FanPost

GT-UNC Stats Review

A reasonable title of this game would be Georgia Tech vs the UNC amateurs, UNC was still missing 12 players off of the Agent and Academic scandals that haunted the program last off-season. UNC struggled at the beginning of the year before their defense got all of their players back and became an above average defense. Luckily Georgia Tech played them early in the season and was able to take advantage with a 30-24 win. Inside we are going to look at the stats using Equivalent Points.

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Georgia Tech's expected points scored was 27.38, fairly close to 30 points. One caveat with the run/pass splits are that any sacks or scrambles are counted as runs in the play by play, so the only negative pass plays are interceptions and drops. Also this total value excludes penalty points, which the rest of the numbers do consider. In case anyone forgot from my first post, Equivalent Points assigns a point value to each yard line on the field. Using this information we can track a game play by play to determine the most important plays and assign a value to the amount of points a team would expect to score based on their possessions and yardage gained. On offense this game was a testament to Georgia Tech's quick strike offensive potential and its ability to bleed the clock out once they have a lead. Here is the breakdown for Equivalent Points by quarter. 

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That is rather remarkable, scoring two touchdowns in only 8 plays (1.39 PPP!) in the first quarter sure seemed to set the stage for a comfortable victory by Georgia Tech. Unfortunately our defense could not stop UNC either and we ended up tied at half time. In the 2nd quarter we produced one of those masterful drives that a triple option offense is capable of running, and it completely decimates a defense. In the 2nd quarter Georgia Tech got the ball once at the 10:41 mark. We proceeded to run 21 plays and ended up kicking a field goal as time expired. Our only negative plays were two penalties. Our most explosive play on the drive was a 16 yard reverse by Stephen Hill on 3rd and 7, worth .916 Points Per Play (PPP). That play was the only play on the drive worth more than .464 PPP, which was our average output on the day. This is where everyone gets the "3 yards and a cloud of dust" perception of our offense. It is true that when presented the oppurtunity CPJ's offense will take what it is given and grind it out. However what this does is open up our passing game, and not necessarily to down-field receivers. The following two drives both resulted in touchdowns because of big passes to our A-backs, in each case Roddy Jones. It is a great thing to watch when our offense is capable of churning out both of these types of drives.

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The only negative thing I can say about our offense in this game was the penalties, we lost 1.142 equivalent points off of penalties in a game that we could have easily lost by 1 point. None was bigger than a 4th and 1 false start in the 4th quarter. Up 23-20 at the UNC 15 our offense was prepared to take the game and get a first down. However a false start knocked us back 5 yards and made us settle for a field goal, a loss of .355 EqPoints.

Our most productive player in this game was Josh Nesbitt, with 14.181 EqPoints. EqPoints are certainly susceptible to big plays, as Orwin Smith is 3rd in EqPoints simply because of his lone touchdown run, and Roddy Jones is here mainly because of his 2 passing plays.

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I feel this is how most games will turn out, Nesbitt will continue to grind away and get the majority of the plays and EqPoints, as well as Anthony Allen. But I think I success will depend on how explosive both of these players are, if they can consistently get 6-7 yards a chunk then I think Georgia Tech's offense will be hard to stop.

 

Is there anything else you guys would like to see? Any tips or questions? Please comment and I will try and oblige.

FanPosts do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the FTRS writing staff, and are spotlighted purely to create discussion.

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