Georgia Tech Bowl Projections: Do Non-Orange Bowl Slots Matter In 2011?
by Winfield Featherston on Nov 2, 2011 1:32 PM EDT
in Georgia Tech Football
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Bowl projections have been published this week and after nine game in, we can probably form a rough idea of how the ACC will stack up. Georgia Tech still (kind of) controls its destiny thanks to the convincing win over the Clemson Tigers. A win over Virginia Tech plus a loss from the Virginia Cavaliers will put the Yellow Jackets right back into the driver's seat of the ACC Coastal Division with a chance to play for an ACC title and Orange Bowl berth.
However.....
Nobody thinks Georgia Tech will be able to do that. In fact, Heather Dinich, Brad Edwards/ Mark Schalabach, Scout.com, and even SBN's Math-man Bill Connelly believe the Yellow Jackets will travel to El Paso, Texas for the Hyundai Sun Bowl. The opponent is a toss up, either the Utah Utes or the California Golden Bears.
More discussion and questions after the jump...
The Sun Bowl is slotted for the ACC No. 4. The same four projectors believe Florida State will take the ACC No. 3 slot and play Notre Dame in the Champs Sports Bowl and Virginia Tech will be given the #2 ACC position and play in the Chick-fil-A Bowl. FWIW Connelly does go out and say we'll rematch Clemson in the ACC Championship Game but gives the edge to the Tigers because his number crunches have them with a 56% advantage at the present time.
My questions to you with the knowledge that we still have three big games left that play a significant role in our season success story. If we didn't make it to the Orange Bowl:
1. Does the bowl game matter? Or just the bowl win?
2. Does regular season wins mean more than a bowl win?
3. Is it some special combination that you'll mark as success? If so, what?
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Good questions.
1. The game matters. I do not want us going back to Boise to play on a blue football field, for example. But, wherever we go, I want us to win. Hopefully this will be in the Orange Bowl.
2. It depends. If ever we go 12-0 and lose in the MNC game, then I would say the season mattered more. But losing in the Champs Bowl to Utah would be awful.
3. From here on, with our 7-2 record, I will be kind neutral with 8-4 and a win in a bowl; happy with 9-3 and bowl win (even if the ugags beat us again); happy, but less so with 9-3 and bowl loss; and thrilled with 10-2 no matter what happens in the ACCCG and bowl. I will be unhappy with 7-5 no matter what happens in a bowl game that I might be reluctant to care much about.
My feeling right now is that we will win at home against VPI, win on the road at Duke, lose to UGA and its drugged out RBs, then play for the ACC Championship against Clemson. Too early to predict that game or the bowl.
"Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity." - Seneca
"We have to distrust each other. It is our only defense against betrayal." - Tennessee Williams
CBS and Scout.com saying the same thing
Better to have died a small boy than to drop this football - John Heisman FromTheRumbleSeat
by Winfield Featherston on Nov 2, 2011 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions
The Blek Bowl is geographically picky
The Blek Bowl (I work for a competitor) has a nasty history of only wanting schools from the Carolinas or Virginia. I mean, just how Charlotte can you be?!?!
Long shot, but
if we manage to make it to the Orange bowl, and this time against the big east champion, I see that as very winnable. I don’t want to jinx it and know that we’ll go out of our way to lose it if we can, but I think that we would have a good chance there. Break the bad bowl streak with a BCS victory? Yes please.
Side note: The big east is essentially still completely up for grabs with 4 teams vying for the title, and Pitt is one of them. I would love to see Pitt make it to the Orange bowl for a glimpse of the future with a beat down by Clempsun, VPI, or (fingers crossed) GT.
Oh, and questions:
1. Unless it’s the orange bowl, the game itself doesn’t matter. Just the outcome.
2. If we win out then yes, absolutely. But I am really tired of watching us suck in the postseason.
3.The two big games left in regular season are VPI and u(sic)ga. If we win one of those (that one being VPI) I’ll be neutral. If we win one of those (that one being the north georgia grass growing and cow insemination college) I will be happy. If we win both of them I will be ecstatic.
Go Jackets, go America.
THWG.
Now here's a question...
Given an either-or choice, and assuming we beat VPI and uva loses a game, would you rather beat georgie (meaning bragging rights for COFH), or Duke (meaning a trip to Charlotte)?
we can beat UGA all we want
if we lose to duke EVERYONE can give us shit instead of just UGA fans
Paul Johnson: not giving a crap about what you have to say since 1987.
