SEC Expansion
by orientalnc on Sep 7, 2011 11:54 AM EDT
in Georgia Tech Athletics
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The SEC accepted Texas A&M as its 13th team this morning. There is a possible glitch in Baylor's withdrawal of their agreement for the Aggies leave the Big12. I expect that won't last long, as they really have little leverage at this point. The next move by the SEC is the one that may affect us.
More below the fold:
The SEC has three possible expansion options:
1- continue to expand westward
2- expand eastward
3- expand within their existing footprint
Westward expansion would put Missouri and Oklahoma in play, as well as another Texas school. The SEC could decide a full frontal assault on the Big 12 is their best option. In that case they could add Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech for a neat 16 team conference with clear East/West divisions:
West: Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, LSU, Arkansas, Mississippi, and Mississippi State
East: Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Georgia, Florida, and South Carolina
This would give them most of the Big 12 TV market and lots of national appeal. This leaves Kansas, Kansas State and Missouri to join the Big Ten. Don't be surprised to see Notre Dame relent and make it the Big 16. The biggest question is where does this leave Texas, whose greed set this whole thing in motion. I think they are headed for the PAC-16.
Eastward expansion is more trouble for us. It does not make sense for the SEC to raid the ACC of Virginia Tech and not get a NC team, but which one? The NC schools have very long ties to each other and those rivalries are very thick with tradition and appeal for their fan bases. Clemson and FSU might be interested, but what does the SEC gain? I think this is option doesn't look likely. VPI might join if asked, but Virginia politicians made a big deal about VPI and UVa being a package deal, so it doesn't make sense to think they would go by themselves. I cannot see UVa in the SEC. Would West Virginia and Pittsburgh join the SEC? Interesting to think about. These possibilities put the ACC in a state of flux that does not bode well.
Expansion in existing footprint could include us. This is the least likely, so I have a hard time getting too deep into the possibilities. Tech, FSU, Clemson, another Florida team, and maybe another team from Texas are possibilities. It does not seem to work and would not make much sense financially for the SEC.
Assuming the SEC moves west, which I think is most likely, the ACC has a lot of options. I tink a 16 team league would be appealing to the traditional ACC schools as it would return the basketball season to some form of normalcy and make the tournament interesting again. I like raiding the Big East most of all, especially Rutgers, UConn, West Virginia and Pittsburgh.
Your thoughts?
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If Expansion Is the Way of the Future
and there is no way around it then I too like the idea of Rutgers, UConn, West Virginia and Pittsburgh for the ACC. I think West Virginia and Pittsburgh are two teams that on any given year can be as good as anybody in the country. Pittsburgh creates a rivalry with a another conference given that Penn State of the Big Ten is Pittsburgh’s natural rival.
UConn and Rutgers give the “Eastern” end of our conference some regional rivalries and are both teams that will recruit much better once they are in a powerhouse conference like ours. As for the SEC, anything they do by way of expansion will doom them to mediocrity. :-)
by Atlanta's original team on Sep 7, 2011 12:57 PM EDT reply actions
I'm in more of a favor for Syracuse over Rutgers/UCONN
Though I’d need to ask for input from BCI about which one to drop. I’m in more inclined to drop Rutgers as the only thing that will ever truly give you the NYC market is Notre Dame sports and Syracuse Basketball (when it’s a top 5 team). Plus Rutgers adds nothing but another UVA/Wake Forest like football history, a basketball program that is not very good, no real baseball/lacrosse/soccer interests and a non-destination campus. just my thoughts
Don't give up, don't ever give up ~ Jim Valvano
CFB RE-alignment
If you are going to think about re-alignment you have to think about TV Contracts, politics and academics – all come into play and move the pieces in funny ways.
Once the lawsuit is cleared up – which will happen eventually but may take some money or other things to go away SEC will look to get to probably 14 now and 16 eventually.
The one issue the SEC has is that for all its power in college football, and it has alot, it is not in the most advantageous position of the conferences. Due to its ESPN contract it has to expand outside of its footprint for the contract to be renegotiated and more money given. That eliminates FSU, Clemson, GT from the mix. VT wanted in the ACC for 50 yrs and used political strong arming to get there. it’s administration prefers the ACC and is tied to UVA. That makes them unlikely.
