Iowa Preview
by BirdGT on Jan 4, 2010 8:00 AM EST
53 comments
We broke down every aspect of the Iowa Hawkeyes in the weeks leading up to this game. We discussed Iowa's offensive philosophy and play calling tendencies. We broke down the offensive play makers on the Hawkeye squad. We compared Georgia Tech and Iowa's strengths and how they stacked up against their respective schedules. We learned that Iowa's defense is really good this year. We matched up Derrick Morgan and Demaryius Thomas against their Hawkeye adversaries.
Winfield left the realm of sports and found some hot Iowa chicks. He also polled several Big 10 and Iowa State bloggers to see what their opinions were of Iowa and its mob-like fan base.
As you can tell, our goal was to supersaturate the FTRS readers with Iowa information. We want you to know every little detail there is to know about Iowa ranging from traditions to skeletons in the closet. Personally, I got Iowa-ed out. I'm ready to watch Tech take on the Hawkeyes and I'm tired of previewing the matchup so here are my quick thoughts and FTRS' predictions.
Commitment to the Run
Iowa has struggled with teams that committed to the run. For all the accolades and awards won by the Iowa defense this season, they've faltered against teams that continued to pound the football. The three worst defensive efforts of the Hawkeyes were against Northwestern, Michigan, and Ohio State. The Hawkeyes gave up ~20 offensive points per game in those three games and had a 4 minute TOP disadvantage per game. The opposing offenses established the run and never stopped running as their OC's called in at least 45 run plays. In fact, those three teams' rush:pass ratio was 140:72 combined. The average yards/carry of the Buckeyes, Wolverines, and Wildcats was just short of 4 yards per carry.
If GT keeps up the season rate of ~4 rushing attempts per pass attempt and maintains the team average 5.32 yards/carry, I don't see GT losing. GT is 19-3 under CPJ when they've attempted at least 45 rushes (1-3 when they've failed to do so). The Hawkeyes will have to severely limit the dive and rocket sweeps and that will probably be the focus of Norm Parker's bowl practices. Another opponent of the Hawkeyes will be their incredibly inefficient offense with a stale QB at the helm.
Rusty Field General
Even the best defensive effort cannot make up for poor decisions by Stanzi. Nesbitt is much less of a liability than Stanzi in that Nesbitt only threw a pick every 38 pass attempts while "Stanzi Balls" flutter towards defenders every 19 pass attempts. Now, when one takes in to account that Stanzi hasn't seen an enemy defensive linemen in 59 days, one can wonder if the Stanzi Ball rate will go up.
War of Philosophies
Iowa hasn't really played a team with the offensive identity of GT and GT hasn't played a team with as good a defensive unit. I feel like watching Iowa's offense will be like watching Chan Gailey the Movie based purely on their inconsistency.
Concerning extra prep time, Ferentz hasn't really shown great aptitude for preparing with a bunch of spare time. At Iowa, he's 15-10 all time coming off more than a week of prep and 4-3 all time in bowl games. CPJ since his time at Navy is a little better at 21-11 with more than a week of prep time and he has a 2-3 record in bowl games. If anyone would like to look up every single schedule of every opponent and figure out Ferentz/Johnson's records against teams with extra time to prepare, be my guest. I'm sure that'd be an interesting statistic as well.
Conclusion
Generally speaking, I could see anything happening in this game. I thought we would beat LSU last year but then it turned out we were screwing around at practice the weeks leading up to the Peach Bowl and I wasted 250 bucks on bowl tickets. This bowl game we're playing a bend-don't-break defense rather than a blitz-happy-speed defense, which kinda plays into our hands. If we can just keep the football in our offense's hands and gain 4-5 yards per carry, then we don't have to worry about our defense getting pounded by giant corn-fed sumbitches.
Predictions
Bird: GT wins 21-20.
Winfield: As usual my prediction spews optimism. We find a way to beat the corn-fed lines of Iowa. The Jackets are too fast for the Hawkeyes and win 38-23.
Dane: Iowa doesn't show up. GT takes 42-0 lead in first quarter and QB kneels rest of the game.
Ted: I don't make GT game predictions until game day, so this is my "unofficial" prediction. I'm gonna say GT wins this one 82-6.
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First Contact
I totally forgot about the first and second time we mentioned Iowa on FTRS. And then on November 11, the Iowans emerged from their Midwestern jungle and commented on an FTRS post. It was almost as if we were destined to meet in a final clash of good versus evil.
You are a sad, strange little man, and you have my pity.
