What Would it Take to Get us to the BCS game and Fumble Totals
by GTNate on Jun 21, 2011 8:46 PM EDT
Email
PrintPersonally, I think that it would take beating VT, UGA, and FSU, with FSU and UGA in the top 12 and VT in the top 20. What sayest thou(s)? And, since this is a two-part fanpost, after the break you'll find fumble total analysis from CPJ's teams to see if we'll improve, inspired by this comment by lil broey.
So I made this handy dandy spreadsheet to assist in the telling of this story. I include only 02-10 because I couldn't find any data from his days at GASU from 97-01. Now, out of these years, the worst was 02. This was also the year PJ inherited a miserable Navy team, incomparable to any of his others, so I excluded this year from maximum/minimum consideration. Thus, our worst years were as far as fumbles AND fumbles lost was...surprise surprise, last year. however, after such miserable years, PJ usually turns it around. For example in 03, we put 9 less on the ground and gave up 11 less total! This is an encouraging sign, but even more encouraging is that after other egregious years (06 and 08) PJ has reeled it in, giving up 13 and 8 less fumbles (respectively) the following years! This really shows me that PJ's "fall on the ball, play's over, pick up the ball, get a touchdown" drill that he has talked about before really works. We gave up less fumbles than we did the year before 5 out of 8 years, an even further positive for this offense. All in all, it looks like we'll give up significantly less fumbles (5.8 less, on average) next season!
Miscellanea: the data seems almost periodic, where his teams have horrid fumble numbers one year and great ones the next. This may be why our recovery numbers every other season are so good. That is, the numbers are so horrible in a previous season so it's pretty hard to be worse! We give up about 16 fumbles on average per season, which seems high, but this is a secret devil of the system in my opinion. "YOY FL Pavg" and "YOY FL Navg" are the averages of year-over-year turnover differential for positive vales of this number and negative values of this number, respectively.
16 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
For BCS consideration
we would have to spend at least a couple seaons in the Top 10. That means at most, a few 1 or 2 loss seaons. One of the critical failures/concerns with the BCS system is how extremely subjective it is. Outside of an act of God where all other higher ranked teams manage at least 3 losses and GT goes undefeated (even then, I’m not entirely sure we’d get a shot at the “big game” with the subjectivity of the BCS), you absolutely have to get a reputation in the minds of the people who directly influence the rankings with opinions.
My fallback example is the ’09 season when we lost to Miami (week 4) and dropped from #14 to unranked (AP) and UM went up from #20 to #9… all I had heard in that preseason was how “MIAMI IS BACK! ZOMG!!!!!!1111eleventy” Especially on ESPN- they wanted Miami to be “back” so much, they were bleeding swagga from their gums.
I’m open to corrections if I’m not considering something, but doesn’t it seem a little odd that UM jumped 11 spots by defeating a 2-0 team (Miami was 1-0 at the time of playing us), yet we dropped from #14, completely out of the Top 25 poll? Not only that, but UM jumped well ahead of a rank we had never held that season.
THWG!
Good point
I think that I got overzealous. I still think we could do it in one season, but UGA would have to be ranked in the top 4, FSU in the top 8, Miami in the top 10, and we’d probably have to play another SEC OOC game (miss state or something) ranked in the top 15.
Paul Johnson: not giving a crap about what you have to say since 1987.
Most decidedly
if we SOMEhow managed it within a season, we’d have to start said season ranked within the top 10, go undefeated, and win every game by at least a 21 pt. margin with mostly ranked opponents. I say that because, as previously mentioned, the current system has memory- and with that in mind, when was the last time we finished a season in the Top 10?
THWG!
What I find interesting
is that three of CPJ’s worst five seasons in total fumbles have come at Georgia Tech. I could have said three of four, but 2009 tied with 2006. That’s odd, considering that we’re supposed to have better talent than Navy…maybe the Middies are more mentally tough than us, or maybe it’ll just take more time because we’ve been a pretty young team the whole time he’s been here.
That is true
I didn’t notice that. What I find important, though (especially as an indicator of mental toughness, a willingness to “go after the ball at all costs”) is fumbles lost, and if you look at that stat its the same case. I guess we just make all of the football players go through a pleb year and then we’ll have fumble numbers right there on par with Navy!
Paul Johnson: not giving a crap about what you have to say since 1987.
I've always compared our success to Navy
I feel like the option is about as much of a high-discipline offense as you can get. Everything is perfect and it works really well, but even one thing going wrong can start creating big problems. I feel like success with a disciplined system at Navy is much, much easier than success with a disciplined system at Georgia Tech….or most anywhere that isn’t a service academy. My reasoning is just simply that discipline is such a huge part of your life in general at a service academy, and so it’s only natural that that would transfer onto the field. Here, you can’t establish it as easily because it isn’t just built-in to the point that it is at the Naval Academy, or at West Point, or the Air Force, etc.
A-BACKS!
Better to have died a small boy than to drop this football - John HeismanFromTheRumbleSeat
by Winfield Featherston on Jun 23, 2011 9:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Everything in moderation...
