Georgia Tech vs. VPISU: Is The Vegas Point Spread Predicting The Drama?

by Winfield Featherston on Nov 8, 2011 7:00 AM EST in Georgia Tech Football

Interesting tidbit of information to mull over as you sip your morning coffee.

In his four seasons at Tech, Paul Johnson is 12-3 in games decided by five points or less. Since 2004 (Navy's first 10-win season since 1905) Johnson's teams are 25-10.

Only one of those three losses came at the hands of Virginia Tech, back in 2008.

In 2008, Virginia Tech won 20-17 with the Hokies picked at -7. 2009 saw the opposite with Georgia Tech winning 28-23 and VPI was still -3.5.

2010 was the exception with the Hokies -12 and we saw the largest margin in the CPJ era between the two teams when the Hokies won 28-21 in Blacksburg.

This year, Vegas is pointing to yet another close game, Hokies -1. What, if anything, does this mean to you? Is Vegas accurately predicting DRAMA?!

#AvengeNesbitt

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Comments

Nothing

Betting lines reflect how people are betting. A close point spread means that just about the same number of people think Tech will win as VPI&SU.

It’s going nothing to do with expert analysis or predicting the outcome of the game. It’s all about getting equal amounts bet on both sides, and they don’t even have to get it right at the start, since the line moves to get them there. When the bets are equal the house wins, regardless of outcome.

by CraigT on Nov 8, 2011 7:41 AM EST reply actions

I agree...

And I’ll take it a step further. It doesn’t necessarily mean that the same number of people are betting for either side, it just means the same amount of money is being bet on either side.

Like @CraigT said, the spread is the House’s way to hedge their bets and guarantee positive cashflow…

"Reach down in there...TURN THAT DAMN THING UP!" - Coach Paul Johnson

by TBuzz on Nov 8, 2011 8:22 AM EST up reply actions

Sort Of Reflects

It means that the betters are predicting drama. Not necessarily Vegas. Vegas only cares about the money.

by Luke Fort on Nov 8, 2011 8:21 AM EST reply actions

On a slightly different note . . .

I predict an exciting game.

by Atlanta's original team on Nov 8, 2011 8:37 AM EST reply actions

An exciting game seems to be a step back from your earlier prediction...

It will be a massacre

"Reach down in there...TURN THAT DAMN THING UP!" - Coach Paul Johnson

by TBuzz on Nov 8, 2011 8:43 AM EST up reply actions

I dont know about you

But the right side of a massacre is pretty exciting to me

Better to have died a small boy than to drop this football - John Heisman FromTheRumbleSeat

Twitter, twitter, twitter

by Winfield Featherston on Nov 8, 2011 9:35 AM EST via mobile up reply actions

That is exactly what I meant

Both teams trading blows in a well played game until right before the end of the first half when Tech blows it open.

by Atlanta's original team on Nov 8, 2011 9:43 AM EST up reply actions

I see more of a closely contested game...

I mean, they have all come down to big plays in the 4th quarter in the CPJ era…

- BayBay’s drop on a deep pass in 2008
- Nesbitt’s 39 yd TD run to ice the 2009 game
- Tevin’s 4th quarter drive and missed TD pass in 2010

"Reach down in there...TURN THAT DAMN THING UP!" - Coach Paul Johnson

by TBuzz on Nov 8, 2011 9:55 AM EST up reply actions

Let's not forget

the only reason they won the game in 2008 was due to a bogus helmet to helmet call that moved them into field goal range in time to kick the winning 3 pointer.

by 071u on Nov 8, 2011 10:03 AM EST up reply actions