SB Nation Atlanta Editor's Pick
A Not So Bold Prediction on Auburn versus Oregon
by Atlanta's original team on Jan 10, 2011 8:53 AM EST
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PrintI hope I am wrong about this. On the morning of the big game I am seeing all of the earmarks of a blow out. The first clue I get is when certain people in the media are straining real hard to sell us this game. In spite of all the ballyhoo, tonight's game may not even be between the two best teams. I know, I know, it is heresy to say so. Auburn has at times perhaps been the best team in the land. At other times it was Oregon. Right now for all we know it may be TCU. But timing is everything and without a playoff system tonight's game is all we've got.
Here is the problem. With a 36 day layoff, or whatever monstrous amount of time it has been, either one or both of these teams is a mere shell of its former self. When Ohio State beat Arkansas they were not playing the same Arkansas that was matching Auburn play for play up until a key injury put the game away. The dropped passes and stupid penalties of a rusty Arkansas team doomed them from the start. Sitting around waiting for a bowl game can hurt the timing of some teams more than others. Oregon's offense is especially susceptible to this. Auburn is more like Ohio State, having a gifted quarterback who can make things happen even on a busted play.
Let me offer this disclaimer one more time. Tonight's game may be like the classic Southern Cal vs. Texas national championship game of a few years ago. If so, I will happily eat my words. Nothing would thrill me more.
But here is what I fear. I fear yet one more year in which we end up not quite sure that the right teams played each other, or at the very least, that they did not play each other at the right time. Answer this question honestly to yourself. How many bowl games this year did you actually consider good games? Most were the kind of games that had they occurred during the regular season you would have turned them off and gone out and walked the dog. Only because someone tells us these are bowl games and therefore they are important do we bother to watch at all.
So when the carnival barker starts hawking a game like it is the super tonic for hair loss I instinctively put my hand in my back pocket to see if my wallet is still there. Somebody is selling us something and, this morning at least, I am not buying.
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Not an Auburn Fan BUT...
I am no Auburn fan because I am a Razorback fan. It is painful to me to root for them in some ways because I am soooo much a Razorback fan. But I can tell you that Auburn was the best team in the nation and the SEC this year. You don’t play the schedule they play and beat the teams they beat and not be. I know I am a proponent of the SEC and its rule as king of the FBS, but the record is clear. I rooted for Auburn because they represented the SEC and reflected well on the teams in that league. I see the teams in the lower part of the top twenty five posted today. Let em come play in the SEC a while, then tell me they are better than the unranked SEC teams. I don’t believe it and although I realize the FBS is promoting these “weaker” conferences for the betterment of college football, I know that right now, Auburn and the SEC do rule!
Auburn did everything it had to do
to prove it was the best. My hat is off to them.
However, THE GAME was absolutely the disappointment I thought it would be. I cannot remember the last time I saw such a sloppy game. I am reminded of the old adage of football coaches that you seem to hear every spring, “Well, the defense is a little ahead of the offense but that is to be expected this time of year.” The BCS championship game had all the earmarks of a spring game -filled with bad passes, unforced errors and stupid penalties and thus the defenses looking better than they really were.
The offensive shortcomings were uncharacteristic of both teams but it was especially telling that Oregon left three touchdowns on the field. When they are in sync they are deadly in the red zone.
by Atlanta's original team on Jan 11, 2011 1:30 PM EST up reply actions
Oregon's shortfall
was their offensive line. They played a finesse game, while Auburn’s defense played a strength game. Strength almost always beats speed. If they were just somewhat effective in blocking Auburn’s defensive line, I truly believe Oregon would have put up more than 30 points in that game. However, relying on speed to get by the defense who are just being chipped by the offensive line doesn’t work.
You were right in that mistakes were made early in the game, but both teams settled down after the first quarter. I was very disappointed that Oregon didn’t score once they got in the tight red zone. They just couldn’t block the Auburn defensive line and were forced to run laterally and try misdirection, which doesn’t work all the time. That’s flag football stuff there.
You are right but
if Oregon doesn’t make uncharacteristic mistakes in the first half they are up by at least two touchdowns. It then becomes a different game for Auburn. I noticed that the Auburn defense was totally gassed early in the game but they were helped psychologically by all of the Oregon mistakes.
by Atlanta's original team on Jan 12, 2011 8:55 AM EST up reply actions
I like to look at the game
as “which team was truly better.” Once the two teams calmed down, the score was still pretty close. I think Auburn’s team was truly better than Oregon’s team. They were more physical than Oregon, and they had similar speed.
However, I agree that Oregon nearly jumped up on them early…which would have contributed to that 30 points I mentioned. Think about it if they didn’t have to throw in the redzone…if they could have just lined up and ran for the last 10-15 yards. It would have eliminated Oregon’s interception down there and would have resulted in points. Then again, that’s not how Oregon plays football…that’s just how I prefer it.
There was also
the Oregon quarterback inexplicably keeping the ball instead of giving it to his running back who would have walked into the end zone. Settling for a field goal instead of a touchdown gave Auburn a breather.
by Atlanta's original team on Jan 12, 2011 5:20 PM EST up reply actions
I respectfully disagree
that the bottom half of the Top 25 don’t belong there in place of the unranked SEC teams. Who would you put in there? Florida got blown out by Florida State, who finished 23rd and beat South Carolina. Those two teams won the SEC East the last two seasons. Georgia lost to UCF, who finished 25th. Vandy lost big to a Wake Forest team that only beat one other FBS football team this season.
Just because their records would not be as high as it is if they played tougher schedules doesn’t mean they are not good teams. These “weaker” conferences of which you speak definitely have teams in them that are better than many an SEC team.