This really shows me that PJ’s “fall on the ball, play’s over, pick up the ball, get a touchdown” drill that he has talked about before really works.
For some reason this reminds me of when we escaped by the skin of our teeth against F$U a few years back… They were driving in the closing minutes of the 4th and fumbled into our endzone. Rather than fall on it, I believe it was Cooper Taylor who initially tried to scoop and run. He ended up covering it with some coersion from a teammate And let’s not forget coming across a Nesbitt who will decidedly run you down and strip the ball right back if you try to take off with HIS pigskin, dammit.
In the end, I reckon it depends on what kinda commander you are: conservative says “Fall on it and ensure possession.” Risk-taker says: “Free ball and an open road means take it to the house.” I don’t think there’s much question about the size of CPJ’s cojones at this point. I’d never actually SEEN someone pull what he did against georgie last season by letting them score to regain possession. I’ve wished people had done it several times in the past, but never before seen it ACTUALLY done. I fully support that call and it only reaffirms my faith in Cmdr. Johnson.
THWG!
Let them Score
It happens, but rarely. The Broncos did it (I believe) in their first Super Bowl in the 90s. I’ve seen two teams try to do it, only to have the opposing back go down just shy of the TD (Jets v. Jags in 2009, and I think Stephen Jackson did it once a while back).
The ESPN conspiracy.
If you ain’t Division I-A+, you won’t get the pre-season hype. Without the hype, you are too far down to rise (unless ESPN wants you in a specific Bowl Game) enough to get to the BCSNCG.
Read: ‘Bama, Ohio State (harrumph), ’Da U, USC (harrumph), LSU (OK, basically all of the ESS EEE CEE except MSU and Vandy), Big Red, Sooners, Gators, FSU (OK, I could have just said everybody in Florida except George O’Leary), Texas (harrumph) VT.
ESPN HATES: TCU, Louisville, Pitt, Huskies, Buffs, Bulls, etc. Boise has been the anomalous factor in the Quadratic Equation that is ESPN’s mindset, and if we have another season like 2007, a small part of Connecticut will implode into a black hole. If Notre Dame gets good again, look for ESPN to HAVE to buy NBC.
They really hate TCU. Not enough eyeballs, a GREAT story and a GREAT team, but look how the talking heads talked down TCU’s accomplishment over the past few season (not enough talent, not enough competition, big city/small school).
The Evil Empire is trying to “stage” the season in an NFL-esque way without playoffs. They need to pre-slot teams into all of Bowl games that they now control to max their $$ on the TV investment. The pre-season slotting at THE WORLD WIDE LEADER is $$ size of program (Ohio State) + Recruiting (Florida; the state) + TV Eyes (Alabama, the state) and the whole Eastern Seaboard.
I’d love to see the ratings on the time Fulmer took the Vols into UCLA and got waxed. I’ll bet the East Coast turned it off in droves, and there aren’t enough eyeballs in Tennessee to keep up with the lower general eyeball count for CFB in the Los Angeles basin. That had to be a disaster for ESPN.
I’m with CPJ, win the ACC. That’s what we are here for. The BCSNCG is 40% decided before the season begins, and it is decided in Connecticut.
by DressHerInWhiteAndGold on Jun 24, 2011 5:24 PM EDT reply actions
Amen
This is what I have been saying for years. The hype created by the sports media is incredible but what is more annoying is the number of otherwise intelligent people who think they really know who the best teams are around the country based on the current system.
And while I am ranting, does it bother anybody else to hear year after year that “the ACC will only be considered a great conference if Miami and Florida State return to national prominence again” ? That ought to tell you everything you need to know about the bias promulgated by ESPN.
by Atlanta's original team on Jun 24, 2011 8:03 PM EDT up reply actions
ESPN's value in my mind has been dropping for years...
but when they put out the “Jonathan Dwyer tested positive for drugs” story, I turned them off as far as news and “most” opinions.
To make a story out of a man who has taken an MD prescribed ADD medication for years to help with his condition, and blow it up on a headline PISSED me off to NO END.
That was the straw that broke this camel’s back.
I’ll still watch them for sporting events (although Chris Berman calling Golf is painful beyond words), but Sportscenter and their -wanking-talking heads are off of my radar.
CBS does a better job with CFB, even though they should be called C(SEC)BS.
by DressHerInWhiteAndGold on Jun 26, 2011 8:54 PM EDT up reply actions
An undeated conference champion from an AQ conference will usually get a spot in the big game
Except for Auburn in 2004, has another undeated AQ conference champ been left out? Unless you are #3 (or worse) and everybody above you is undefeated, you’re in.
Recovering fumbles is a random event. Somebody at SI (I can’t remember who) did an extensive, multi-year analysis and concluded that teams could force fumbles, but recovering them was largely dependent upon the random bouncing of an oddly-shaped ball.
And sometimes it pays to pick the ball up and run (see Arkansas v. Ohio State), while other times it pays to fall on the ball. There are probably too many variables (field position, score, time remaining, offense v. defense relative quality, and a host of others) to make a universal decision.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recent FanPosts
SHOP THE FROM THE RUMBLE SEAT STORE
