ACC Fantasy Football Focus: Scoring Efficiencies
by BirdGT on Dec 3, 2010 10:00 AM EST
in Georgia Tech Football
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On Monday, Dive Keep & Pitch asked for some offensive efficiency numbers so I have obliged him today pulling out some critical numbers regarding scoring efficiency. Accumulating yardage is important but typically scoring has a stronger correlation to victory than yards attained (otherwise Hawai'i and Navy would win the National Championship every year). The first group of information I compiled was the number of points scored per offensive play in ACC play. The Hokies and Seminoles, our 2010 ACCCG reps, lead the conference by far in offensive points per play:
If you wanted to compare the #1 efficiency (VPI) to the #12 efficiency (BC), then you'd see it takes the Eagles about 4.8 more plays to score a point than the Hokies in ACC play. It didn't help the Eagles that they gave up 3 defensive TD's as well (DTD). Georgia Tech's 2009 offense would rank second behind VPI's (0.35 points per play).
Another method for showing offensive efficiency is in points scored per minute. The Hokies and Seminoles lead in this area as well. I was actually surprised to see Clemson as low on the chart as they are. And in contrast to the previous chart, Georgia Tech's 2009 offense would be middle of the pack in this chart (.47 points/minute). 2009's mastery of the game clock is not a friend of this methodology:
The Hokies are scoring a touchdown every 8 minutes of offensive play in 2010. The Jackets in 2010 scored a TD every 13 minutes of offense. The Eagles (last place sad face) scored a TD every 20 minutes of offensive play.
I also wanted to check out teams and their defensive efficiencies. FSU is #1 in points allowed per offensive play. FSU benefited from three defensive touchdowns. VT was still in the top third in efficiency but lost out due to lack of defensive TD's. Georgia Tech was in the bottom third. We were the second worst team as far as allowed rushing touchdowns in conference play. That is depressing. Everyone literally wanted to beat us at our own game.
Despite BC's awful offense, the defense played superb this year. They were the #1 defense concerning points scored per defensive minute of possession. This may be attributable to good defense and offenses realizing they only need 10 points to beat BC.
Any questions or answers out there?
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Great work
You guys are a daily stop.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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Great work!
The offensive efficiency numbers are interesting. GT isn’t as bad as I might have expected. I guess all those bad memories of fumbling in the red zone have clouded my judgement.
Some teams keep the scoring and attempts in line. For example, VT shows 14 pass TD on 203 pass attempts and 18 rush TD on 336 TD. Makes sense. Run more, score more running TD. UNC shows very nice balance, 265v250 and 10v11. Duke has it all backwards: 50% more pass attempts than rushing attempts, yet they scored 50% more rushing TD than passing TD. GT gives the impression that QBs sometimes think they are second comming of Dan Marino or something with the 4.5:1 rush to pass attempts compared to the rush to pass TD ration of 1.7:1. I guess if a GT pass is a trick play, then trick plays are a vital component of GT scoring.
Thinking about the points per minute. Wouldn’t that imply that if VT runs a two minute offense, they should only expect to score 1.46 points? Obviously, a two minute offense is supposed to score more than that. Does anyone know offhand how often a two mintue offense works (meaning scores a field goal or touchdown)?
Paul Johnson lamented after one game earlier this season about spending six minutes on an offensive drive only to settle for a field goal. So points per minute apparently isn’t without its uses.
On defenive efficiency, GT is about where expected. The scary part, however, is to take a look at the TOP and TP. GT is #3 of #4. You can imagine the disaster if the offense wasn’t so good at controlling the clock. Clearly, the #1 play in the defense play book is to not let the other team have the ball. And that’s a good thing because the #2 play in the defense’s play book is the exotic Maginot Line, followed by the always popular Swisscheese defense.
by Dive Keep and Pitch on Dec 3, 2010 11:24 AM EST reply actions
fixed
the tables kept sorting and mixing and matching data so I redid the two defensive tables into one…
I write stuff From the Rumble Seat.
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