Prediction
We shed some offensive rust after the first quarter, throw it 7 times, and hold off a late rally 38-35.
Maker's Mark--nectar of the gods...
I think if GT wins by anything less than 31 touchdowns, it is a national disgrace
to this offense and you would be wise to dump this Coach Paul Johnson guy. Iowa is a horrible fake of a football team. They beat no team of consequence all year, and even then they had to win in the final seconds all too often. They are slow and mostly lazy. Their coaches are very simpleminded. Also, I think they just started playing football at the Division I level in late September of this year.
My prediction is 222 – 0 in honor of Cumberland.
"I think it's safe to say our concerns are many." -- Kirk Ferentz
we're fucked
’nuff said.
Keeping wildlife, an amphibious rodent, for uh, domestic, you know, within the city - that aint legal either, Dude.
by AcrimoniousAngerererer on Jan 4, 2010 11:37 AM EST up reply actions
Adrian Clayborn is going to molest your QB for the entire 18 minutes your O is on the field.
Nesbitt will need reconstructive surgery on his fruit loop.
If Nesbitt
can survive Mickey Andrew’s defense – the dirtiest defense since punji sticks, I’m not worried about Iowa’s D beating him up.
You are a sad, strange little man, and you have my pity.
Concerning talent/coaching, UNC, VT, and Clemson are pretty good
but as far as scoring defenses go, Iowa is top notch.
You are a sad, strange little man, and you have my pity.
Prediction
GT wins 44-21
"Big Ten can have this challenge. Duke loses, we all win..."
-Marcus Ginyard, G - UNC
That's it?
wow…and I thought you guys were good. VT or Miami would win by at least 31 touchdowns. UNC by 20 or so.
"I think it's safe to say our concerns are many." -- Kirk Ferentz
70-0 at the half
Iowa’s D. is dumbfounded by the option, and Tech scores on the first play of every drive. On the other side of the ball, “Stanzi” throws 6 interceptions in the first half before removing his mask to reveal that the most ingenious sleeper agent in the history of UGA football played the first half for the hawkeyes: http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/player/stats?playerId=145781
Is this delusion more to your liking?
by Joe Hamilton's Chauffeur on Jan 4, 2010 12:18 PM EST up reply actions
70-0 at half suggests to me
that you will have played sloppy ball.
"I think it's safe to say our concerns are many." -- Kirk Ferentz
"Ferentz hasn't really shown great aptitude for preparing with a bunch of spare time."
Couldn’t disagree more, and to look at only wins and losses when discussing preparedness (in a game that takes much more) doesn’t seem right. If by now you haven’t noticed Iowa’s competitiveness in recent bowl game history against solid competition, I’m afraid all your fancy pie graphs may be for naught.
Keeping wildlife, an amphibious rodent, for uh, domestic, you know, within the city - that aint legal either, Dude.
by AcrimoniousAngerererer on Jan 4, 2010 12:08 PM EST reply actions
Yeah
don’t let facts cloud your judgment. Them silly numbers don’t mean nothin’.
You are a sad, strange little man, and you have my pity.
December 9th, 2009
“Stats aren’t meant to be the end all be all. They are meant to help interpret and diagnose problems with subjective information. It’s all about trending. It doesn’t mean it will happen, it just means it’s probably going to happen”
- BirdGT
Make up your mind sir. Iowa freely states and believes that although stats are important if we held them in as high esteem as you seem to we would never play Stanzi. And in turn we would have lost, a lot. Take the Indiana game as an example which can best be summed up by a Lou Holtz quote. “I’ve never had a quarterback throw five interceptions, because after four he would be sitting on the bench.” We won that game and covered the spread.
Seriously, what isn't better with bacon?
by The Bacon Explosion on Jan 4, 2010 1:56 PM EST up reply actions
good catch
I like that quote except I’m guessing I wrote it on the fly as it should be “objective information” not “subjective.” And GT is probably going to beat Iowa.
You are a sad, strange little man, and you have my pity.
I know a few engineers
several of which are graduates of Georgia Tech and they don’t do anything “on the fly.” It’s ok to be caught talking out of your ass. Put the slide ruler down and live a little.
As far as GT probably beating Iowa, that’s why we play the games.
Seriously, what isn't better with bacon?
by The Bacon Explosion on Jan 4, 2010 2:26 PM EST up reply actions
....
I post on a blog. I talk out of my ass every day to generate conversation and discussion on topics that are completely irrelevant to reallife. Better yet I’ve somehow attracted the attention of a billion angry Iowans.
