What should Stephen Hill expect from the 2012 NFL Draft?
by BirdGT on Jan 9, 2012 8:00 AM EST
in Georgia Tech Football
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Let's start with the basic statistics of I-A receivers taken in the NFL Draft. 124 college wide receivers have been drafted in the past four NFL Drafts. 84 of them were from BCS conferences (67.7%) while 13 of them were from the ACC (10.5%). The average college receiver was taken 126th overall (4th round) while the average ACC receiver was taken 90th overall (3rd round). The average receiver drafted from a I-A football team averaged 61 catches on the season, 879 yards, and 7 touchdowns. For comparison's sake, Demaryius Thomas had 46 catches, 1,154 yards, and 8 touchdowns. If you wish to continue, click the jump...
The first thing that strikes me as the biggest indicator of receiver's draft stack (statistically speaking) is catches. How many highlight reel plays can he put on film and give to an NFL scout? No receiver has been drafted in the past four seasons with less than 30 catches in Division I-A football. None. Stephen Hill...28 receptions. This is good enough for 287th most receptions amongst 2011's Division I-A receivers.
Out of 110 Division I-A wide receivers drafted, the lowest yardage total in the last four drafts was Patrick Williams out of Colorado with 322 yards on the season. Stephen Hill had 820 yards receiving in 2011. This would have ranked him 58th in yardage amongst receivers drafted since 2008. The sad fact of this story, however, is that 99 receivers eligible for the 2008-2010 Drafts had more receiving yardage than Stephen Hill and went undrafted. Hill currently ranks 67th amongst 2011's Division I-A receivers in total receiving yards.
The average Division I-A receiver drafted from 2008-2010 had around 7 to 8 receiving touchdowns and 14.2 yards per catch. Stephen "Big Play" Hill is probably going to hang his hat on these stats in his interviews. He scored a touchdown every 5.6 receptions as opposed to the average drafted receiver scoring a TD every 8.4. That's 49% faster. He racked up an amazing 29.3 yards per reception, which was 105% longer than the average drafted receiver's yards per catch at 14.2. Hill's agent is probably going to force the "Hill didn't get enough balls argument" down every NFL teams' throats over the next few months. I guess Stephen Hill is just going to have to explain how Demaryius Thomas racked up so many more catches in the exact same offense.
My prediction is that he is a very late round pick or undrafted. He may have some measurables but I think the rawness will be too much for NFL teams, the lack of production hurts him a lot, and the drops certainly don't help. He is literally 5 or 6 ugly drops away from being a legitimate receiver pickup in the 2012 NFL Draft. Do you have any thoughts on the matter?
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Pretty much what you said
Impressive, impressive athlete who’s a great blocker and made some outstanding catches at times, but his inconsistency in catching balls that hit him in the hands/gut and his lack of running complex routes (did he run anything beyond a fly, hitch, or post route all year?) will leave him as a 6th round pick at BEST in my eyes. There’s just too much crucial stuff missing for an NFL wide receiver for him to be a legitimate draft pick.
The Church of Paul Johnson - There's not much to it outside of whooping ass and giving haters the finger. To HELL With georgie!
lack of running complex routes
I heard the same thing about Thomas and it didn’t seem to hurt him.
by Dive Keep and Pitch on Jan 9, 2012 9:12 AM EST up reply actions
Exactly
Other than that, all the other stuff is true.
From The Rumble Seat -Drinkin' whiskey clear since 2008.
"You could spend the next fifteen seconds of your life watching a man and a tiger scream together, or you could be an idiot."
Fact.
All depends on the Combine
He’s got time to work on his skills and if he is fast and catches the ball at the Combine he’ll shoot up to a 3rd or 4th rounder because of his size. Otherwise it’s Free Agent City.
That would be his wish I suppose
Bird’s article pretty well covers the topic and what you have alluded to may be why Hill is taking a gamble on coming out early. The problem is that he will have an awful lot to prove. An NFL team might be willing to coach up a player like Tebow because, in spite of his lack of pro style offensive experience, he proved that he is a great athlete. Not many teams will want to risk their draft choice on a player that may be two or three years away from being ready to start.
Man, I wish he would wait but I still hope that if he goes through with this it works out. Not just for his sake; I also want Tech to continue to place wide receivers in the NFL to knock down the myths and improve CPJ’s recruiting options.
by Atlanta's original team on Jan 9, 2012 9:14 AM EST up reply actions
I agree with this analysis...
I think he will get drafted 4th or 5th round based on the upside related to his physical tools. His height, speed, and leaping ability will raise him over other prospects…with maybe the only knock there being his skinnier frame. Plus, like BeyBey, he showed the ability to make highlight reel catches, win several of his 1-on-1 jump ball opportunities, and a willingness and capacity to block downfield.
I think a showcase game (like Seniors get) would have greatly helped him though…it would have given him reps in a more conventional pro-style passing tree.
"Reach down in there...TURN THAT DAMN THING UP!" - Coach Paul Johnson
I've got to think
there’s something more than his desire to play in the NFL. I’m sure most people have told him to stay in school another year, but he seems adamant about coming out still. Kind of reminds me of Jerrard Tarrant.
I don't know if he will be drafted but
someone will put him on a practice squad and see how he does. I think he has a chance, but it might all depend on whether he can contribute on special teams (like a Kevin Cone).
The x factor here
is an ability and willingness to block. Many will argue that this is the reason that Bay-Bay was the first WR taken in 2010, before Dez Bryant. Combine this with Bay-Bay proving everyone wrong about the lack of complex routes and Stephen’s outstanding physical attributes and teams will look at him as a value pick, seeing how low he’ll go before they pick him up. Some team will jump the gun though and pick him up ~3rd round.
Go Jackets, go America.
THWG.
by JohnHeisman on Jan 9, 2012 11:48 AM EST via Android app reply actions
Wow, third round . . .
They will have to start referring to Tech as “Receiver Institute” after that.
by Atlanta's original team on Jan 9, 2012 12:11 PM EST up reply actions
A big difference between Hill and Thomas
is Thomas’ nasty stiff arm as we all witnessed last night. I never really saw Hill stiff arm a D1 defender like Thomas did.
I wonder how he’s gonna support him wobbling off the field countless times after wide open, 110% TDs, that were dropped.
He really should have stayed in school.
This is my Family Tradition
by The_GT_LineageX11 on Jan 9, 2012 1:34 PM EST reply actions
I know WCU isn't D1 but this was still awesome...
I agree with you, another year would have benefited both SH and Tech. BeyBey was physical and dominant…so dominant that it wasn’t a huge shock to see him go pro as a junior. That being said, if SH got marginally better and filled out his frame a bit more (maybe to 6’5" 215 or so)…he still, in all likelihood, would have risen to no more than a 2nd or 3rd round pick.
"Reach down in there...TURN THAT DAMN THING UP!" - Coach Paul Johnson
Needs work
Playing another season would improve his chances imo, but whatever. He’s already gone in my mind. Good luck to him and I hope he goes #1 overall cause I like seeing Tech WR’s destroy punk CB’s in the NFL.
From The Rumble Seat -Drinkin' whiskey clear since 2008.
"You could spend the next fifteen seconds of your life watching a man and a tiger scream together, or you could be an idiot."
Fact.
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