If SEC goes East to balance TAMU then WVU is the most likely option. If it goes West the most likely option is Missou. SEC would love OK, but OK does not want to go to the SEC. It wants to go to the PAC12 where its president can match it up with Stanford, Cal and UCLA rather than Ole Miss, Miss St and ARK.
Missou will be an interesting case. Missou would like to go to the Big 10, but the Big 10 has simply ignored it for 2 yrs. Will it wait around to see if the Big 10 might take it or will it go ahead and make an aggressive play for the SEC.
If SEC goes West for 13 and 14 it will almost certainly go East for 15 and 16. Most likely would be WVU and L’ville – though I could see Pitt being in play.
PAC12 is going to bide its time and let the Big 12 programs come to it. Key will be can they and TX agree to a deal with the TLN. OK and OSU will definately go to PAC12 if the big 12 falls.
Big 10 will look for AAU schools in major media markets outside its footprint. Schools that meet those requirments include TX, Missou, Rutgers, MD, GT. ND is always a wildcard.
If SEC picks off a Big East school then I think that conference’s football programs start to unravel quickly. That is when Big 10 and ACC will move on Big East. I think Rutgers/Syracuse will split between the Big 10 and ACC. If SEC doesn’t grab Pitt I think ACC would.
From a GT persepcticve there are 2 ultimate possibilities. One is it remains in the ACC (I think this is the most likely option) – hopefully one that has solidified itself as one of the survivors – which I think it will. Big 12 is likely to implode and Big East imo is unstable given its huge size and unequal mix of FB/BB and BB only schools. The seond possiblity is the Big 10. GT will be attractive because it is in a growing market outside its current footprint. That is a plus both from being able to expand the brand into a new area and from a fee revenue standpoint based on the BTN model.
SEC is not and will not be an option for GT. GT is a net negative in revenue for the SEC since it is in a current market. It will also be blocked by multiple SEC schools that don’t want GT in. Finally, it would not be approved by the GT President and academic side.
The academic side has been interesting to watch. A number of the schools SEC is most interested in – TX, OK have no desire to join the SEC because they don’t want to be associated with the conference from an academic standpoint.
RamblinRed
These articles are getting annoying...
Especially people who act like they know what will happen and what won’t happen… this is comming from the comments section. The article at least was pretty good informational wise and not “all knowing.”
Interesting thought on the SEC...
I saw a column with a curious take on GT to the SEC. The writer (I can’t remember who it was) said there could be one big reason for the SEC to want GT in the fold: the Big 10. If the Big 10 grabs GT, it could open up Georgia to recruiters from Penn St, Ohio St, Michigan, etc. The SEC could grab GT to seal off the state. Will it happen? I don’t know, but I thought it was an interesting spin.
As for whether or not GT would want to join the SEC? THAT is an excellent question. Academically, the Big 10 would be a much better fit.
The B1G takes pride in most of its members AAU membership
All but Nebraska have it I think. And GT was just welcomed last year.
Better to have died a small boy than to drop this football - John Heisman FromTheRumbleSeat
by Winfield Featherston on Sep 7, 2011 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Nebraska used to be in the AAU
They got voted out about less than a year after they got into the Big Integer. It apparently had something to do with them not doing enough research as measured by the AAU metrics.
They took the bar! The whole fucking bar!
by Profoundly Vague on Sep 8, 2011 12:09 AM EDT up reply actions
I did it I did it I did it!!
The Church of Paul Johnson - There's not much to it outside of whooping ass and giving haters the finger. To HELL With georgie!
I for one, would love to see Tech back in the SEC
We still have more SEC championships than most of the current members. We were original members of the conference. Our traditional rivals (Georgia, Auburn, Tennessee, Alabama) are in the SEC.
I don’t think there’s any chance it will happen, but if anyone asks my opinion, I’ll be happy to give it.
YOU ARE NOT ALONE SIR!
