Winfield calls BS - The case for VPI over USC
by EffinDane on Aug 20, 2009 1:30 PM EDT
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Yesterday's post generated a lot of discussion, and Winfield continued it last night. Basically, he thinks that having VPI ranked above USC at this point is just wrong.
I don't want to pretend like I have all the facts or the answers, but I'll tell you how I see it. USC and VT both play in conferences that, at least talent wise, are as good as any in the country. Their conference schedules aren't insanely difficult but definitely have some tough games (USC: Oregon, Cal - VT: Georgia Tech, UNC)and their OOC schedules are at least challenging at some point (USC: Ohio State, VT: Alabama).
Both teams have run into some lineup issues. USC has its starting QB, Aaron Corp, out, and recently losts its monster offensive lineman Kristopher O'Dowd. VPI lost Darren Evans. Ouch.
I want this to be a real discussion, so I won't try to taint it with my opinion too much. I've laid out a few facts, so feel free to add in your own. Besides, I've already put VPI above USC. Tell me why I'm wrong, and why Winfield is right.
Do you think the Hokies deserve to be ranked over the Trojans?
(P.S. Let's not forget that Winfield omitted California from his Top 25 ballot. Ad hominem/red herring I know, but feel free to comment on it as well.)
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Group of facts
USC returning starters:
9 offense (no QB), 3 ON DEFENSE!!!
VT returning starters:
9 on offense (+QB), 7 on defense
Fight, win, drink, get naked
I still think USC has a greater talent pool than VPI does. That being said I also think the coaching is better at VPI than USC … (has any team underachieved with that much talent?) I think USC should be ranked above VPI, but I also don’t think VPI is a top 5 team. I would barely consider them a top 10 team. I even think GT should be ranked higher than VPI.
I'm afraid to put GT any higher
Especially since we start facing what I consider to be Top 25 teams right out of the gate. Clemson is universally underappreciated this pre-season, and I think Miami will surprise people at how well they play in their first four games.
I cannot argue with results, and this Hokie team has them. They win ballgames one way or another, and do it better than just about any other team in the country.
If Miami plays well out of the gate
I will be very surprised. I think they go no better than 1-3 (and probably 0-4).
If GeorgiaTech was in the SEC, you would see us get top-10 love. Unfortunately, we are not Ole Miss and we lost our bowl game. So back to 11-18 rankings we go and I have no problem with that.
by Winfield Featherston on Aug 20, 2009 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Here's some data
VT in 13 games last year, only averaged 22.2 pts/g (89th), a large part of which was provided by a 1,000 yrd rusher they won’t have this year, and only 296.2 yds/g (107th), again largely consisting of Darren Evans contributing to half of that each Saturday for about the last six to seven games. True, their defense only allowed 17.5 pts/g (13th) and 277.1 yds/g (7th), but that’s not what I question, VT has always had a stellar defense and probably will until someone plucks their recruiting coaches from them.
USC in 12 games last year, averaged 37.5 pts/g (14th) and 453.1 yds/g (14th). Over the last decade it hasn’t mattered who they put behind center, they still crank out points and yards and heisman candidates like they are one huge pez dispenser and Palmer/Leinart/Sanchez are those wholesome candies we all loved as kids in the 80’s. The defense allowed 7.8 pts/g (1st) and only 206.1 yds/g (1st). Obviously, they aren’t going to produce at that level again, but exactly how far down is their mean when they have large amounts of players drafted from their squad each year, and they still put up those numbers? In the last two years, just the defense alone has had 13 players get drafted into the NFL, nine of which were in the first round. In back-to-back years!
Think about this:
Of the top 45 on this fall’s two-deep, only four on the entire team — offensive linemen Charles Brown and Nick Howell and safeties Josh Pinkard and Drew McAllister — were rated as three-star recruits; literally everyone else at the top of the rotation at every position, even fullback, was a four or five-star guy.
-Dr. Saturday
That team, much less the defense alone, is not going to regress drastically. Yes, the defense won’t shutout everyone they face, but they also aren’t going to allow Big12 scores on a regular basis either. For me, it really comes down to the offenses of each. Tyrod Taylor is a taller version of Reggie Ball and Williams is an untested RB, after that you are left with what exactly? With USC, you have a situation where the entire second unit on both sides of the ball could break off and field their own team and still be competitive with over half of the current BCS schools.
