Correlating Prep Time to Victory or Defeat
by BirdGT on Aug 25, 2010 8:00 AM EDT
in Georgia Tech Football
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PrintToday, I'd like to present conflicting and supporting evidence that correlates an opponent's prep time to victory or defeat of the Yellow Jackets.
First off, let's look at an opponent's time to prepare for the Yellow Jacket Offense. Considering we only have two years of GT data, we're gonna pull all of the data from 2002-present (Navy and GT games). It is downright foolhardy to believe that two bowl games and 4 regular season games mean jack squat in the grand scheme of things. We're talking long term trends. What we find is that opponents actually perform much better against CPJ when they have more than a week to prepare.
For CPJ, however, it seems that prep time is irrelevant. If he has 7 days or 14 days, he's going to win the game ~61% of the time.
So maybe fans of those 6 aforementioned teams have something to harp on...unless they're Hokie fans. The Hokies get some extra time but so does CPJ and he's shown that with equal prep time, his team typically comes out ahead (73% of the time). In fact, the strongest indicator of a victory in CPJ's coaching history is that he will have the same amount of prep time as his opponent. Length of prep is irrelevant. All that matters is that the playing field is equal.
If I were a betting man, I'd take the Tar Heels in Chapel Hill before I took the Hokies in Blacksburg against CPJ. Any thoughts out there?
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2002
I’d run the data without 2002 in the set. That was clearly an outlier as PJ was taking over a winless Navy team. The 10 losses in that season could skew the results somewhat.
But what happens to everyone else?
Take the universe of games in a given year. When an opponent has more time to prepare, what is the outcome? I imagine the team with more time wins more often.
Statistics aside, those teams we lost to just happened to be really good. Sometimes you lose to really good teams, even if they are absurdly boring to watch (Yeah Iowa, that’s a shot)
Only boring if you hate defense
which means you hate half of football.
/broad generalizing accusation
Perpetually living between the click of a light and the start of a dream.
by hawkeyeguy85 on Aug 25, 2010 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Defensive! Ha I get it!
Perpetually living between the click of a light and the start of a dream.
by hawkeyeguy85 on Aug 25, 2010 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Boring AND Lucky
http://www.spartyandfriends.com/2010/08/25/30-teams-in-30-days-iowa/
Better to have died a small boy than to drop this football - John HeismanFromTheRumbleSeat
by Winfield Featherston on Aug 25, 2010 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Which is more boring...
a 50+ point blowout or a last minute victory on a final drive?
All a perception call, I suppose.
Perpetually living between the click of a light and the start of a dream.
by hawkeyeguy85 on Aug 25, 2010 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions
“Tell me why I should believe in a team that beat Northern Iowa, Arkansas State, Michigan and Michigan State by a combined EIGHT points.”
Last minute drives with crappy teams don’t give a great perception.
They sure don't, but wins do...
especially BCS wins.
That said, what everyone always glosses over is the fact that in 2008 Iowa lost four games. By 12 points. Total. That’s Iowa football. Criticize it if you want but it’s defense first, and it keeps us consistently close to teams that are able to recruit with higher star power.
Anyway, I didn’t mean to start an argument against you guys. In fact, I kinda dig GT…the fans I met at the Orange Bowl were pretty damn friendly. Plus, I hate all things SEC, so we share a disdain for uga.
Perpetually living between the click of a light and the start of a dream.
by hawkeyeguy85 on Aug 25, 2010 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions
don't mind Jacob
He has a huge grudge against corn
Better to have died a small boy than to drop this football - John HeismanFromTheRumbleSeat
by Winfield Featherston on Aug 25, 2010 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd relax a bit
I don’t think you’re making a great case for your team. If Hawk fans can’t ‘believe’ in Iowa, how could Tech fans possibly believe in a team that was manhandled for much of the Orange Bowl? And remember, this was your vaunted offense that was largely dismantled — your much maligned defense was responsible for 7 of your points!
That said, I hope that you guys have a great season — seriously. Hopefully the new defensive coordinator will make a big difference. Remember, it’s the defense that wins championships.
What's your deal?
by PCarroll_u_sm(j)irk on Aug 26, 2010 5:51 AM EDT up reply actions
I’m usually more concerned about us having more time off than the other way around. When we have more than a week off I feel like our game-speed rhythm gets thrown off and we’re not used to running at full-speed in a game. Of course, this year maybe we’ll benefit from more time to prepare given our new defense…
Yarp
my past thinking (pre CPJ days) was the optimal schedule was to have the week off before the annual Athens school for lame football classic each year. now I support playing the dookies each year the week before. Our offense seems to mesh well when the schedule is normal. I believe CPJ even has said that if he were scheduling, he would have all games as noon kickoffs. Bad timing for tailgating – good timing for the players.
by twojackets on Aug 25, 2010 5:23 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
i was actually working on something like this myself
and i found that it wasnt give an opposing defense two weeks to prefer for our offense but in reality it was give opposing offenses more time to get ready for our defense. Our defense let us down more than our offense did in games against teams with 2 plus weeks to prepare
This is my Family Tradition
by The_GT_LineageX11 on Aug 25, 2010 8:33 PM EDT reply actions
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