Stephen Hill Come Back!
by RamblinWreck7 on Jan 13, 2012 12:55 AM EST
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PrintThis message is directed to Stephen Hill.
I don't know what your reasons are for entering the NFL draft so I will provide a few reasons that it would be good for you to stay in school.
1. Academically: If you come back for your senior year of football at Georgia Tech, you will be able to graduate and finish your degree. This is a big pro for coming back to school because it allows you to be better prepared for the future. You wouldn't have to return to college to finish your degree like you would if your leave early for the NFL.
2. Financially: This is another great reason to come back for your senior season. You may think this seems wrong, but where you get drafted determines the value of the contract you will get if you are drafted. After looking up draft projections, I've seen you going anywhere from undrafted all the way to the 3rd round. It will be very difficult to get drafted as a 4th or 3rd rounder unless you refine your skills as a wide receiver quickly before the upcoming NFL draft. You have been blessed with great size and athleticism, but that is not the most important part of being a WR as you probably know.
But let's say you come back for your senior year. If you put in a lot of work this offseason and next year by working very hard on your catching, route running, and other aspects of a being a wide receiver, then you will see an improvement in your production. All of this combined with a successful season next year will raise your draft stock higher. You may lose a year of earning a salary in the NFL, but the rewards of becoming a higher draft pick will be worth it. You will be a better WR than you are right now and you will earn a better contract, more high paying contract as a higher draft pick.
I'm not sure of your reasons for declaring for the NFL draft, but whatever happens, we support you and hope your career turns out great!
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You can always dream bro!
Better to have died a small boy than to drop this football - John Heisman FromTheRumbleSeat
by Winfield Featherston on Jan 13, 2012 9:22 AM EST reply actions
An Impassioned Plea
A general rule of thumb is to trust other people to know what is best for them and to make their own decisions, even when it appears they are making the wrong decisions.
Players leaving early for the pros unfortunately brings in some variables that make that harder to do.
Did they get good advice? Were they unduly influenced from a particular source who may have had their own personal motivations for pushing a particular way? And what do you do with brain research which tells us that the decision-making part of the brain is not fully developed in males until their mid to late 20’s?
Then there are all the points you raise plus one that you could have clarified more. As I understand it there is statistical evidence that suggests that one of the key factors determining your long range earnings potential is your starting salary. So even if Hill gives up a year of salary now the more important question is whether he would gain a higher starting salary by waiting a year and getting a higher draft placement. Of course part of his decision may be based on the belief that he would have more competition in the draft next year than he will have this year.
Personally, I think he is gone and the best thing we can hope for is that he lands somewhere and perpetuates the idea that Tech turns out good receivers, thus making our recruiting of such easier and easier each year.
by Atlanta's original team on Jan 13, 2012 9:32 AM EST reply actions
You can't apply
regular job statistics to the NFL. It doesn’t really work that way.
You may have proof for this
but that would surprise me. A starting salary is usually a statement of how valuable the company thinks you are going to be in the long run. Early and fast promotions usually put you in another salary tier at which point even if you don’t perform to expectation you will still be ahead of the game due to the usual advancements and cost of living increases. I would think the NFL would not be too different. So even if the guy with the first round dollars and signing bonus doesn’t “save the franchise” as long as he keeps playing I would think he would still come out ahead of the guy who was a “bargain basement” pick-up who still must earn incremental increases off of a smaller base salary compared to the guy who started already well into the upper six figures.
So my point is if Hill starts off as an unsigned or last pick, missing that salary for one year could easily be made up by a higher draft round the following year which not only would not only double his salary but put him on a higher salary track long term.
by Atlanta's original team on Jan 13, 2012 1:45 PM EST up reply actions
The other iffy assumption...
is that Stephen Hill’s draft stock improves with another year playing in college. If it doesn’t improve, and the probability of injury most likely removes him from draft consideration, then this might end up being the wise choice after all.
"Reach down in there...TURN THAT DAMN THING UP!" - Coach Paul Johnson
That is always the other consideration.
