GT - MTSU: By The Numbers

by Jesse28 on Sep 14, 2011 8:56 AM EDT in Georgia Tech Football

In Week 2 of the beautiful college football season, Georgia Tech defeated Middle Tennessee State University 49-21. We've all had time to formulate our thoughts on the game and with a 2-0 start to the season I think that everyone should be feeling good about the team overall. Things are improving and I'll show you where after the jump!

Last week, we went over some of the numbers (YPP, TO margin, etc) from last season and where Georgia Tech fell in comparison to the national averages, both offensively and defensively. We also went over the results of the first game of the season against Western Carolina University. Now we can look at this past weeks results against Middle Tennessee State University and see how that affects the overall numbers.

First the offense. GT rushed for 382 yards on 65 attempts (5.88 ypp) and threw for 214 yards on just 10 attempts (21.4 ypp) for a total of 7.95 ypp. They also scored 49 points taking 75 total plays to do so for 0.65 ppp. For the season that puts us at 9.05 total ypp (1st), 6.01 ypp rushing (8th), 22.27 ypp passing (1st), and 0.81 ppp (2nd). Compared to last year's averages, that currently about 0.5 ypp better rushing, 16 ypp better passing, and 0.5 ppp better overall.

Now for the defense. Al Groh's 3-4 allowed 147 yards rushing on 29 attempts (5.07 ypp) and 195 yards on 35 attempts (5.57 ypp) for a total of 5.34 ypp. They also gave up 21 points on 64 plays for 0.33 ppp. For the season that puts the Tech defense allowing 4.56 total ypp (34th), 3.64 ypp against the rush (60th), 5.44 ypp against the pass (22nd), and 0.3 ppp. Currently that's about 1 ypp better against the rush, 2 ypp better against the pass, and 0.1 ppp better than last years defense.

3rd down, 4th down, and RZ conversion percentages were all excellent as GT went 8-12, 2-2, and 5-5 respectively. All three are much better than last years numbers and I think we can reasonably expect those number to stay high throughout the season as the Paul Johnson triple option is very efficient at getting those crucial first downs when needed. If I had to choose one to watch, it would be the red zone numbers because I believe that the better defenses Tech will face later in the season will have an impact on our scoring ability within the 20's and because the kicker at this point is still an unknown. The only attempt made so far is the one that was blocked and returned for a TD against WCU.

Tech also found itself on the positive side of the turnover margin again with a +2 against MTSU putting them at +3 for the year. In my opinion it is absolutely crucial to maintain this because one of the biggest issues with this team last season was holding onto the ball as the team ended with a -6 on the year in TO margin.

The disclaimer here is that it's A) a small sample size, and B) the defenses and offenses that Tech will face going forward will get increasingly better and these numbers should be expected to come closer to the norm. Unless, of course, they stay this good against all opponents and just roll through the season, but that would be very optimistic.

So, essentially the numbers look good so far and we should be happy with the results. I know I am and I just hope that it continues through to the Kansas game. The players should be feeling confident and the coaches should be pleased with all the work that went into making this start to the season possible. What I'd like to see next is more of the 3-4 defense from Al Groh. I have seen about 3-4 blitzes in the first two games with very little stunts going on. I'm sure that he is being conservative because he doesn't need to be agressive against teams like WCU and MTSU, but it would be nice to see him unleash the linebackers on Kansas. The offense is fine, but the special teams still has work to do. They are still allowing too many yards on kickoff returns (21.25 yds per - 66th). If this team is going to score a ton of points, then they need to practice kickoff return coverage more often than they do. Those two should go hand-in-hand.

Other than that, TO HELL WITH KANSAS! Any thoughts?

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Comments

As for the rushing totals...

in that first game, I believe that the blocked FG that was returned for a touchdown skews the number much higher as that yardage is counted in their rushing total, not return yardage. I could be wrong on that but I don’t remember Western Carolina going for that large a rushing number without the inclusion of the blocked FG. At any rate the defense is playing much better and getting the offense some turnovers this season.

The best part so far is that the offense is 100% inside the red zone with all touchdowns, as the long field goal was not technically inside the red zone. So far so good for the Yellow Jackets, now they need to keep it going against Kansas on Saturday.

by cuttysark on Sep 14, 2011 9:11 AM EDT reply actions

WCU was effective at running the ball

Late in the game, they ran pretty effectively. A lot of it was padded by the Tech defense just playing back to prevent any more scoring. For instance, there was a 33 yard rush on the second to last play of the game.

by acedarney on Sep 14, 2011 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions

Let's take all of this with a grain of salt

We haven’t exactly played anyone who’s going to go far this season. I see the team being better than last year for sure, but we probably won’t stay at the top in points per play and other stats like that when we play good teams. I’d like to see red zone scoring and turnover differential remain well in our favor as the year progresses though.

by acedarney on Sep 14, 2011 11:08 AM EDT reply actions

That's my point with the disclaimer

I should probably head these posts with that until we actually play some of our tougher ACC opponents.