And… guess what? You’re the 100th Iowa fan to insult me in the past 3 weeks! Woohoo! Your prize is a newly minted nickel! Go Jackets!
You are a sad, strange little man, and you have my pity.
Dude, its time to relax
It is all in good fun, for goodness sake. If blogger and posters didn’t make fun of the other team and the other bloggers there would be no reason to read them. How about we agree to this: you make fun of Iowans for our corn, pigs and farms and we will continue to lightheartedly poke fun at your pocket protectors, slide rulers and small population of attractive female engineers.
I promise to buy the first beer if we ever meet. I will also go all the way out on a limb and make it a Sweetwater 460, made in GA I believe, if they are still brewing it.
PS – How do I get my nickel?
Seriously, what isn't better with bacon?
by The Bacon Explosion on Jan 4, 2010 3:11 PM EST up reply actions
But realize this
In all the somewhat insulting, typically humorous posting we do have an ability to discuss major portions of the game, players, strategies and coaches.
Finally, when you are standing in front of the Deadwood (bar) in downtown Iowa City you are four to five hours from any professional sports team so folks are involved with their Hawkeyes. Any site that yields Google results for “Iowa Football” is going to attract rabid Iowa fans like a blue light attracts mosquitoes.
A pretty harmless and friendly lot, we Iowans are. Win or loose we will still pick up the tab on a drink or two after the game.
Seriously, what isn't better with bacon?
by The Bacon Explosion on Jan 4, 2010 3:33 PM EST up reply actions
I think
all tone is lost in posts/comments. I don’t comment if I’m actually upset – I just ignore. I only comment lighthearted yet everything I write is perceived as cold. I don’t really get it. You’ll have to attend a I-AA game at Tech next season to get the nickel.
You are a sad, strange little man, and you have my pity.
I'm not coming to a I-AA game
You guys don’t make them interesting enough. Winning by a blow out, where’s the style in that?
Seriously, what isn't better with bacon?
by The Bacon Explosion on Jan 4, 2010 4:12 PM EST up reply actions
Clearly "It is all in good fun"
means “being a dick” in Iowa.
by CraigT on Jan 4, 2010 9:59 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Wow
So much for the olive branch of peace.
Seriously, what isn't better with bacon?
by The Bacon Explosion on Jan 4, 2010 10:16 PM EST up reply actions
Haven't you ever seen...
…a brother punch another brother in the arm and they both end up laughing about it? It’s a matter of context.
And if you’d stop being a stick in the mud, we’d start being funny to you.
by Eyeheartfreedumb on Jan 5, 2010 1:42 AM EST up reply actions
6-6 Iowa plays 9-3 Texas in the Alamo Bowl (practically a Texas home game)
Iowa finally relinquishes the lead with 2 min left in the fourth quarter and loses by 2 pts.
Was Iowa not prepared?
Iowa is 15-10 under Ferentz with 7+ days of prep
That is 25 data points. You are talking about 1.
You are a sad, strange little man, and you have my pity.
you're failing to grasp our point....
and I’m nit-picking here, but you specifically stated “prepared”.
To me that does not imply victory, it implies competing. If I were to choose a good yardstick for “preparedness”, my vodka of choice would be margin of victory/defeat in addition to wins and losses.
Here’s a trend for ya:
Since our last trip to the orange bowl, Iowa has either won their bowl game or had an opportunity to win the game in the 4th quarter.
Keeping wildlife, an amphibious rodent, for uh, domestic, you know, within the city - that aint legal either, Dude.
by AcrimoniousAngerererer on Jan 4, 2010 2:49 PM EST up reply actions
History
…is (almost) completely irrelevant in college football when you are talking about predictions for one game (one iteration). To me, that’s part of what makes it so thrilling. I wouldn’t put too much emphasis on such “trends” as the one you point out above because it’s not a trend, it’s simply a historical record (i.e. more along the lines of bookkeeping). Ferentz’s and his assistants’ coaching has evolved over time, the players have changed, each team is unique from year to year and, to a point, from game to game. If you were to look at the “data points” of something less dynamic and complex, your statistics would be more convincing. But such numbers are just as meaningless as ESPN’s random historical stats.
Wasn't that defending National Champion...
…Texas? Why, yes. Yes it was.
by Eyeheartfreedumb on Jan 5, 2010 1:44 AM EST up reply actions
Hey! I have the same hat Stanzi is wearing up top. Unlike him, I’ll be wearing mine Tuesday. I imagine he’ll be wearing his helmet, as the Iowa offense is on the field, for somewhere around 38 minutes of game time.
that would be amazing
Since Iowa has had only one game where they were close to 38 minutes TOP all season (Arizona). If anyone has a TOP advantage, it’ll most likely be Tech because our offense is made to eat up clock. Iowa’s offense has been average at best. Turnovers will probably determine the outcome ‘cause I think it’ll be a close, hard-fought game.
