Can rivals question our offensive line's experience?
by BirdGT on Aug 20, 2010 8:00 AM EDT
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PrintOnly two starters return from the nation’s second ranked rushing attack a season ago, and only redshirt freshmen on the roster to fill in those holes.My response is in the comments but I'll go ahead and throw it up here:
OL concerns may be a bit overstated. Two full time starters in Austin Barrick and Sean Bedford return. Phil Smith started 4 games last year and played in 13 and he’s competing for a starting spot. Nick Claytor played in 12 games last season and Omoregie Uzzi played in 13. Those 5 starters have legitimate experience in Paul Johnson’s offense. Plus, we have Nick McRae and Zach Krish competing for starting roles who saw game action last season as well. The OL should be one of our deepest and most athletic since CPJ’s been at Tech.However, I may have been giving our OL too much credit when you compare the returning experience to previous years. Check out the data after the jump...
When you're trying to objectively evaluate offensive linemen, it's relatively tough. They don't really have statistics besides sacks allowed, pancakes, starts, and games played. Even then sacks allowed and pancakes aren't the greatest stats 'cause there are so many factors and variables in a pass play that could lead to a sack and pancakes aren't really kept by college statistic services.
So I'm only really looking at returning experience. Returning starters are the key. A starter gets a majority of the meaningful reps in a game and is facing the first team defense. From 2006-2010, we've seen a steady drop in returning starters on the offensive line (due to graduation, transfer, or injury).
We only return Austin Barrick, Phil Smith, and Sean Bedford as starters from 2009. That's 28 OL starts divided by 70 total OL starts = 40% of the starts (2 starters in the chart above). The 2010 offensive line features the lowest number of returning starts since I don't know when (internet stats only go so far).
I mentioned this in my comment on Block-C, however. A general "lack of returning starters" is not the entire story of our offensive line. Nick Claytor started 5 games in 2008 and had to go through back surgery in order to get back in to our rotation in 2009. Claytor has played in 23 games (tied for most on our offensive line) and will be the experience equivalent of a returning starter from 2009's squad. Umoregie Uzzi, Nick McRae, and Zach Krish are not exactly fresh pups either. Between the three, they have played in 24 games the past two seasons in mop up roles.
And if we really get into the nitty gritty, we see that ultimately this offensive line is about on par experience-wise with CPJ's two previous lines at Tech. In 2008, Johnson inherited a line with 46 career starts under its belt and only 80 total game appearances (27 starts from Andrew Gardner). Besides Gardner, no one had started a complete season. In 2009, Tech returned only 40 career starts with 70 total game appearances (31 starts from Cord Howard and Joseph Gilbert). 2010 features a line with only 37 career starts yet I am not really that worried. The starts are distributed across 4 different linemen and 3 other linemen have legit experience in the trenches (97 total game appearances).
I think our concerns should be mostly related to whether or not we can compete with a top 5 defensive line in a bowl game rather than whether or not experience will hurt our offense's regular season execution. What do you all think? Here's a refresher on the current depth chart according to Doug.
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Want to get real excited about returning starters?
Do a projection of the 2012 lineup.
Assuming no one's graduating early
and getting denied entry into our grad programs…[sad face].
I write stuff From the Rumble Seat.
A good article from last year to look at in hindsight
http://online.wsj.com/article/NA_WSJ_PUB:SB123984090891223207.html
There may be some correlation between returning starts and wins, but I am quite sure that Michigan and Alabama fans would now stongly disagree with this article after last season. They were spot on regarding the two surprises and three disappointments though. I remember all too well our high 2008 hopes being dashed early and often.
it's tough to judge an OL
on only starts. Guys like Andrew Gardner racked up starts and could make the OL appear veteran even if four starters were green.
I write stuff From the Rumble Seat.
It's not a perfect stat...
…but it is still quite useful. A high number of returning starts tells you (1) the line has experience; (2) the players starting were good enough to start last year; (3) there is likely depth behind the starters; and (4) your returning players were good enough to start young and stayed healthy.
The first conclusion is obvious. The second is more nuanced: starting guys who were on the team last year but did not start means that they were not as good as last year’s starters. They may have improved, but you don’t know. Number 3 is also a little nuanced: a lot of returning starts often means that you are playing upperclassmen on the line and thus have lowerclassmen in reserve. You have to assume that roughly equal number of linemen get recruited every year, but that’s a safe assumption. Finally, number 4 is the kicker. If you have a ton of returning starts, that tells you that your lineman were starting even when they were young. If they were good enough to start when they were still small and new to the system, they should be better now that they are bigger and more experienced. They also avoided injuries that could have cost them tons of playing time.
If you want smart, big, experienced, and solid players on the line, total returning starts is a great place to look. It’s not perfect: if you recruited a bunch of 5-star beasts, you don’t need returning starts. See Alabama. But, again, having the returning starters available matters when you think about the need for depth across the season. If your guys are progresing, they may do just fine even if your returning starts stats are low. But you always like to bring starters back, even if they don’t start.
by first and thom on Aug 20, 2010 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions
The system
matters too. For all of our returning lineman, I think about every second of game time has been in PJ’s offense. The same cannot be said for 2009 or obviously 2008. I think that will factor in considerably. The redshirt freshmen who will play are not new to the system anymore, they have had two years to practice it.
No regrets, that's my motto. That and everybody Wang Chung tonight. - Out Cold
Experience and Depth
Often overlooked was the lack of depth on our OL last year. We started the year with guys out of place and never caught up, The last half of the uga game we literally had zero healthy offensive linemen left.
So … We averaged almost 300 yards on the ground with a patched up line. Ummm, wonder what an experienced and healthy line could accomplish?
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