Heck, throw all this out the window and just ask yourself, if USC and VT played this Saturday, who do you honestly think is going to win that game? Could you honestly say that VT’s defense is good enough to hold USC under 21pts? Not me. Right now, they have to be under USC in the very least, and that’s not even getting into Alabama, OKSU, Penn St. or LSU.
"This is America, if we can’t self-righteously look down on others and blame them for our faults, the commies win."-----Cormican on Bleeding Green Nation w/r/t fans overreacting to the Eagles signing of Michael Vick
too many flaws in your arguments.
Now first, I would pick USC to beat VT on a neutral field tomorrow. But i would not put money on it.
- Darren Evans was a good RB last year, but he was a freshman, and the guys replacing him given the same carriers will get the same yards and TDs. The rest of the offense is light years better than last year. Tyrod Taylor was 19 years old and planning to red shirt last year and had no OL.
- VT has never won with a great offense, stats glorified offense so even if they have a stellar year you won’t see them with at top 25 offense. They win other ways.
- Stop paying attention to recruiting stars. VT hasn’t ever been in the top 10, but only USC, Texas, and VT have won 10 games for 5 straight years. VT fans have a very low subscribership to rivals (make your own conclusions). VT played USC in 2004 (Leinart, Bush, Polamalu, etc.) and a ‘rebuilding’ year for VT and the game was very competitive, 24-13 I believe. Look more at how many players go to the NFL per an earlier post.
- USC’s offensive numbers are put up against Pac-10 defenses. They aren’t that good.
Speaking of flaws...
Like I said at the end, throw out everything I have said and pick who you think wins in a game played this Saturday. Even you state that you would pick VT.
But, back to the data. Darren Evans was much more than just a good RB, he was a great RB. He wasn’t really discovered until about the fifth or sixth game (not exactly sure which, but that’s close enough) and averaged almost 150 yds/g for the rest of the year once he emerged as a bonafide RB. And, by your own accounts, that was with “no OL” plus no passing game to speak of. So defenses knew what was coming and still couldn’t slow him down. I highly doubt any of the backup’s are going to put those numbers up.
And exactly how is the offense lightyears better than last year when your biggest contributor is out for the year, and everything else remains the same? That, sir, is very bad logic. Sure, experience and time in the system will enevitably lead to some form of progression, but most definitely not light years worth.
I stated that it’s clear that VT doesn’t have a top offense, but last year they were more horrible than they have been in years. Sure, they win with Beamer-ball, but that’s only going to get you so far. Eventually not having any kind of offense is going to catch up to you. If VT and USC played, do you honestly believe that the defense is going to keep USC from scoring more than 18 points? That’s asking a lot of that defense.
Did you not read the part where i discussed the large number of players USC has put into the NFL? Obviously you skimmed through my comments and are just cherry picking bits and pieces. Here, let me reiterate, USC has put 13 players into the NFL over the last 2 years from their defense alone. You may not want to look at star rating, but it clearly means something. Also, exactly how many players from that 2004 VT team are on this years team? I’m betting it’s close to zero, making that completely irrelevent.
VT’s defense is putting it’s numbers up against ACC offenses, which by most accounts outside of the ACC, aren’t that good. That’s a weak point/excuse used by those who are covering for their teams weaknesses.
"This is America, if we can’t self-righteously look down on others and blame them for our faults, the commies win."-----Cormican on Bleeding Green Nation w/r/t fans overreacting to the Eagles signing of Michael Vick
I got in late, but...
I keep going back to VPI’s offense. Plain and simple…I just havent seen anything that makes me think that it will be anything better than average. Someone said it best when they said…You aren’t going to win every game 7-6 in the NCAA.
My vote goes to USC based on two things—the raw athleticism that they always have and the fact that they have a great coach that makes sound decisions, especially when it comes to personnel.
Maker's Mark--nectar of the gods...
My thinking is very simple
Over the last 5+ years, USC has proven to be a Top 5 school.
Over the last 5+ years, VT has proven to be a Top 10 school.
USC > VT. Once VT beats Bama, and USC loses a game, then we can talk…
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