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Free Throw Conspiracy #2: Hewitt the Puppetmaster

Has Paul Hewitt developed an incredible ability to control his player's fouling tendencies with his mind? Has Paul Hewitt coached his players to react perfectly on whether or not to foul a player shooting or handling based on the opposing player's free throw shooting ability? Are his coaching abilities and/or superpowers limited to the confines of Alexander Memorial Coliseum? Let's look at the numbers to try and solve this mystery presented by loyal FTRS reader White & Goldrick.

First off, if Hewitt is using telepathy to control five players simultaneously for the sole purpose of fouling bad free throw shooters...it's possible that he's very good at using his power. Thirty five different opposing ACC players have shot free throws at AMC this season. They are shooting an abysmal 55.5% at Tech. On the ACC season, those same players are shooting 68.5%. However, we are not distributing fouls resulting in free throws over the players evenly. Forwards and centers are taking the brunt of Tech's hacks. Hewitt's hive mind loves hacking big men who are not faring quite as well (66.6%) as the little guards (71.6%) on the season.

Hewitt's genius is putting added pressure on the big men as they're hacked about two times per game during shooting attempts or during bonus situations. The knowledge that they're going to be beaten up by Hewitt's 5 surrogates has subtracted about fifteen percent of their accuracy on free throws. Guards haven't been able to rescue the big men either. Opposing guards are shooting 57.8% on free throws within the confines of the Thriller Boob. No one is safe from the supposed Hewittinesis.

Winfield suggested yesterday that perhaps Hewitt is coaching his players up to know who is the weakest link on the opposing squads so they know who to send to the foul line and who not to. However, the key flaw in this argument is that good free throw shooters are good shooters. You've got to defend them tight no matter what and that will generate fouls in the open court and during shooting attempts. If we only played the poor free throw shooters physically, then our opponents' star shooters and point guards would rack up 40 points/game on us.

Ultimately, this is where the Puppetmaster Conspiracy has its biggest flaw. Seniors seem to be unaffected by the combined powers of Tech Hoops, Atlanta, and the Yellow Jacket faithful. Eight opposing seniors have shot free throws in AMC. They were the most accurate and the most hacked of all the free throw shooters (Hewitt's genius backfired on us). Here's a table to show what I'm talking about:

Hiewttmind_medium

The table is broken down by age, number of guys that shot free throws, their shooting percentages in Atlanta, their normal ACC shooting percentage, the difference between the two shooting percentages, the number of shooting fouls received (FTO), and the number of shooting fouls per player per game. For example, we're fouling seniors two and a half times per game either during shooting attempts or when their team is in the bonus. The Hive Mind needs to lock it up, in my opinion.

Any thoughts out there? What's the Good Word?

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Sweet! My first FTRS Shout-out.

I still think that we do a good job of fouling the people who will hurt us the least on the line. I bet if you compared the free throw attempts for each class to their minutes played it would show something different. When normalized for playing time we probably don’t foul the good free throw shooting seniors as much as some of the other classes.

I like that the suggestion that the team might being doing something good at the instruction of Paul Hewitt makes people leap to mind control instead of coaching :)

To HELL with georgia!

by White and Goldrick on Feb 26, 2010 2:35 PM EST reply actions  

RE:

All stats from Tech home games.

Freshmen: 1 FT Attempt every 3.88 minutes
Sophomores: 1 FT Attempt every 7.53 minutes
Juniors: 1 FT Attempt every 8.06 minutes
Seniors: 1 FT Attempt every 6.39 minutes

The free throw attempts/min are almost inversely proportional to how accurate the different classes are but still very close. I think it’s very possible we try to avoid sending certain people to the line (e.g. crusty veterans). I also think older players don’t get rattled on the road and that Tech (as evidenced by the free throw data) has a good home court advantage.

I spun around... and there I was, face-to-face with a six-year old kid. Well, I just threw my guns down and walked away. Little bastard shot me in the ass.

by BirdGT on Feb 26, 2010 3:28 PM EST up reply actions  

Thoughts? Many. Good Word? THWG!

I wonder how the numbers would change if we attempted to exclude those player who truly have horrible form shooting FT’s. Take Gani for example. It looks like he is going to fall over with every attempt, so I’m not sure anything is helping or hurting his free throw shooting other than himself. I’m sure if we looked at all the players on each team we could easily find others who fit that mold.

It would be an interesting, not to mention tedious, project.

"Big Ten can have this challenge. Duke loses, we all win..."
-Marcus Ginyard, G - UNC

by Jesse28 on Mar 1, 2010 9:44 AM EST reply actions  

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