Georgia Tech's Passing Numbers Are Consistent Over Time. What Needs To Change In 2011 For Success?
by Winfield Featherston on Aug 4, 2011 12:44 PM EDT
in Georgia Tech Football
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PrintOver the past week I've realized that public perception (includes Tech fans) is so blatantly wrong it's funny. Let the numbers speak for themselves. Lots of people believe that to succeed, Georgia Tech needs to open up the offense more and pass more. But is that going to happen? Does more passing need happen?
No, it's not going to happen. Because it doesn't need to happen.
Nobody realized how much we needed Demaryius Thomas until he had left for the NFL. The receivers who followed him did not , could not, and would not fill in his shoes last year when we needed them the most. With a decrease in the passing threat, defenses were able to sneak up on the Georgia Tech line and focus on the running game, which we do about 82% of the time. That scenario presents pretty good odds to bet on if you're a defensive coordinator. Defenses forced the Yellow Jackets to make something of the passing game and it could not be done.
Paul Johnson Teams And Their Passing Statistics.
Thoughts and analysis after the jump.
Funny to see how relatively consistent Coach Johnson is in his play calling. +/- 20 passing plays doesn't seem to be that big of a difference in the grand theater of college football. Look at his teams' passing completions per year; the numbers bunch even closer together. Every season except 2006 hovers around that 70 pass attempts mark.
But what's the difference between Navy passing statistics and Georgia Tech passing statistics? It's the relationship between the respective schools attempts and completion rates.
As Navy threw the ball more or less, their completion numbers followed. Now what about Georgia Tech?
In 2010, Josh Nesbitt threw 105 times and completed 39 of the passes. Tevin Washington passed 61 times while completing 25 of his attempts
Over three seasons, Georgia Tech has thrown the ball 165, 168, and 168 times. They've been consistent in throwing the ball regardless of who is the receiver. But it is completions that completely fell off last year.
In 2011 Georgia Tech will throw the ball just like they've always done. But to succeed, the Jackets should be expected to catch the ball and produce. Georgia Tech doesn't need to open up their offense. They don't need to abandon anything. It's personnel. A playmaker must takeover.
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It's about effectiveness
If our passing game is effective, the offense overall will improve. Paul Johnson’s two teams with the highest QB rating (2004 and 2009) both had 10+ wins. They don’t need to throw more…just better.
I think you have it right
It’s not that you have to pass more, they just need to be able to pass. If you don’t show the ability to pass, that’s when people start to sneak up. If you throw it twice as many times, but don’t make any more completions, it won’t help your offense at all.
Over the past week I’ve realized that public perception (includes Tech fans) is so blatantly wrong it’s funny. Let the numbers speak for themselves. Lots of people believe that to succeed, Georgia Tech needs to open up the offense more and pass more.
Welcome to my world.
Something else to consider in the whole “pass more” debate is looking at the number of pass attempts per sack for Johnson’s teams over the years. It isn’t pretty.
I wouldn't pay attention to that stat
not applicable to any option-based team
Better to have died a small boy than to drop this football - John Heisman FromTheRumbleSeat
by Winfield Featherston on Aug 4, 2011 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
That also has more to do with the pass play calling.
a.k.a. long passes galore that take 5 seconds to develop behind an already shaky offensive line.
by RamblinWreck7 on Aug 6, 2011 2:08 AM EDT up reply actions
This
I think this is why many want the passing plays to be changed. Waiting until 3rd- or 4th-and-long to try throwing a 20+ yrd pass puts a lot of pressure on both the QB and the WR’s to make something happen or the drive is killed. Changing the offense to pass in short yardage situations and/or shortening those passes to more over the middle type passes could potentially be more effective. Personally, having played both WR and as a DB, I think it’s much more difficult to defend a cutting WR than to defend one streaking down the field.
"You could spend the next fifteen seconds of your life watching a man and a tiger scream together, or you could be an idiot."
Fact.
It's all about timing.
See 4th Quarter against the pig stickers 2 years ago. One catch by DT and stats don’t matter.
by DressHerInWhiteAndGold on Aug 4, 2011 10:37 PM EDT reply actions
It's the completion rate.
Last year tied for highest number of attempts while also being last in results.
by Atlanta's original team on Aug 5, 2011 8:09 AM EDT reply actions
Look at little closer...