Right again
I have already spoken to the comparative strength issue between the two conferences on another post. The ACC actually had more “good teams” than the SEC. The SEC simply had several great teams.
by Atlanta's original team on Jan 12, 2011 8:57 AM EST up reply actions
I have thought several times about writing a post about the chauvinism of the SEC. When I was a child I wanted the SEC to beat everybody (except Tech). Looking back I realize that I was blinded by some kind of regional pride thing. Without realizing it I was doing what a lot of SEC fans still do to this day -seeing every victory as proof of something that can’t be proven without a playoff and seeing every loss as an aberration for which many excuses and explanations are offered. Whatever the outcome of an SEC game sometimes it is clear to me that for some SEC fans their personal self esteem gets all wrapped up in it. Perhaps that is what we mean by the term “fan.”
Picture this in your mind. When Auburn goes into the formation down near Oregon’s goal to run off more time before kicking the field goal to win it something goes horribly wrong. The ball is fumbled. It bounces around and suddenly a speedy corner back for Oregon picks it up and runs all the way back for a touchdown. Duck fans would feel vindicated, seeing their previous touchdown drive and two point conversion as the real proof of who the superior team was. Auburn fans would be devastated but they would not never concede that the better team had won.
As it is sloppy tackling and mistakes by Oregon on Auburn’s last drive end up being proof that the entire SEC is superior to any team in the universe.
I guess you could say I am an agnostic about the SEC, not a true believer.
by Atlanta's original team on Jan 12, 2011 9:11 AM EST up reply actions
I always enjoy these conversations
I just wish it wasn’t me and you alone all the time. I’d like to hear other people’s opinions too. I guess grad school just gives me more free time than I probably should, and everyone else is working, like I should be doing.
About 20 inches of snow
will also give you time off of work and study. :-)
by Atlanta's original team on Jan 12, 2011 5:22 PM EST up reply actions
Two replies
(1) The goal line fumble didn’t happen.
(2) Even if it had, we would be looking at four SEC national champions in a row and one that was a freak play away from being a national champion.
You might object to #2 as being a “close enough” kind of argument – but I will note that your hypothetical situation did not occur.
And, though it pains me to say so, you should probably give Auburn’s fans some more credit. Most that I have talked to have been very complimentary of Oregon. You didn’t hear the “S-E-C” chant in Arizona. Everybody knows that Oregon could have won that game – but it didn’t. Oregon is certainly good enough, but it looks like Auburn was just a little bit better. A sample size of one ain’t great for drawing large-scale conclusions, but it’s the only sample size we get this year between Auburn and Oregon.
On their resumes, Auburn is clearly superior. Auburn beat a bevy of ranked teams – including several really good ones like Alabama, Arksansas, and LSU. Oregon beat Stanford.
And if we go to a multi-year sample, the SEC’s stastical performance becomes harder to explain. Luck could (and certainly does) account for some of the SEC’s success, but luck must by definition be random. Five championships in a row by four different teams is pretty striking and hard to account for by randomness.
Whoever wins the SEC is almost certain to play for and win the national championship. No other conferene can say that.
by first and thom on Jan 13, 2011 5:27 PM EST up reply actions
I'm glad to hear that Auburn fans were humble
that is a refreshing change from my past experience of them. I agree with all of your points except the one that implies that a multi-year sample proves anything. If that were the case then we would have to say that the Ivy League has the toughest football conference since they account for around 50 national champions.
The SEC has been strong of late. No one can doubt that. As I have said before though I am an agnostic when it comes to the idea that they are considerably stronger than every other conference.
by Atlanta's original team on Jan 13, 2011 9:41 PM EST up reply actions
Well, there may have been a time when the Ivy League was the strongest
But it certainly ain’t now.
by first and thom on Jan 14, 2011 9:23 AM EST up reply actions
Exactly my point
past year achievements prove nothing. Otherwise we would have to say Utah is a better team than Alabama since Alabama has never beaten them.
by Atlanta's original team on Jan 14, 2011 11:00 AM EST up reply actions
We can't just look at the best teams
We have to look at the conference as a whole. The middle and bottom feeder teams in the SEC are comparable to the middle and bottom feeder teams of many other BCS conferences (probably excluding the Big East). It’s hard to argue though, that the top team(s) are among the best in the country, and their talent bases are probably far superior to most other conferences. For the most part, the SEC is like any other conference.
Except as someone, perhaps you, pointed out
the SEC bottom feeders were really wretched this year with Vanderbilt losing by 20 points to Wake Forest etc.
by Atlanta's original team on Jan 14, 2011 3:01 PM EST up reply actions
Too long a layoff
brings a sloppy 1st half. All that build up to the game and the total scoring was less than 45 points.
Cudos to TigerswhosayWarEagle for holding DuckswhodressFunny to 19 points, but the layoff killed the game when both teams looked like early September vs. 1AA teams.
by DressHerInWhiteAndGold on Jan 15, 2011 9:40 AM EST reply actions
Thank you
Thank you. That has been my point all along. If this game had happened during the season and these two teams played like this they both would have dropped in the polls due to “style points.” We will never know who the real best team in college football is as long as we get set up for these mythical championships and then have to watch two teams that haven’t played in over a month blunder and slop their way into a “lucky” national championship.
A few years ago I bought the argument against a playoff system that talked about a “long season and interfering with class time.” I can’t believe I was so naive. The season is still long and some bowls suffer attendance problems because students are back in class. Just playing straight through a playoff would be more efficient and be less disruptive. Theoretically only two teams would be forced to play into early January but at least they would be in sync and used to the schedule. I think the current system makes it even harder for schools to schedule classes, know when to let students go home for holidays and figure out when to practice and take final exams.
by Atlanta's original team on Jan 15, 2011 10:14 AM EST up reply actions
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