Whoa did I say that like I meant I was with you on it?…
…maybe that’s cuz I SO AM!!!
In all seriousness, you wanna fill up Bobby Dodd Stadium and get Atlanta out to see games? Have those 4 you mentioned plus Florida and Kentucky in town every year and keep the Clemson rivalry. I think we’d be competitive with them all again after a while and we’d build back a fanbase consisting of more than just 10% non-alumni. Also, it wouldn’t be as weird having us in Bama’s fight song anymore.
My guess....
Mizzou goes B12
Oklahoma and Oklahoma State end up in the Pac 12 – This is all based off Tony Barnhardt on the radio and Andy Staples
ACC gets proactive and takes basketball schools with average / above average football teams like Syracuse, UCONN, WVU and Cincinnati/ USF (more on this later in the week)
Better to have died a small boy than to drop this football - John Heisman FromTheRumbleSeat
by Winfield Featherston on Sep 7, 2011 1:51 PM EDT reply actions
But the real money
is in football. The big basketball money is in the NCAA tournament, which everybody gets.
hoops is not a joke
ACC payout from hoops tourney was 18.7 million. Bowl games was 31.7 million but imagine if we didn’t have Duke, Maryland, NC State, etc. carrying us. The teams of the ACC provide balance for the conference throughout the course of a calendar year financially. If we added two average football programs that brought big time basketball, we could increase our hoops revenue up to Big East dollars (26.1 million from 2011 tourney).
I am strongly in favor of bringing in some hoops programs now. Losing an FSU/Clemson/VT/etc. doesn’t hurt us as long as we maintain 8-9 bowl eligible teams, a BCS bid, and a solid hoops core.
I write stuff From the Rumble Seat.
Power Conferences/BCS
Sure – predicting which teams will go where and all that jazz is all well and good, but the real question is, What affect will all this have on the post season?
I for one absolutely hate the way NCAAF decides the title, I am a BIG fan of tourneys. Will all this realignment be what we need to get rid of the BCS as we know it?
ESPN finalizes their takeover of CFB
4 Regional MetaConferences
16 Teams each Conference
Teams are allowed in only if the CFB team makes so much money that they subsidize the school.
Teams pay players
ESPN replaces NCAA as the LAW. Presidents of Institutions kowtow to Network Executives.
2 pre-season games against non-big conference teams, 16 game season
Playoffs
Frosh draft
Historical rivalries null unless they bring eyeballs to the TV. Red River/Iron Bowl/The Game.
Teams left out of ESPNCFB join HBCU’s and 1AA in AAA ball. They then fold over a number of years as their ability to earn and recruit dries up.
Fans march on WorldWideLeader and firebomb the place.
by DressHerInWhiteAndGold on Sep 7, 2011 7:24 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
WVU
I cannot imagine the ACC taking West Virginia because it is such a piss poor school academically. Florida State was bad, but WVU is bad on a whole different level. Pitt and UConn fit in academically more or less, have ACC-average football teams, and top-notch basketball teams. It would be a big mistake for the ACC to not go after these two schools.
I begrudgingly...
…will agree with that if there’s no possible way for the SEC to take GT, FSU and Clemson as a play to seal up the top talent within the SEC footprint or as rivalry fuel. That’s my first choice. Second choice is the ACC being proactive. And if so, yes, I like Pitt over WV. It’s hard to stomach taking UConn since they’re relatively new to the BCS level. We also need to be thinking of baseball. We’re a strong conference for that to a point where at some schools it’s becoming a money sport. No New England schools are gonna give us that. For that I say it needs to be ECU, UCF or USF – but then there’s academics again…
I was off line all day dealing with storm issues.
Here is my take on the comments to my post.
@ RamblinRed: You may be right about Oklahoma, but I am not sure the the Sooners have a realistic view of their academic rep. Their academic standing is well below UGA and about where FSU stands. The same is true for Texas. It makes good press for them to say the academics in the SEC are not up to their standards, but that ’s BS.
