by Justin Thomas
You all know the story by now, where Vad has had a rough couple of games and Thomas has been stepping it up. Thomas got 2 drives last week, and you get the feeling that Coach Johnson is losing a bit of patience with Lee. Is this week, against a tough front 7 of BYU, the week that Thomas sees a spike in playing time? You may disagree with me, but I think...
Under 3.5 Offensive Drives Started by Justin Thomas
Over/Under 16.5 Passing Attempts for Georgia Tech
The numbers say that we're averaging 16.4 passing attempts per game this season, although the splits would tell you we average 13 passes per game in wins and 21.5 passes per game in losses -- no shock there that the more we have to pass, the more we're losing by. This becomes a bit of a "prediction" type of question, but also know that we can definitely win with the passing game if we need a two-minute drill or something equivalent. Up to you to make the call on what this will look like.
Over 16.5 Passing Attempts for Georgia Tech
Over/Under 1.5 Turnovers Created by Georgia Tech's Defense
Sophomore QB Taysom Hill is averaging 1 INT per game so far, actually hitting that exact number in each game. Chalk one of those up for our game, but then consider that he might be passing a little more if our defense holds up against the run like I'm expecting/hoping it will. This could also play a huge factor in how the game turns out, especially if Georgia Tech can create an easy score. (Remember, last year Isaiah Johnson's pick-six was the only touchdown Georgia Tech scored outside of Jamal Golden's kickoff return for a touchdown. Also remember that both are now injured.) I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that Georgia Tech creates at least two turnovers this game and it has an impact on how things turn out.
Over 1.5 Turnovers Created by Georgia Tech's Defense
Over/Under 6.5-Point Margin of Victory for BYU
This is the moment of truth, isn't it? And no, I'm not referring to how this is the last pick of the week. This game is unbelievably huge for this team and program. A win here, and an 8-win finish is completely within reach. A loss here, and the Pittsburgh game likely becomes the deciding factor on whether we make a bowl game or not. You know it, I know it, the coaches know it, and you'd better know the players know it too. I think this is a signature, magical win for this team and program. They know their backs are against the wall, and I think they come out and play like it.
I might get burned to the ground for this after this game, but I'm taking Tech against the spread AND straight up.
Under 6.5-Point Margin of Victory for BYU
|Dive Keep and Pitch||23||7||76.7%||acedarney||11||7||61.1%|
|Atlanta's original team||12||12||0.5|
Those are my picks for this weekend, wishful as they may be. Your turn, readers.