But
u(sic)ga fans won’t be able to! “Y’all lost to Duke” . . . “and we still beat you! THWG!”
Words cannot describe my dislike for georgie. Before I wen’t to college or had any real rooting interest, I hated georgie. Before I moved to the state of Georgia I thought bulldogs were ugly. I hated all of the inbred douchbags in high school wearing georgie hats and failing tests. I hated all of the yelled “it a gud day to b a gatur hatur!” and all of the flying spittle that came with it. I hated the weekly letters that I received senior year from georgie, begging me to attend their school. And then I came to Tech, and the hate grew deeper. I hate their G. I hate that they aren’t creative enough to think of a fight song, so they just use “Battle Hymn of the Republic” at half speed. I hate “between the hedges”. I hate red and black. I hate how they bark, as if they’ve never learned to speak. I love watching them lose at any sporting event almost as much as I love watching us win.
This list can go on forever, but I’ll just leave it at that.
Go Jackets, go America.
THWG.
by JohnHeisman on Nov 2, 2011 10:47 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
I can one up that
I’ve been a GT fan all my life, though they accepted me, they did not have a program suited for me. Now I’m old and in grad school and know some things about football and I still love them. Rabidly. Obnoxiously. The two groups of Clem fans in front of me got screamed out of their seats Saturday kind of fan.
And my baby sister now attends Ugag because Tech isn’t a education institution and has TURNED MY PARENTS INTO DAWG FANS.
cries
I hope we're an "education institution..."
otherwise most of us wasted five (or six like I will) years of our lives.
JH’s comment about battle hymn brought up something my buddy from the north said freshman year: “Man, for all this ‘southern pride’ bullshit UGA always spits, they aren’t very good at it…Their fight song is the UNION BATTLE RALLY and their band is called the ‘redcoats;’ its like their rooting aginst America and that’s the least southern thing of all!”
Paul Johnson: not giving a crap about what you have to say since 1987.
Unless you count that whole Secession thing…
"Reach down in there...TURN THAT DAMN THING UP!" - Coach Paul Johnson
Damn, replying on here means I have spell everything out?
I meant that Tech is not an institution that offers degrees in education. She wants to teach special ed, so U(sic)GA was a better choice. I guess.
:(
Fan is short for "fanatic" nimrod.
#THWG. Love, North Ave. Trade School
below-BCS, the particular bowl game doesn't matter to me
But I’d prefer the Music City bowl (if it can’t be Orange) because it’s closest to me.
I’d prefer any bowl win over any bowl loss.
Winning out the rest of the regular season is more desirable than losing several more and then winning a bowl game.
On the other hand, GT used to have the best bowl record. It would be nice to get that back…
Yeah, I remember it wasn't that long ago
when we had the best bowl win-loss percentage. Obviously before our current losing streak.
by The Bamboo Shaft on Nov 2, 2011 11:25 PM EDT up reply actions
I mean, if we don't win the ACC outright...
then we’ll get slot 3 or slot 4. The Meritocracy that is the Bowl system will always reward the 2nd best team in the ACC over other less deserving teams that happen to have large degree-factories for schools and huge redneck fanbases (FSU, VT)…
/oh wait
"Reach down in there...TURN THAT DAMN THING UP!" - Coach Paul Johnson
Sour much?
You’re 7-2 (4-2) is so much better than FSU’s 6-3 (4-2).
F the Deacs - Notre Dame, Rutgers and UConn to the ACC
---------------------------------------------------------
MiNDSET? SWAG-ER-ISM!!!
---------------------------------------------------------
Wherever you are, Trick, you are wise, indeed.
Correct, Sir Trick.
You truly are one of God's treasures, Trick
Your*
F the Deacs - Notre Dame, Rutgers and UConn to the ACC
---------------------------------------------------------
MiNDSET? SWAG-ER-ISM!!!
---------------------------------------------------------
Wherever you are, Trick, you are wise, indeed.
Correct, Sir Trick.
You truly are one of God's treasures, Trick
1. No, just the win. I don’t care what happens in the regular season if we win the damn bowl game, but beating UGA and winning the bowl would make me the happiest of happies.
2. If we beat UGA and VPI, I could settle for a bowl loss. That’s pretty much the only scenario though.
3. A “great success” (read in Borat voice) would be to beat UGA and win the bowl.
Paul Johnson: not giving a crap about what you have to say since 1987.