"You could spend the next fifteen seconds of your life watching a man and a tiger scream together, or you could be an idiot."
Fact.

by Jesse28 on Sep 14, 2011 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions

Well, starting this week...

we’ll be playing a legitimate football team. Kansas isn’t anything to write home about, but they’re probably on par with a Boston College or someone like that. But yeah, any season averages will be skewed until we’re into our ACC schedule a bit.

That’s not to say I don’t like the information. Don’t get me wrong. As I said before, red zone scoring and turnovers are two stats that I’d like to stay in our favor, even with more difficult opponents. That was a big issue last season.

by acedarney on Sep 14, 2011 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions

Don't forget

A lot of the stats are a very mixed bag due to liberal substitution. The 1st team offense has played a little over 3 quarters and the 1st string defense has maybe played 4, but all of that is split between two games.

I have no doubts that if CPJ kept his foot on the gas, we’d have scored over 100 on WCU and over 70 on MTSU. These are teams that we should completely out-class, and for the first time in a while the scoredboard is actually indicating that we completely out-class them.

On defense I think it’s a few things: Al Groh isn’t putting much out there, the true 1st string defense has pretty excellent stats, and the offense is putting a lot of pressure on the defense because we’re scoring really fast in a lot of cases (also it definitely felt like we could relax a little against MTSU because we had them on the ropes so quick).

Overall I think our numbers may stay very similar because stiffer competition will be offset by 1 string staying in for the length of the game.

Kickoff ‘coverage’ isn’t that bad: ie we’re not missing a lot of tackles and guys are staying in their lanes. Overall kickoff coverage performance looks down because we don’t have a kicker that can get the ball high enough and deep enough to let the guys get downfield. If we kick it to the goal line, it’s a low line drive and the returner is up to the 20 before our guys even get there, if we kick it high, it’s being caught at the 15. Just having the kicker get it to the goal line WITH some hang time would make a huge difference. JMHO anyway.

My solution to the kicking issues is that we either send one of our offensive line coaches to a school with tremendous special teams, and he becomes a special teams guru, OR we lose one of our O-line coaches and hire a special teams genius who coaches O-line on the side. I think Johnson has rectified a lot of the coverage and lane issues, but kicking off still hasn’t been solved.

by wreckrod on Sep 14, 2011 11:52 AM EDT reply actions

I wouldn't agree that the KO coverage is ok

I have seen plenty of bad arm tackling and guys bunching in the middle of the field allowing the returner to bounce outside for a large gain. If we are to assume that the teams we will be facing going forward are getting progressively better, then we can reasonably expect that the players are going to block better during their returns and also have better returns. If we are allowing these lesser teams to have an average drive start at the 30 yardline (28.5 to be exact when you remove the two out-of-bounds kicks), then how can we expect this coverage unit to keep better players from returning beyond that?

Here’s the numbers:
Team – Avg KO Yardline, Avg Ret Yardline, Avg Ret yards
WCU – 6.6, 27.00, 20.40
MTSU – 8.5, 33.25, 24.75
Total – 7.44, 29.78, 22.33
Minus OOB – 7.25, 28.5, 21.25

Without going back and timing each and every kick, I can’t argue the kicking aspect, and I agree that it definitely plays a part in things, but even excluding that there is room for improvement. And that’s my overall point. We have to get better.

As for the rest, I completely agree that the splits play a role in the stats, but I wanted to show an overall comparison to last years season in an attempt to chart this year’s team progress. Essentially your comment of…

and for the first time in a while the scoredboard is actually indicating that we completely out-class them

…is exactly what I meant to convey with the numbers listed. We are finally dominating the teams we should dominate and therefore, it should give us hope that we will do better against teams we typically struggle with, i.e. VT, Clemson, etc. The caveats exists, obviously, but I see no reason why we can’t be happy with what Tech has presented us with thus far.

Great points all!

"You could spend the next fifteen seconds of your life watching a man and a tiger scream together, or you could be an idiot."
Fact.

by Jesse28 on Sep 14, 2011 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions

Absolutely right

I didn’t really like the kickoff coverage. I didn’t see it as the kickers fault really, but the coverage guys were just getting blocked easily. The opponent shouldn’t be getting the ball around the 30 yard line every time.

by acedarney on Sep 14, 2011 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions

Kicking off to the other team

scares the hell out of me.

by Atlanta's original team on Sep 14, 2011 5:18 PM EDT reply actions

Ha, finally found my notes on the game

I know this is late, but I watched the game a second time late Sunday night and took notes since I could then stop the action and replay things. Not sure what happened to them, but I just found them this morning.

