Hewitt Era by the Numbers Part II
by BirdGT on Jan 19, 2010 12:30 PM EST
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All of the numbers above are ACC coaches' NCAA tournament appearances strictly from the Paul Hewitt Era (2001-2009 post seasons). As your eyes track down the list, you kinda notice that the density of guys without ACC jobs increases. I've also found over the past couple days that NC State fans were either insane or incompetent to get rid of Herb and then replace him with Sidney Lowe. It's probably the second biggest blunder in NC State history behind giving the Chest a head coaching job.
Now, this chart is kinda where pro-Hewitt guys can load their cannons and return fire on the anti-Hewitt dudes. It shows what percentage of the time a coach takes his team to the level indicated (e.g. Roy Williams makes the tournament 100% of the time and wins the National Title 1/3 of the time). Hewitt is one of four ACC coaches in the last nine post seasons to take a team to the Final Four. The others are obviously Coaches K, Roy, and Gary. The fact that no one else has even mustered an Elite 8 out of the other 14 eligible coaches is actually quite mind boggling. There was a lot of talent in the ACC throughout the 2000's and no one made a Final Four run outside of Hewitt and the aforementioned three. Interesting. This is why Paul's Final Four run still holds some weight to the somewhat dwindling Paul Hewitt Nation.
The last chart I kinda threw together haphazardly. It's just the number of appearances for teams in the ACC tournament over the Paul Hewitt Era, the number of wins in the ACCT teams have garnered over those 9 tournaments, and the ACCT win percentage over those 9 tournaments. I didn't break it down by coaches 'cause I think the individual school records speak for themselves.
Fire away!
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Appearances
The issue with Hewitt isn’t NCAA performance. It’s regular season performance. What the charts don’t show is the percentage of the time a coach makes the NCAA tournament.
This chart suggest that it is better for a coach to miss the tournament with a mediocre team then make it and lose in the first round. Any discussion about NCAA tournament success must start with what percentage of the time you make the NCAA tournament.
no
64 means you made the tournament and either won or lost. 32 means you won the first round. So if your “64” column percentage is not 100%, then you’re not making the tourney.
For example, Paul’s teams have made the NCAA field 44.4% of the time.
I guess the atmosphere that I've tried to create here is that I'm a friend first and a boss second, and probably an entertainer third.
44.4%
Should a coach with players as good as Hewitt’s had make the tournament less than half the time he’s there? And he’s only done something in the tournament once. Lost in the first round and blown out in the second round the other times.
oops. I get it now.
I am pretty sure Sendek left before they could fire him, but they maybe should have tried harder to keep him. He had an awful record against UNC/Duke if I remember correctly.
Nice try
Under Cremins Tech went to the NCAAs 6 times in his first 9 years and collected Final Four, Elite Eight and Sweet 16 appearances. And that was taking over a program that was nowhere – either on the ACC or national map.
Then compare Cremins’ last 5 years at Tech with Hewitt’s last 5. Cremins comes out ahead again. Cremins’ last 5 years bought him a nudge to retirement, despite how good he was for the program starting. Don’t see why Hewitt’s last 5 years would entitle him to stay.
So we are now comparing Hewitt to Cremins...the guy we ran out of town?
Tech fans bitched about Cremins the last 10 years he was here but now he’s the standard? Hewitt has been hurt by the ‘one and done’s’ just as Cremins was, maybe more so until the new rule preventing HS seniors to go to the NBA. The guy just landed the top big man in the country who is now starting to dominate (17 & 14 against Clemson).
Yet here we are watching probably our best season in 5 years unfold and all I hear is Hewitt Hate. Can we not just enjoy this season and worry about Hewitt in the offseason?
I blog the Carolina Panthers at www.catscratchreader.com
yeah
I think a good run in the tourney this year and a wait and see approach to next season’s (most likely) guard heavy team would be good for the average angry Tech hoops fan.
I guess the atmosphere that I've tried to create here is that I'm a friend first and a boss second, and probably an entertainer third.
I'm saying that
I have hope for this year’s and next year’s teams to be good and it should quell some of the anger and venom that I’ve seen lately.
I guess the atmosphere that I've tried to create here is that I'm a friend first and a boss second, and probably an entertainer third.
Ahhh...okay.
I would agree. I guess I’m incredulous that so many people are still sore about the past couple seasons when we finally have a good one unfolding.
I am worried about losing all three big men this offseason but hey…let’s just enjoy this ride. Maybe Hewitt will bring in another top guy.
I thought last years team suffered from poor, poor defense and the fact we had no true PG. If I see good defense I’m happy because that will keep you in many games. IMO, this team can be better than the ’04 FF team. Just as deep, better front court easily but maybe not as good shooting but that can still improve as Oliver, Rice and Udofia mature.
I blog the Carolina Panthers at www.catscratchreader.com
Last year's defense was rated 32nd according to the defensive efficiency stats on kenpom.com
Last years team was abysmal at turnovers and free throws. Also was a lousy 3 point shooting team.