At UGAg...
You take on the bowl before you tackle the in-state rival ;)
THWG
"Reach down in there...TURN THAT DAMN THING UP!" - Coach Paul Johnson
by TBuzz on Nov 2, 2011 7:59 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 3 recs
Oh man,
At trivia tonight our team name was “Bulldogs and Dimebags”. We definitely had the best trivia name.
Go Jackets, go America.
THWG.
by JohnHeisman on Nov 2, 2011 10:51 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
Even Jesus approves of that name
Paul Johnson: not giving a crap about what you have to say since 1987.
thassa rec!
Better to have died a small boy than to drop this football - John Heisman FromTheRumbleSeat
by Winfield Featherston on Nov 3, 2011 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions
1. Unless the bowl game is a bcs bowl, the win is more important. That said, the bowl game you go to is a reflection on your season.
2. Assuming we aren’t in the orange bowl, I would rate beating uga as more important (i suppose some people might rate beating uga even higher), but I’d take a bowl win over most other regular season games.
3. I’d rate success as either (1) win the acc, or (2) win 2 of 3 between vt, uga, and bowl. In either case, we must beat duke.
by Joe Hamilton's Chauffeur on Nov 2, 2011 8:38 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
1. I honestly don’t care which bowl we go to as long as we win. The better we play in the regular season, the better our bowl will be, so I think it’ll be fair either way.
2. A bowl victory always means more than a regular season victory – it is the lasting impression everyone has of your team for the next 8 months and sets the tone for recruiting and the goals of the following year. The only regular season victory that would outweigh a bowl victory is against UGAg.
3. If we beat UGAg and end up 9-4 I’ll be happy with the season. If we lose to UGAg then we’d need to end up 11-3 for me to be similarly happy. 9-4 with a loss to UGAg or 8-5 beating them would leave me feeling neither happy nor disappointed, doing worse would leave me frustrated.
IN ORDER THE CHOICES ARE . . .
1. beat VPI, Duke, Georgia, win the bowl.
2. beat Duke, Georgia, lose to VPI win the bowl
3. beat Georgia, lose to Duke, lose to VPI, win the bowl
4. beat Georgia, lose to Duke, lose to VPI, loose the bowl
5. loose to Georgia, beat VPI, beat Duke, win the bowl
6. loose to Georgia, lose to VPI, beat Duke, win the bowl
7. loose to Georgia, lose to VPI, lose to Duke, win the bowl.
by Atlanta's original team on Nov 3, 2011 12:24 PM EDT reply actions
Thanks for not listing #8…
"Reach down in there...TURN THAT DAMN THING UP!" - Coach Paul Johnson
by TBuzz on Nov 3, 2011 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Great conversation piece.
I’m going to respond with two answers, one is my personal response, the other is how I feel the team should perceive things.
1. Does the bowl game matter? Or just the bowl win?
Team: I think it matters greatly. We all saw what happened a few years ago when the team, as did I and many of us, thought/felt that we would be in a much better bowl than the Emerald Bowl. It was a very uninspiring outcome and the players themselves admitted to being disappointed in the bowl selection.
Me: It matters to an extent. There are four tiers of bowls imo. The MNC, the remaining BCS Bowls, followed closely by the traditional runner-up bowls (Think Gator, Chick-fil-a, etc), and finally everything else. It matters to me only so far that if I feel the team is close to being in one of the middle two and we get something from the bottom, I’ll be disappointed. I don’t think the selection itself is indicative of season success, but there’s no doubt that I would rather see them in a more prominent bowl.
2. Does regular season wins mean more than a bowl win?
Team/Me: I think the answer is/should be the same for both the team and myself, and that is that it really depends on my previous answer. If the team has reasonable success during the regular season and is in a position to play in a prominent bowl, then the bowl win becomes very important because, as others have stated, it’s the culmination of your body of work. It’s the opportunity to show everyone outside of your conference that you can throw down with other successful schools. Losing a game like that can set you back, especially considering we are an ACC team, which gets enough flak on it’s own, and we have our own current horrible record in bowls.
However, if the team maybe goes 7-5 or so and doesn’t really get into anything special, then the outcome doesn’t matter as much. If they lose, then it doesn’t change that they already had plenty of things to work on for next year. If they win, then it doesn’t change the fact that they played poorly throughout the season and they’ll still have those same things to work on.