USC and UCLA and Cal Berkley and Stanford and Oregon are head & shoulders above Oklahoma, and the Sooners know it. What is strange, and may negate my argument, is that Colorado is actually worse than Oklahoma. The exercise I recently completed with my HS Senior has been very informative about college academic standing. Oklahoma fits perfectly in the SEC.
As for WVU, there is no real TV market in West Virginia. There is nothing there for the SEC to get. Pitt is another story, but Pitt’s real rivals are not in the SEC. Has Pitt ever played an SEC team not named Ga Tech? For the SEC to expand east requires a suspension of logic. There is no TV market in NC or Virginia that cares about the SEC. The Maryland/DC market is not about football. I bet lacrosse draws almost as many fans as football in DC. As for Louisville. Well, I cannot see a Jesuit school with a small alumni base finding any love in the SEC.
I agree completely about GT. Also about Clemson and FSU.
@ Winfield: The basketball theory is interesting and sort off follows the Big East script. I think the main driver will always be TV money from football. UConn and Rutgers bring the NYC market into an ACC contract. Pitt and WVU will gladly follow their Big East Rivals into an expanded ACC as an act or survival. Plus, the PA market is nice, but Pitt will never deliver Philly. Actually, Rutgers would do more for the Philly market than Pitt.
Think about this for a moment. There are more households in NY, NJ, Conn, and Philly than in the the entire SEC. That is the TV market the ACC is after. The SEC can have Oklahoma or Missouri. The SEC already has its foot in Texas, so what does it gain by adding the Longhorns except a struggle over TV revenue. If the ACC adds Rutgers, and UConn, it has the entire east coast. Pitt and WVU protect its flank and round out two eight team divisions.
Look at this:
BC, Pitt, UConn, Rutgers, Maryland, UVa, VT, WVU in the Northern Division
UNC, NC State, Duke, Wake, GT, Clemson, FSU, and Miami in the Southern Division.
This gives you seven conference games in football with an ACC Championship game that is certain to not be a rematch. In hoops, the 14 game round robin returns for both divisions.
Am I also drinking too much koolaid? Perhaps. But, we shall see.
I grew up with Tech in the SEC and would love to see those rivalries return. But, let’s be realistic. Tech has little in common with most SEC schools and offers little for the SEC. I agree with one point. Tech may be attractive to the Big Ten as a link into the Atlanta TV market, the real love in Atlanta will always be the SEC. The Big Ten is drinking too much koolaid if they think that will change by adding GT.
@GT_Jason: Forget ECU. I live near Greenville, and although some alums might like the Pirates in the ACC, it will never happen as long as UNC and NC State are in the conference. They are a notch above App State and Ga Southern, but just barely. Plus, the academics are somewhere below FSU (exception = medical school). USF and UCF cannot bring TV markets not already available to the ACC and nothing from a prestige standpoint.
Iowa State and the Kansas schools are the big losers in this shift, so do not expect them to go down without a fight.
Where do we come from? What are we? Where are we going?
I was at two Georgia v Pittsburgh games
My father had season tickets, but our family trips were only the opening game against a non-conference team (think Richmond Spiders) and homecoming, which seemed to be Vandy more often than not.
As a consequence, I was at the 1973 game in which Georgia tied Pittsburgh 7-7. I think that was Dorset’s first game.
I also went to the 1977 Sugar Bowl. That one was disappointing. It was Dorset’s last game. Georgia lost 27-3.
I was not at the 1982 Sugar Bowl, which Georgia also lost to Pittsburgh. By that time I had seen the light.
You left out 1975
Georgia lost that one 19-9.
I am not sure why Pittsburgh has Georgia’s number except that they used to field exceptional teams at one time. I always feel like they are just one good season away from returning to that kind of prominence.
by Atlanta's original team on Sep 8, 2011 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions
The first three it was Tony Dorsett
1982 was Dan Marino. A lot of teams lost to Pittsburgh during those years.
Thanks for the reminder.
I had forgotten about those Dorsett era games.
Where do we come from? What are we? Where are we going?