Which might be why so many players seem to take the money and run rather than wait around and risk never getting to play. Of course, no one knows, but I would bet he would get better with one more year. He may just feel like, “If I am going to work that hard to improve my game in the off season I might as well be doing it for the pros.”
by Atlanta's original team on Jan 13, 2012 2:18 PM EST up reply actions
Even without injury
if his draft position doesn’t increase, then he’ll have lost hundreds of thousands of dollars that he’ll never get back.
The year he stayed in school
and didn’t get paid.
But he'll get paid
for an additional year at the back of the contract. You can make the claim that he will in fact make more by staying in because the rookie wage scale increases every year with league revenues.
It's not that one contract. It's his entire career.
There’s no reason to assume that starting in the NFL a year later will make him a better player when he’s thirty three than he would be if he started a year earlier.
I see your point
You’re assuming he’ll still be playing until he decides to retire of old age. That’s likely not the case, but if it is, I doubt he’ll be short on money.
No, he could get injured
or get but, but, unless that happens in a first, early season, staying a year at Tech isn’t going to affect it. If he gets hurt in that game against Green Bay three years from now, then he will have lost a year pay by returning to Tech (and the income from it, if he invests some).
The only way staying will be a good decision financially is if his draft position goes up significantly, like from one round to another.
After the rookie contract
expires, that player is a free agent. If he’s good, teams will pay more for him than if he’s not, regardless of the round he was drafted or his previous salary. And if multiple teams want him, he’ll go to the highest bidder, which especially works well for a premium position group that may not have many available players in free agency or the draft. NFL salaries are very volatile, and the players have to get what they can because if they don’t perform, for whatever reason, they’re out.
For instance, an example that I’m familiar with is Derrick Harvey. He was drafted by the Jaguars 8th overall in 2008 and given a $24M dollar contract. After being cut in 2011 following an underwhelming career, he signed with the Broncos for something near the veteran minimum, was inactive for most games, and is on the verge of falling out of the league.
On the other hand, Bobby McCray was drafted in the 7th round in 2004 and produced well. In 2008, the Saints signed him to a $20M contract, where he remained with the team until after their Super Bowl season. They released him because he wasn’t performing as well as he did with the Jaguars in 04-08, and now he’s out of the league.
The problem is that most NFL players only last a few years in the league.
Getting a second contract is the exception, not the rule.
by first and thom on Jan 13, 2012 2:44 PM EST up reply actions
That is correct
and the value of the second contract is not necessarily proportional to their previous contract.
So which one made more money?
:-)
by Atlanta's original team on Jan 13, 2012 4:49 PM EST up reply actions
On the second contract...
Bobby McCray. It’s hard to tell how much they each “made” because neither stayed the full length of the contract, some money is guaranteed and some isn’t, and there are all kinds of incentives. Bobby McCray also earned almost $2M as a restricted free agent after his rookie contract expired.
In summary, they probably ended up making about the same, even though their draft positions were drastically different. It’s a performance-based league, and if Stephen Hill goes and performs like an All-Pro, he’ll get paid like an All-Pro. If he doesn’t, then he won’t.
Do we know anything about his family's financial situation?
That was always the reason in the 70’s given for an early jump to the Pros. I’m not talking about, “I’m’a buy Momma a new house”, but more to the effect that they need the athlete to step up and help out, etc.
You'd do it for Randolph Scott!
RANDOLPH SCOTT!
by DressHerInWhiteAndGold on Jan 13, 2012 9:58 AM EST reply actions
That was BeyBey's situation
tough background, but raised well and really wanted to start giving back. (The NCAA should note, of course, that he also gave back the $312 dollars in clothing with the tags still on when he was told it was from a friend of an agent!) I hope Hill has the same reason, but I suspect he just isn’t doing well in school and sees this as his time to sidestep it for a shot at the League. Either way it can be good for Tech.
I met her on the campus, sir, cheering the Brave and Bold.
Hell, he's gonna see BeyBey
light it up tonight, get stars in his eyes, and he’s signing an agent Monday!
You'd do it for Randolph Scott!
RANDOLPH SCOTT!
by DressHerInWhiteAndGold on Jan 14, 2012 2:02 PM EST reply actions
or not
You'd do it for Randolph Scott!
RANDOLPH SCOTT!
by DressHerInWhiteAndGold on Jan 15, 2012 1:33 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
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