Me: If this team ends up 8-4, then I will have already considered this year to be a success compared to last year. Winning any bowl game takes on more importance for me becuase I am tired of seeing good (sometimes really good) GT teams go to bowls against inferior competition and lose horribly. Even last year’s team should have won against Air Force. Is that me being elitist or vain or cocky? Maybe, but if you don’t think your team should win most of it’s bowl games, then maybe you need to re-evaluate your rooting interest. (tounge-in-cheek people)
3. Is it some special combination that you’ll mark as success? If so, what?
Team: I’m sure that many would like to say that winning out is the only mark for success, but if I were a coach, losing to Duke would be the biggest no-go. I’d say that beting VPI, Duke, and the bowl game would be the success c-c-c-c-c-c-c-c-COMBO!
Me: Personally, 8-4 and winning the bowl game is a success for this year. That’s how disappointing last year was. Winning two more games shows me the team has improved from last season overall and winning the bowl game at the end shows that the team can finaly finish a season.
There ya go.
From The Rumble Seat -Drinkin' whiskey clear since 2008.
"You could spend the next fifteen seconds of your life watching a man and a tiger scream together, or you could be an idiot."
Fact.
Yeah, the Nut Bowl
on that Slip ‘n Slide field started our downward 6-game bowl losing streak slide (pun somewhat intended). It was a completely inexplicable horrible loss to Utah where our players gave only halfhearted effot. Prior to that we’d blown out Tulsa and Syracuse as I recall.. and lost to Fresno State.. TWICE. WTF?!
by The Bamboo Shaft on Nov 3, 2011 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions
I would prefer
Win all four, especially since I just confirmed my tix, hotel and parking for the ACCCG.
Next would be win the next three, lose the bowl.
After that, I’d rather lose the bowl than lose to Ugag, even though I think that’s probably really selfish since we should reasonably expect to win a bowl game at least every now and again.
If we only get to win one more, I’d rather it be Ugag.
UG(sic)A
As much as I hate to admit anything positive about UG(sic)A, if we play consistently enough to beat the pups the rest of the season and bowls will take care of themselves. Our arch-rival is not a pushover. Which is why the win is means so much. If we are good enough to beat them it probably means we have a 9 win season. Maybe some stats guys can do the math on what the average wins per season was when we beat the dogs. Plus, I guarantee that if we win 3 or 4 in a row against UG(sic)A, they would fire Bear Bryant himself if he were coach.
I have not done the math but I think you are right
First, I can’t ever remember beating Georgia when they were a much better team. I can remember several years in which they “upset” Tech but usually it comes down to who the better team was and records usually prove it. In spite of the hype these are not games in which the rivalry means anyone can win and all games will be close. That just doesn’t happen with this rivalry very much.
For me the magic number of Georgia losses before the coach is in jeopardy would be 5 in a row. 3 or 4 could be a combination of luck, a down year for Georgia and Tech having a phenomenal recruiting class. Five would look like a trend that would scare the crap of UGA fans since it would mean not only that an entire class never saw a victory against Tech but that the “new class” and the “next year” chant did reverse the trend.
by Atlanta's original team on Nov 4, 2011 8:03 AM EDT up reply actions
Every COFH game against U(sic)GA under CPJ has been pretty competitive…and that’s all I ask for.
"Reach down in there...TURN THAT DAMN THING UP!" - Coach Paul Johnson
Yes. For that we can be grateful
I don’t think a CPJ team will ever get blown out by jaw-jah.
by Atlanta's original team on Nov 4, 2011 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Because you REALLY want/care to know my two cents here,
1. Does the bowl game matter? Or just the bowl win?
Both matter. Obviously we want to be in the bigger better bowls. [ “Alliteration Nation” ACHIEVEMENT UNLOCKED ] And I would love to see us actually win one in recent history. Our last bowl win is starting to look a little tiny in the rear-view mirror.
2. Do regular season wins mean more than a bowl win?
Essentially yes, since you ain’t even gettin’ a shot at a bowl win if you don’t get the regular season wins… also, the more regular season wins you get, the better chance of a more notworthy bowl win you get.
3. Is it some special combination that you’ll mark as success? If so, what?
I’m a “10-win season” kinda guy because two digits in the “W” column is just arbitrary enough of a qualifier to make me happy.
THWG!
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