My take
At this point, I really don’t care what happens but for one exception. I don’t want GT or the ACC to sit on their tails and wait to see what happens, because what will happen is they will be left trying to form a conference from the scrap and we’ll be left with a MAC level schedule. The money involved in all of this is absurd, and let’s face it, it’s all about the money. But if I had to choose the most perfect situation, it would be to try going independent again and/or getting back into the SEC.
That’s just my opinion though.
"You could spend the next fifteen seconds of your life watching a man and a tiger scream together, or you could be an idiot."
Fact.
Replace Syracuse for Rutgers and you have a winner. Growing up in NY, Rutgers is not the team most follow – even in the City. Syracuse also has way better basketball than Rutgers and despite Rutgers being “the birthplace of CFB” or whatever they like to say, Syracuse has had much more football success over the years. Regardless, if the Dominos start to tumble I really don’t see the Big East surviving.
I am a georgraphy guy so this is what I would like to see:
To ACC:
WVU
UCONN
Syracuse
Pitt
To the BIG 10:
Rutgers
Notre Dame
Kansas
Missouri
To the SEC:
Louisville
Cinncinatti
TCU
Texas A&M
To the PAC-12:
Oklahoma State
Oklahoma
Texas Tech
Texas
Then the Big 12 Regroups and ends up with:
Baylor
Kansas State
Colorado State
BYU
Boise State
Houston
Air Force
Southern Miss
Iowa State
South Florida
UCF
East Carolina
Army
Navy
Temple
Marshall
or some smaller combination of the left over schools.
Then C-USA, MAC, MWC, WAC, and Sun Belt fight it out for the best remaining programs with many of the lesser schools moving to (what used to be called) I-AA or developing a new (lower) tier of CFB.
Random observations...
Iff the four big conferences (ACC, SEC, B1G, and Pac-12) go into mega-expansion mode:
It’s obvious by now the Big XII will be parted out. C-USA or the WAC or the Mountain West (perhaps a merger of the latter two) could make a run to replace them in the BCS. Indeed, what’s left of the Big XII could resemble the old SWC minus the power schools (i.e., Baylor, Houston, Rice, SMU, TT), and become a non-AQ conference, depending on what these schools’ current conferences do regarding expansion and mergers.
Alternatively, C-USA could poach a number of Sun Belt teams, or (less likely) merge with what’s left of the Big East.
TCU has to be regretting their decision to join the Big East, essentially taking them out of play in this merry-go-round and leaving them with a less-desirable dance partner.
SEC will get whoever it wants and they won’t pursue any teams too far out of region. Ditto for the B1G (Tech to the B1G makes sense academically and TV-moneywise but not geographically, and gate still matters). Pac-12 is less of a draw, only because of how far-flung they are geographically and logical expansion limits it to WAC and MWC teams. The Texas/OK schools could go to the Pac-12, but the geography is not in their favor and after how t.u. showed their tail in the Big XII they may get left out in the cold, unless the SEC picks them up.
Indeed, if the SEC rules out logical schools in their current footprint (Louisville, maybe Memphis, Tech, FSU, Miami, Clemson, UCF, USF, Southern Miss, maybe Troy), they won’t have much choice other than to go west to the old Big XII, unless they make a big coup and get NCSU by some fluke.
Pitt will not go to the ACC, let alone the SEC. They will stay in the Big East (whatever form it takes), but really want to get in the B1G and will go if invited. Ditto for Cincy.
The SEC will not pick up WVU. Not enough upside there moneywise and it will only perpetuate the SEC’s perception of being academically "lite" (or redneck, take your pick).
What would be interesting is if some of the SEC schools want to go after Tech (and even Clemson) to address the academic perception of the conference. georgie may not like it, and it could cause a domino/MAD effect of the SEC going after FSU if, say, Florida gets Tech and/or Clemson in and georgie and USCe want revenge.
VPI will not go to the SEC…not after all the political capital they burned to get in the ACC with UVA.
Select Big East schools make sense for the ACC…most notably ‘Cuse, Rutgers, UConn (even if they are n00bs in D1-A), and USF. UCF also makes sense. The Big East can replace USF and UCF with FIU/FAU. The Big East can keep ECU (and can pick up Appy State when they go D1-A).
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