July 23, 2012; Greensboro, NC, USA; Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets head coach Paul Johnson speaks to reporters during the ACC media day at the Grandover Resort in Greensboro NC. Mandatory Credit: Sam Sharpe-US PRESSWIRE
Two weeks ago I asked the FTRS Community to submit their predictions for how Georgia Tech will fare this fall. Each of you that participated submitted how confident you were of Georgia Tech winning each individual game this fall, in the form of a win percentage. Once I had all of the predictions I was able to do some fancy schmancy arithmetic and calculate an average amount of wins for Georgia Tech this year, as predicted by our readers. We had 65 readers contribute so we have a pretty good idea of how confident our readers are about Georgia Tech's chances this fall. Y'all voted and Georgia Tech is predicted to win 8.3 games this year, with 9-3 more likely than 7-5. Inside we will look into the numbers a little more in depth.
The Standard Deviation (a statistical measure that looks at the relative spread of values, not just the average) for the season totals was .83, so most people were in line with the average. Only one person, who I will not mention, predicted us to win 6 games while 4 readers think we will win 10 games. There were only 3 games that on average Georgia Tech is the under dog. Our readers essentially think our upcoming game with Virginia Tech is a wash, predicting Georgia Tech to beat Virginia Tech 49% of the time. Surprisingly, at least to me, you guys think we are a bigger underdog to Clemson than Virginia Tech, but we would still win 48% of the time. Unfortunately we would only beat UGA 37% of the time. You guys were most split on the UGA game and the UNC game. We had some really really really low values for the UGA game that probably had a lot to do with the large differences, and I am not sure about the UNC game, what do you guys think?
So how does our guess of 8.3 wins line up the rest of the predictions around the land? Football Outsiders, in their annual preseason almanac, predicted us to win 7.7 games. 64% of people who voted in Bill C's preview of Georgia Tech defined 9 wins as a successful year, which falls in line with our prediction of somewhere between 8-9 wins. The excellent and thorough preview from Pre-Snap Read pegs us at 8 wins this year. It seems that the people who voted in our poll are a little more confident in Georgia Tech's season than most national writers (and after sipping the Kool-aid at From The Rumble Seat all off-season I can see why) but all in all I am very confident with how you guys did in predicting our season...although, 12-0 would be a great regular season.
Brian Fremeau just came out with his weekly predictions and has Virginia Tech winning 72% of the time
If you want all the data then here it is