Tech-Iowa ATS

by BirdGT on Dec 18, 2009 8:00 AM EST Comment 17 comments

Since 1999, Iowa has gone 77-53-1 against the spread. Paul Johnson's Tech teams have gone 15-7-1 ATS. This season, CPJ's squad was 8-4 ATS with losses to Georgie, Clemson, Miami, and Wake Forest. Ferentz's squad has gone 7-4 with losses to Northwestern, Arkansas State, Minnesota, and Michigan. "Losses" meaning the team didn't cover the spread.

It's an interesting gauge on how good/bad a team is perceived by the general public, media, and Vegas. Vegas wants the ATS record to be around 50% so they'll shoot up some ridiculous spreads just to see what the betters do. And if you look at Iowa's run under Ferentz, you'll see it's around 58.8% winning percentage.

Using the spread as a predictor, we like the fact that Vegas has Tech at -4. It shows that the general perception amongst football talking heads is a GT win. Also, seeing as Paul Johnson's record at GT is 65.2% ATS, we like GT's odds to cover against Iowa. However, the Hawkeyes are 4-0 as underdogs this season. What are your thoughts on the spread? Too low/high or just right?

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What spread were you seeing for Iowa v. Minnesota?

My pick ’em league had Iowa -10, which they covered.

Keeping wildlife, an amphibious rodent, for uh, domestic, you know, within the city - that aint legal either, Dude.

by AcrimoniousAngerererer on Dec 18, 2009 10:02 AM EST reply actions

Iowa -12.5

I used this site. It’s hard to find a site that doesn’t delete their old spreads after a week or so.

This new learning amazes me, Sir Bedevere. Explain again how sheep's bladders may be employed to prevent earthquakes.

by BirdGT on Dec 18, 2009 10:10 AM EST up reply actions

Iowa's spread vs. Minny was 11 at all major sportsbooks, even by Friday

I know because I won a crapload of money on that game.

by YouCanPutYourEddsInIt on Dec 18, 2009 12:11 PM EST up reply actions

WTF?

Are you guys all, like, actuaries or what? Give us some photo-shopped pie charts or something.

Vegas is waiting baby!

by Stay thirsty, my friends. on Dec 18, 2009 10:03 AM EST reply actions

yes

by GTwill on Dec 18, 2009 1:57 PM EST up reply actions

Keeping wildlife, an amphibious rodent, for uh, domestic, you know, within the city - that aint legal either, Dude.

by AcrimoniousAngerererer on Dec 18, 2009 3:13 PM EST up reply actions

Iowa has GT right where they want them

The numbers are fun but the only thing to matter is the letter W. Does GT have a fancy name for their " new " offense?

by ChryslerKinnick on Dec 18, 2009 12:48 PM EST reply actions

Some people call it

the Flexbone, Wreckbone, Steve, Flex spread, Spread option, and more.

Common mistakes are calling it the triple option or wishbone. Triple option is a play that a lot of teams run in different forms/variations. And no one’s really run the wishbone in 20 years.

This new learning amazes me, Sir Bedevere. Explain again how sheep's bladders may be employed to prevent earthquakes.

by BirdGT on Dec 18, 2009 1:04 PM EST up reply actions

Give me some dinner

all of those names make me hunger

by ChryslerKinnick on Dec 18, 2009 3:50 PM EST up reply actions

And Norm Parker is an idiot, right?

Because he, and we, know that it is a very effective triple option circa 1965. But we’re all wrong.

You guys are nuts. A few suggestions:

a) There’s nothing new in football.

b) It’s all about arithmetic, skill and toughness at the point of attack.

c) Paul Johnson is not the only smart guy coaching football.

d) Wake up and realize that it’s hard to defense the triple option in 72 hours, but a different story entirely in 500 hours. I didn’t want to do this, but I have no choice: (unrated) LSU 38, GT 3, in Atlanta, December 31, 2008, as I recall. Iowa hasn’t lost by more than 7 since 2007.

Mr. Boh Knows ...

by Bellanca on Dec 19, 2009 12:58 PM EST up reply actions

Point a)

I think is very telling. I can’t say for sure — and I defer to anyone from the Rumble Seat that wishes to illustrate my ignorance — but the thought occurred to me earlier today that most of the posters here are rather young (still in college/very recent graduates). Now, there is nothing wrong with this, at all, but it tends to color perception. While I can’t hope to compete with Bellanca in the wizened elder statesmen status, even I’m old enough to remember when A LOT of programs ran the option, if not the triple option (Notre Dame under Lou Holtz anyone?). But, if you’re only in your early 20s, it is almost impossible to remember a time when a sizable portion of the college football landscape ran an option attack, thus, when a program does so successfully, there is a natural tendency to see it as unstoppable and completely unique. But Norm Parker has been around long enough to have been coaching, when everyone and their mom ran the option. This isn’t to say that Norm will beat the GT attack, or that GT isn’t capable of putting a hurt on teams, only that the “newness” factor just doesn’t exist for Norm, and therefore our defense. In the end, it will come down to execution: if Iowa is disciplined on D, it will shut the Tech offense down (relatively speaking); if it isn’t, or if Tech adjusts to what we’re doing better than we adjust, then they win. But there’s nothing that Paul Johnson can throw at Norm Parker that Parker hasn’t seen before.

I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.

by HoyaGoon on Dec 20, 2009 3:21 AM EST up reply actions

Common mistake, eh?

Norm’s a moron?

Are you guys all 15 or something?

Mr. Boh Knows ...

by Bellanca on Dec 19, 2009 1:02 PM EST up reply actions

I swear to God

I don’t think they bother to watch the games. I think they wake up at the crack of dawn to analyze the box score though. It’s wierd. Of course it is the triple option, it just isn’t the wishbone. Sheesh.

"I think it's safe to say our concerns are many." -- Kirk Ferentz

by StoopsMyAss on Dec 19, 2009 2:34 PM EST up reply actions

We run the triple option

about 10 times a game just like Florida, West Virginia, etc. but they don’t call their team triple option teams. The triple option is a play just like our toss sweep, midline option, option pass, fullback option, option reverse, end around, etc.. We’ll probably run the midline more than the triple option against Iowa if your linebackers are as good as you say they are.

You are a sad, strange little man, and you have my pity.

by BirdGT on Dec 19, 2009 7:51 PM EST up reply actions

And Oklahoma

Didn’t run the “triple option” 99/100 plays from scrimmage either. The number of plays doesn’t matter so much as the philosophy under-pinning the offense. And GT is a “triple option” offense in that it is a double-read by the QB. This is a credit to (1) your coach and (2) your team in running a very complex offense (much more so than the vaunted “spread option read” offense that Florida runs that is, at is base, ignore-one-half-the-field, single-read play calling). You are undoubtedly correct in noting that in only a dozen or so plays a game, GT runs a play that is a true “triple option”, but the number of reads and operating ethos of the GT offense is that of a triple option O.

I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.

by HoyaGoon on Dec 20, 2009 3:27 AM EST up reply actions