How long does it take to dispatch a Georgia Tech opponent?
by BirdGT on Oct 3, 2011 12:20 PM EDT
in Georgia Tech Football
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Tech has played 4 I-A opponents now: Middle Tennessee, Kansas, UNC, and NC State. Those four teams have averaged 27.4 minutes TOP per game and have scored 0.98 points per minute of possession against the Georgia Tech defense. Based on that information, we can devise a formula based on the game's instantaneous margin and Georgia Tech's average drive length of 206 seconds.
Based on this fairly simple calculation, we can review all four of our I-A opponents and figure out exactly when GT put them away. Against Middle Tennessee, Georgia Tech held a 28 point margin with 10:45 to play in the 2nd quarter (Middle Tennessee theoretically could have only scored 18.34 more points). That's right, GT put Middle Tennessee away after about one quarter of football.
Kansas had more scrap. GT didn't mathematically eliminate the Jayhawks until the 22nd second of the second half when Embry Peeples took a pitch 63 yards to the house. Kansas could've only managed 13.34 points and GT held a 14 point lead after the PAT.
UNC and NC State were real barn burners. GT should've put UNC away at the end of the 3rd quarter when they took a 14 point lead with 1:26 left in the third quarter but UNC outpaced their fellow GT I-A opponents and came back. After we scored our final TD, UNC could've only managed 2.40 points in the final 5 minutes and 20 seconds of the game. It was mathematically too much for the Heels to deal with. Unfortunately for them, they had already pulled their rabbit out of their baby blue hat.
NC State put up the best fight thus far against Tech. They were not mathematically knocked out until 3 minutes and 31 seconds into the fourth quarter. Orwin's two yard counter was just enough to put Tech ahead for good against State.
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Based on that earlier thread...
It seemed like a miracle that we won the damn game…
by TBuzz on Oct 3, 2011 12:25 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
People always think "close" when they see a tight margin in a game
but they don’t factor in GT’s defense, offensive firepower, and the time consuming nature of our drives.
I write stuff From the Rumble Seat.
I was being a tad sarcastic. You can’t blow every team out 66-14 or whatever. The coaches will have takeaways that they can use to drill and motivate from, but an occasional lapse in effort or focus is not all that unexpected from a bunch of 19-22 year olds holding a 42-14 lead on the road in the 4th quarter.
The expectations for me are 8 wins, which to me is realistic based on the inexperience of the team. 9 or more wins, and maybe a potential berth to the ACC Championship…would be a superior level of achievement. But to expect Kansas-like domination as the gold standard is unrealistic.
by TBuzz on Oct 3, 2011 1:40 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
If 8 wins is expected...
then the rest of the season is going to be a real downer because GT would finish the rest of the schedule with a 3-4 record. I really don’t want to finish the the last third of the season with losses to Clemson, Virginia Tech, and Georgia. And I don’t want to lose another bowl game either which is what will happen if the final record has 8 wins.
by Dive Keep and Pitch on Oct 3, 2011 2:17 PM EDT reply actions
To be fair...
8 wins was the preseason expectations for me. Now that I see what this group is capable of, the new expectation might be 9 wins, 10 or more to surpass expectations. It’s going to ask a lot to beat both Clemson and VPI.
Miami scares me from the standpoint that they usually have strong athletic secondary players and strong LB play, which could disrupt our offensive rhythm. Plus they’ve won the last 2 and you don’t know which UM team is going to show up.
So I guess I’m saying is, I’m not going to be shocked if yes…we lose 3 games.
by TBuzz on Oct 3, 2011 2:40 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Lose 3
We could lose 3 and still make ACC Title. That would be a huge achievement considering this squad is 1 year removed from a losing season. CPJ would easily be the winningest GT coach in first 4 years of tenure.
I write stuff From the Rumble Seat.
Losing 3 and making the ACC title game...
would require beating VPI and our other divisional foes.
by TBuzz on Oct 3, 2011 4:46 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
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