News Flash NFL GM's: Tech Players are Always Underrated!
To me, the NFL is the best sport on television. I'll admit the gameday atmosphere is lacking compared to CFB but it's still a wonderful sport to watch on tv because of the precision, the speed, and the stars. We're a few days from the NFL Draft and I like random statistics so here are some stats for you inspired by a recent post by Falcoholic brickcheney. Based on position and NFL performance, 10 of the last 17 Tech players were taken too late in the Draft, 2 of them were taken at the exact right time, and only 5 were overrated.
I went through the Gailey Era NFL Drafts and sorted the players picked by position. This gave me a percentile of where the Tech players were selected based on position. So, if there were 4 safeties drafted in the 2010 Draft and Chris in Indy was drafted as the 3rd overall safety, he'd be in the 25th percentile of safeties taken. Then, he went on to be a Pro Bowler while the other guys all got cut, I'd rate him in the 100th percentile based on performance. I left special teamers and rookies out (sorry Durant Brooks). The chart columns are Name, Overall Pick #, Position, Draft Rank at Position, Total Drafted at Position, Draft Percentile, Performance Percentile, and Over/Underrated?.
Calvin Johnson is the best wide receiver in his Draft Class. I don't care what Vikings fans say about Sidney Rice or Giants fans smacking their gums about Steve Smith (the Pro Bowlers from that Draft). Calvin is the face of the Lions franchise and really is the only competent talent in the entire City of Detroit.
Deuce has the unfortunate moniker of most overrated active Tech draftee. He suffers from being amongst a really great group of running backs and Tim Hightower was drafted after him. I feel Hightower has contributed just a bit more for the Cardinals than Choice has for the Cowboys up to this point. The debate would have to be whether or not you think Choice has outperformed Darren McFadden. McFadden is a bust compared to other RB's in his Draft but has he outperformed Choice? I'd say they're on par. After next season, the "overrated" status may change as Deuce becomes a bigger leader in the locker room and on the field.
The biggest mistake made by NFL GM's concerning Tech men was not selecting Gary Guyton at all in the Draft as he's outperformed 24 of the 27 linebackers taken ahead of him in 2008 (including Philip Wheeler). I gave Wesley Woodyard, Jerod Mayo, and Curtis Lofton the nod over Guyton as they all racked up a few more starts and tackles since their rookie seasons. If Guyton had been drafted as the 4th best linebacker, he would've been picked at 45th overall by the Lions instead of Jordon Dizon (a special teams rent-a-bum from Colorado).
What do y'all think? Why are Tech players continually underrated? How do they seem to consistently outperform their Draft position? Was it Chan Gailey?
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Cool exercise
Interesting that all the “overrated” players were on the offensive side of the ball. Since Dorsey and Smith were drafted so low they were probably long shots to make a team anyway, so if they were overrated it wasn’t by much. As for Choice, he was drafted to be the third string running back, so while maybe some backs drafted behind him have outperformed him, he has probably exceeded the Cowboys expectations. I seriously doubt they would call him overrated. Clearly, Hightower was underrated but that fact alone doesn’t make Choice overrated.
Pretty cool though that we really haven’t any bust out of the whole group. The closest we have is probably Wrotto based on your statistics, but he is still in the league and getting playing time.
I would wonder if there isn’t a little selection bias since you included players who weren’t drafted but made teams, but not players who weren’t drafted and never made any teams. You could argue that the latter group were all correctly evaluated.
I will admit there is a lot of bias
I had to determine if players outperformed one another based on sometimes arbitrary criteria. Pro Bowls and stats were first. Still being in the league was second. It’s amazing just how many guys don’t do anything in the Draft.
If the Ramblin' Reck burns the nationwide average of 1.61 gallons/day, it produces 14 kg of CO2 equivalent per day. 14 kg/day is less greenhouse gas emissions than those produced by a single cow or horse. There is a proverbial herd of mascots in I-A football that is more polluting than the Ramblin' Reck...
Choice is only marginally overrated
He’s obviously more talented than Hightower but Hightower has been given more of a chance due to the situation. That’s another issue with some of these guys. There’s so much luck involved. I agree that it is good to see we don’t generally have any busts coming out of GT.
If the Ramblin' Reck burns the nationwide average of 1.61 gallons/day, it produces 14 kg of CO2 equivalent per day. 14 kg/day is less greenhouse gas emissions than those produced by a single cow or horse. There is a proverbial herd of mascots in I-A football that is more polluting than the Ramblin' Reck...
I hate to say it
but I always thought Choice was overrated. I could never understand the hype about him when he was a running back at Tech. To me he is at best a solid utility type runner not a game changer.
by Atlanta's original team on Apr 2, 2010 9:07 AM EDT up reply actions
I'd think 90% of NFL GMs would take Deuce over Tim Hightower if they were both available right now.
Tashard averages almost 2 yards better per carry. Five entire feet!
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by Jason Kirk on Apr 1, 2010 3:49 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I agree
I think after this season, Choice will move past a couple of guys in his class (Hightower and McFadden most notably).
If the Ramblin' Reck burns the nationwide average of 1.61 gallons/day, it produces 14 kg of CO2 equivalent per day. 14 kg/day is less greenhouse gas emissions than those produced by a single cow or horse. There is a proverbial herd of mascots in I-A football that is more polluting than the Ramblin' Reck...
Some fall in love with measurables
Same thing happens in college recruiting. Some kid has a great 40 time or vertical and he skyrockets up the recruiting boards.
GT players typically are not highly rated coming out of HS for this reason. But they usually out perform their Scout or Rivals ranking.
Same thing goes for NFL draft. 40 time is the most overrated thing in football.
Chris Mortensen has said the same thing
He literally laughed out loud at some of the NFL scouts who drool over those types of numbers.
by Winfield Featherston on Apr 1, 2010 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah but...
I think the Titans are glad they picked Chris Johnson because of his incredible 40 time. I think he did all right last year lol. But then you have the Bust Factory in Oakland where all Al Davis does is pick fast players who go on to suck.
No regrets, that's my motto. That and everybody Wang Chung tonight. - Out Cold

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