Pre-Game:
-MTSU rolled out an all blue Model A. The announcer didn’t do a good job of explaining the signifigance imo, but as it happened it didn’t appear to be in a mocking fashion, so I’ll take the copying as a form of flatery.

Q1:
-Special Teams: The 1st two KO’s were shanked out-of-bounds giving MTSU the ball on the 40 each time, the 1st punt return wasn’t even attempted to fair catch it and instead let the ball roll to the 1 yard line, and return coverage still not satisfactory.
-Only one upper-classman on offense (Uzzi) so we should see continuous improvement on offense over the next two years.
-The Zenon TD pass: If an A-back lines up at B-back, chances are it’s not a dive. Wake up MTSU.
-Did anyone else notice Sims truck that DB early in the quarter, second drive I believe? Love it.
-The pitch, counter option, and off guard/tackle dive was working early and often.
-The Hill TD pass was good, but short. *This comes up later.
-Sweeting laying the wood again. Honestly, last year I wasn’t all that impressed with him because I felt he over-commited and risked too much in coverage. This year though, he is absolutely exciting to watch. Anytime a RB gets outside I end up on the edge of my seat because I know Sweeting is going to crush him soon. Keep it up!
-The defense looks good, but there’s not a lot of pressure. I’m assuming the Groh doesn’t want to be aggressive against a team he probably doesn’t have to be and end up getting burned for a big play.

Q2:
-One of the commentators during a conversation about APR at MTSU: “The APR is not showing up tonight for MTSU.” Hilarious, so long as you are not an MTSU fan.
-Baby steps: It took 1.5 quarters to see our first fumble of the game. I suppose that’s an improvement.
-What happened to official reviews and challenges? There was a play that called one of our player’s down because his knee was supposedly on the ground. I replayed it a few times and it didn’t look like it to me. Then again, this game is going to be a blowout, so meh.
-I’m starting to worry about Washington’s arm on the deep balls. They are accurate, but always short, forcing the WR to slow down and wait. That’s no problem against smaller, weaker DB’s, but that’s going to change soon in ACC play.

*At this point I stopped taking as many notes because of the score and we seemd to just be running clock.
Q3:
-Days either can’t see the pitch or is just plain refusing to pitch. In both games thus far, he has not been making the correct read on many of his plays as he isn’t even looking pitch side. Though we typically don’t need the extra points when he is in because we are up by so much, they are still wide-open, easy TD’s and regardless of the game situation, Days should still make the correct read.
-That being said, he did have an excellent big run and TD. At least we know he can run well.

Q4:
-Defense is flying everywhere and is all over the ball carrier. This is a very good sign this late in the game as it shows that even the second and third teamers get after it. I’m not sure where this 3-4 will take us, but I like that Groh has the defense playing overall fundamentally sound.
-After a great TO by the defense, the offense gives it right back up. Not too much of an issue in the fourth quarter, but not something I want to see.
-I like Zenon. He’s just another excellent A-back that we have.

There you have it. Can’t wait to see how we do against Kansas.

From The Rumble Seat -Drinkin' whiskey clear since 2008.

"You could spend the next fifteen seconds of your life watching a man and a tiger scream together, or you could be an idiot."
Fact.

by Jesse28 on Sep 15, 2011 8:22 AM EDT reply actions

Question

What is APR? I don’t remember that conversation during the game, so I probably ignored it.

Also, Washington’s arm is not as strong as Nesbitt’s, but he’s generally more accurate. I think that’s where a lot of improvement is coming from. Also, the receivers are catching the ball, which helps. As we get into the tougher part of the schedule, I don’t think you’ll see as many players wide open, and the accuracy will be crucial.

by acedarney on Sep 15, 2011 10:09 AM EDT up reply actions

NCAA's Academic Progress Rate

It’s basically the NCAA’s way of determining a school’s success rate in graduating athletes. Schools must meet certain requirements of face penalties. During the game, there was a break where they were talking with MTSU’s president about the 100th anniversary of the school and he mentioned that MTSU is always in the top ten (IIRC) schools for APR. The commentator followed that up with the comment above.

Here’s where you can view APR rates, by school, conference, etc.

From The Rumble Seat -Drinkin' whiskey clear since 2008.

"You could spend the next fifteen seconds of your life watching a man and a tiger scream together, or you could be an idiot."
Fact.