… and it’s more than just completion percentage. Yards per completion were down from 22.7 to 17, a 25% drop. So, not only was the team completing a lower percentage of its passes, but the passes it was completing went for fewer yards. Last year’s completion percentage was only off about 18% from 2009 (an 8% absolute decline from a 46% completion rate is an 18% relative decline).
by first and thom on Aug 5, 2011 9:33 AM EDT up reply actions
I did a little more math...
If Tech had 2009’s YPC and 2010’s completion percentage, it would have had 1455 yards. If Tech had 2009’s completion percentage and 2010’s YPC, it would have had only 1330 yards. YPC affected yards more than completion percentage. That’s the B.Thomas effect.
by first and thom on Aug 5, 2011 9:40 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
rec'd.
nice sleuthing dude
Better to have died a small boy than to drop this football - John Heisman FromTheRumbleSeat
by Winfield Featherston on Aug 5, 2011 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions
Thanks for the data, and the rec
It’s so easy that this dawg fan can do it.
by first and thom on Aug 5, 2011 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Wait a minute . . .
Yards per completion actually affected the completion yardage percentage! Wow.
:-)
by Atlanta's original team on Aug 6, 2011 8:46 AM EDT up reply actions
Whatever you say,
But effective passing doesn’t always have to come from a top notch receiver. I mean do you really think that we will have a Demarius Thomas or Calvin Johnson every year? That’s not going to happen so you just can’t blame a 38% completion percentage on the WR’s. Sure they dropped a lot of passes, but most of these throws are long passes which tend to be more difficult than a slant route. You may have guessed what I think, but effective passing comes from a higher completion percentage through a balance of different throws, from short to medium and to long pass plays. I don’t mind occasionally streching the field with a deep ball, but when that’s your only form of throwing the ball it just doesn’t work. Also, short and intermediate passing would really benefit a struggling O-line when it can’t provide the time for a deep route to develop.
All this just goes to show that you have to use the passing game properly for it to be truly effective. When that happens, then this offense can really start rolling.
I think we will be OK and pass for about the same yards every year.
Vad Lee may be a better passed than we have seen since CPJ arrived, but I hope we do not see him in the lineup this season. If we do, it’s because the offense is not going well with Washington or Days. That will not be good news early in the season.
When you look at our schedule, WCU, MTSU, and Kansas all have defensive weaknesses we should be able to exploit without passing. WCU was 2-9 last year in the Southern Conference. If we have trouble moving ball against their defense, it will be a long season for us. The MTSU offense will be a test for our secondary, but they had a poor defense last year. We moved the ball well against them and scored 42 points. If they have a strength on defense, it’s their pass defense. The Sun Belt is a pass happy conference and they are built to complete in that model. I get sick thinking about the Kansas game last year. We moved the ball well, but made so many mistakes it killed any chance we had to win. But the Jay Hawks did not stop our offense, as we gain over 400 yards.
The point of this is, we should not have to “depend” on passing early in the season. If we can execute our option offense and keep mistakes to a minimum, the schedule favors us being 3-0 when Carolina comes to town in late September. If Vad Lee is the QB at that time we are not going to be 3-0. That said, I think Washington will average about 100 yards per game passing during these games. That should be enough for us to win.
Where do we come from? What are we? Where are we going?
So what about the last 9 to 11 games...
by RamblinWreck7 on Aug 7, 2011 12:38 AM EDT up reply actions
If Tevin is solid after these games, he's the guy.
Of course, injuries and stronger opponents could change the picture. But he has a big advantage right now. And, I doubt that passing is the key to determining the starting QB.
The word from practice is good for Lee, but Tevin has to stumble for Lee to really have a shot as the starter. I think most of us would just as soon see Tevin succeed.
Where do we come from? What are we? Where are we going?
Do you have a breakdown
of GT’s pass attempts? I’m interested to see what percentage of our passes are at the <10 yards, 10-20 yards, and 20+ yards. While I agree that intermediate passing is something we need to improve, slants are going to be more difficult to complete than, say a 10 yard out route or comeback. The defense is going to be loaded in the box and you don’t want to bring a receiver and his corner into that region also. Linebackers are very good a picking those off if they’re poorly timed or if he’s hiding out in the middle.
I don't have a breakdown.
But I know from the 10 to at most 15 passes per game that it’s not very hard to remember the main type of throws that Georgia Tech uses, which is the long pass.
by RamblinWreck7 on Aug 7, 2011 11:06 PM EDT up reply actions
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