You are a sad, strange little man, and you have my pity.
and the AZ win looked a little better before they played NE. It appears the AZ guys couldn’t have possibly cared less about that game. I really have no idea what to expect tomorrow. Iowa wins if they force you all to play at down and distances your team is uncomfortable with. If Bad Stanzi shows up and GT plays keep away, it will be a long uncomfortable night for the good guys. Obviously, I am hoping for the former plus the very favorable TOP that is unlikely. We can chart and claim we are what the trends show – I just don’t get the feeling this game will develop as regular season results indicate.
How's the weather in Fantasyland?
If GT keeps up the season rate of ~4 rushing attempts per pass attempt and maintains the team average 5.32 yards/carry, I don’t see GT losing.
GT vs Miami = 2.4 ypc
Wisconsin vs Miami = 4 ypc
Wisconsin vs Iowa = 2.6 ypc
Extrapolating from the above figures
GT vs Iowa = 1.6 ypc
Iowa math
Iowa-Indiana: +18 points Iowa
Indiana-UVA: -40 points Iowa
GT-UVA: -25 points Iowa
Net: -47 points Iowa
Oh my God. Georgia Tech will beat Iowa by 47 points. Now, that’s some good Fantasyland Math 101.
You are a sad, strange little man, and you have my pity.
If GT wins by anything short of 47 points
GT should get a new coach.
"I think it's safe to say our concerns are many." -- Kirk Ferentz
Check my fanposts
I called out GT October 15th in a Fanpost and i’m loving the fact that my prediction is going to come true. Look up the prophecy of my words. Hawks win this 31-16. Crunch and pie out those numbers dweebs. Go Hawks!
i don't wife em...i one night em
The thing that I hope to see
if GT go 1-6 on 4th down. That will be sweet.
"I think it's safe to say our concerns are many." -- Kirk Ferentz
I did
Did you mean this one? http://www.blackheartgoldpants.com/2009/10/5/1071335/overrated
Where you called out virginia tech?
by Joe Hamilton's Chauffeur on Jan 4, 2010 4:51 PM EST up reply actions
DId anyone mention to him
That Navy beat Wake without even throwing a pass?
by Joe Hamilton's Chauffeur on Jan 5, 2010 9:52 AM EST up reply actions
FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla.
I went nearly two days without seeing a single person wearing Georgia Tech attire, whereas on the other hand, it’s hard to go two seconds without seeing a group of people wearing Iowa stuff.
“Usually, you have both teams that are visible, but this year I’ve only seen one Georgia Tech sticker driving into the hotel,” said David Soderholm, who has worked for the Orange Bowl for the past 38 years. "Even fans you see walking on the street, I haven’t seen any.
Even a trip south to Miami Beach with several of my fellow scribes on Saturday night didn’t produce any Georgia Tech fans. It was almost like searching for Bigfoot or the Loch Ness Monster.
Meanwhile, Iowa fans were everywhere, on the streets, in restaurants and, of course, in the bars helping to support the South Florida economy and celebrating the fact that ….dont think the iowa players dont feed off of this!
I doubt tech fans are staying at the same hotel,
and the fact that they aren’t cruising the gay bars dance clubs in Miami Beach doesn’t mean they aren’t in the area.
"That wasn't a gay joke...
…it was an Australian a Cuban joke."
by Eyeheartfreedumb on Jan 5, 2010 2:01 AM EST up reply actions
sorry but there is going to be 3X the hawk fans there compared to GT. why the iowa team is coveted…THEIR GREAT FANS! spin it like you want…the orange bowl LOVES the hawkeyes because WE SHOW UP in HUGE numbers no matter the date or day and this bowl is no different despite it being on a tuesday when school started monday and most employers had to be back at work after the christmas vacations.
In fact, "amazing" was the word the orange bowl rep used to describe iowa fans.
I don’t know how many Iowa fans will be at Tuesday’s game, but I know it will be many, many thousand more than Georgia Tech fans.
So far, it seems Tech fans could hold their own get-together here in a Miami IHOP, and have room left over for extra pancakes.
Iowa fans, on the other hand, are here in droves! And plenty more were spread elsewhere in Miami Beach, Fort Lauderdale, and around the area.
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