Exclude the 04 Run
and Hewitt is 1-3 in the NCAA tourney. 3 Appearances and 1 win. The biggest problem with Hewitt, imo, is that he’s had one great year followed and preceded by absolute mediocrity.
Don’t get me wrong, the 04 season was awesome and exciting. Those teams played with passion and were seemingly well coached w/ terrific defense and a tenacious full court game. I have not seen anywhere near that level of tenacity/coaching since then. It’s certainly not because of a lack of talent. Maybe the recent talent can’t be coached.
More importantly, though, I don’t see us as having a chance to get back there under Hewitt. It’s not like we are building a program here. Hewitt is constantly getting top flight talent in. When Cremins drew Price and Salley, those were the two best recruits the program had ever had. Ditto Hammonds, Anderson, Marbury. His problem was the program stagnated after 1996, and the fans felt a change was needed to reach the next level.
Hewitt, with the lone exception of 2004, has only run a stagnant program. Can anyone say the program is gaining momentum? If anything, we’ve LOST momentum as a program between Hewitt’s first 5 years (avg of 2 wins a postseason over 4 postseasons. 3 tourneys – 6 wins, 1 NIT – 2 wins) and his last 4 (1 postseason, no wins).
What I’d like in a coach is someone who builds a program that either (i) gains momentum until its consistently making it to, as well as winning games in, the NCAA tourney (i.e. an annual top 25 team); or (ii) maintains that same kind of momentum. Hewitt certainly isn’t (ii) and I don’t think he is building momentum toward that goal either.
see...
I don’t know if that’s possible anymore. Look at Gary Williams. He’s a damn good coach, has a good ACC record, and has won an NC. Yet he’s only been to the post season 3 times in the last 6 years.
The problem is that the NBA early entry rules, pro ball in Europe, and other outside influences prevent you from really building a sustained program now-a-days. It’s pretty much a roll of the dice unless you’ve got a half-billion dollar budget like UNC, Kansas, or Kentucky. I’d liken to it to comparing GT in football to the Oklahomas, Floridas, or Texases. Teams with little academic standards, massive fan bases, and money pouring out the ears.
I just don’t think firing Hewitt will direct us in the right path. If anything, we’d probably regress for a couple years. I think we could definitely get a top flight, midmajor coach but I don’t know if that’s gonna really improve what we’re doing with the way talent fluctuates. You just have to be patient.
I guess the atmosphere that I've tried to create here is that I'm a friend first and a boss second, and probably an entertainer third.
Watching the games
I think a lot of us in the no camp feel like there is room for improvement when we watch the games. If there is an offensive system it is hard to see. We rarely create easy baskets with designed plays, we struggle on inbounds plays, and we are always poor in turnovers and free throw shooting. I feel like our strategy sometimes is to throw up a shot and hope we get a put back. These are areas where a coach makes a difference. When Hewitt has faced “system” coaches (think Herb Sendek, Tony Bennett) I am usually left with the impression that we had more talent but were outcoached.
And you still think that after the Clemson win?
We had a very nice system set up to break their press that resulted in numerous easy buckets. I just love fans that aren’t happy with a win, its all in how you win. If you don’t win the right way then it doesn’t count.
I blog the Carolina Panthers at www.catscratchreader.com
David Braine
Also, this sounds a lot like our old AD saying 7 wins was all we should expect in football. I think CPJ is well on his way to disproving that.
Right
I expect us to be in the NCAA tournament every year. One miss every five or six years I could live with. I want us to win the first game at least as often as we lose it. I think we should make the Sweet 16 often enough that it’s not a total shock.
I expect us to advance at least one game in the ACC tournament every year, or close to it. I don’t expect us to win the tournament very often, but I want us to be in the discussion most years.
I don’t think these are unrealistic goals. Cremins had us close to this. Just being in the ACC and in Atlanta gets us most of the way there.
Yes!! If you exclude all of his wins then he is just a loser!
Lost momentum? Just beat 3 top 25 teams…God you sound like a UNC fan.
So Hewitt needs to build a program that attracts top players? Darn I wish he could recruit a guy like…hmmm Derrick Favors! Players come and so ‘building a program’ is a never-ending process. Teams go up and down based on RECRUITING! Look at UNC now…not playing to their previous level at 12-6. I’m sure the Chapel Hill crowd is ready to run him out of town.
Feel free to poor mouth this team all season…I’m just going to enjoy the run.
I blog the Carolina Panthers at www.catscratchreader.com
Its funny. The "positive" guy sounds like the one eating the sour grapes
It’s possible to have a discussion about the merits of the coach without poor mouthing the team.
Regular season success will bring about postseason success
The college football season is so fragile. It's like a glass ball being pushed around from stadium to stadium by a rhinoceros.
by Winfield Featherston on Jan 19, 2010 4:00 PM EST reply actions
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