My Georgia Tech Friends let me introduce you to Mr. Ken O’Keefe, our offensive coordinator or as some of call him, “The Coach That Stops Us From Winning More Games.”

Excellent analysis, I would expect nothing less from the engineering juggernaut that is Georgia Tech. The Iowa defense has lived by two mantras all season: 1. Bend but don’t break and 2. Six Seconds of Hell. No one has any clue what KOK tells the offense.

Bird,
Do you have any data on where the defenses are typically set up on the field? Are you going to have a future post breaking down the various kick return and kick coverage units that the teams bring to the table?

Not realizing that it was a lame “in case you didn’t know 3rd grade science” expository on compound eyes instead of something cool, I clicked on the wikipedia link. But I clicked around and found some interesting information.

Did you know that many vespoidae commonly feed ass to mouth?

I think the graphs that show what happens based on the opponent’s starting field position would probably read better if the scoring attempts were at the top of each bar. I think that would more clearly contrast how often the defense yields scoring attempts v. forces the opponent to relinquish the ball. Just a thought.

Oh, I see, now our offense isn’t just bad, but un-American. That’s okay, I think J Lehman will be in attendance, so we’ve got Captain America on our side.

I look forward to more – but I am also eager to see some Smart Football type of matchup breakdowns. You guys gonna have some x’s and o’s, or is that gonna be on BHGP’s side of the coin? Because “Nesbitt big, you can’t stop, look, here’s a chart” doesn’t really mean much because the two styles of play are so different.

Nice breakdown, like all of your work. I’m really looking forward to this game as it will be a classic matchup of two very contrasting styles and philosophies.

You managed to talk about the Hawks in a positive light throughout the whole post. Color me impressed. For real though, you’re statistical analysis is great.

Let’s say, for arguments sake, Iowa’s defense manages to stop the vaunted GT offense and the Hawks happen to move the ball and score on the Yellow Jacket defense.

Not to worry Tech fans.

There is always the infamous Stanzi-ball. Just when it looks like you are down, out of luck, and all momentum has swung in your opponents’ favor. BAM! It’s Stanzi ball. Stanzi-ball is almost guaranteed to result in six points. Want proof? Just ask Arizona, Arkansas State, and Michigan.

My spin on the Iowa D, which I think your charts sustain, is:

Iowa does not gamble and blitz like other teams and will let you prove you can execute 15 consecutive plays without a mistake, penalty, or turnover. IOW, the object is not to suppress average yards per play or drive, it’s to suppress scoring. Iowa does not think college teams can consistently execute 15-play drives. The DC is old enough and missing enough toes etc. not to care about playing for stats.

Second, GT had better watch out inside the redzone. You may be particularly vulnerable. Iowa plays with great confidence and effectiveness when the field contracts — it makes a ‘positional awareness’ defense easier to play. GT seems to have a very modest short and medium passing game, and inside the red zone, the long vertical plays are not available. I think GT will have to bust a couple of scores outside the 40, to win. Unless you’re just flat better, and I don’t think this is the case, I would not expect a lot of success for GT inside the red zone running the ball. Remember, this is not an aggressive, blitzing D that needs to learn positional discipline in 5 days. Iowa plays position, leverage, and tackling defense all year long. The first thing Norm will say is, “Respect this Georgia Tech team.” And the second thing he’ll say is, “This is no big deal if you do your jobs.”

Dwyer’s a load, but so was John Clay. Johnson’s a genius, but so is Rodriquez. We will get penetration with four down linemen, and there will a picket line of five sub-4.7 guys three yards off the ball, and they all wrap when they tackle. Again, I think you’re going to have to win it over the top and beat Greenwood, Spievey and Prater.

Should be a close game, though, even if GT surprises. We’ve lost six games in two years — by a cumulative 17 points.

You guys are fun. Would you join the Big Ten, please, instead of some commuter school like Pitt?

A team is supposed to score if it can execute 15 plays in succession. We concede that point and H/T if you do. If you can execute even one in this game you will be beating the numbers. I think the 4 drive/15 play threshold is meaningful because it proves my point. If you extrapolate, assuming you have 10 possessions (and therefore there are an average 120 opponent possessions in a season), well, GT has an expected long drive/score probability of … .03. Three percent. Now you understand how Iowa plays defense. Ohio State won on a couple of big plays. We gave the game to jNWU, as we usually do, after they crippled our most important offensive player. (This is another effective strategy against a team from a state with 3 mm people and two D-I schools, that starts walk-ons: knock out their best weapon, and the dropoff is huge.)

So Iowa gave up 20 drives, of 10 or greater plays, in 12 games — and 55% of them resulted in TDs. Uh, that’s every other game we give up a long TD drive. This is ominous, because?

Our D-tackles look like linebackers, and run like fullbacks or slots. (That’s because a) one of them was a fullback in high school, and the other one anchored a 4×100 relay in the Kansas state championships, while playing tight end in the fall.) You haven’t played against two tackles like Iowa’s. Suggestion: Penn State game tape. Study Klug in the fourth quarter. If your smallish line can stop them, great! Penn State didn’t have a chance. The last several Iowa DT’s wound up in NFL camps, even the guy who was a high school swimmer. We like our tackles small, fast and active. Also, they run stairs if they don’t tackle like Sam Huff.

Anyway, if you are gashing us sufficient to score more than once on a 10-play drive on the ground, you win, and congratulations. I don’t think you can. I don’t think you win unless you go over the top. And going over the top ceases to be an option inside the 20.

Iowa would beat UNC like it beat South Carolina last year, which is basically like a rented mule, so that, I’m sure, was just a provocative match to a flame war, and no thanks. It would be funny to watch UNC play Michigan State or Wisconsin, let alone Iowa.

Net: our Iowa offense can beat Iowa. Or Nesbitt can throw it and beat Iowa. But Nesbitt won’t throw it and beat Iowa inside the 20. Implied in the rest of your analysis is the idea that southern schools put superior talent on the field (North Carolina????). We’ll just have to see about that.

I admire Johnson very much, but this game, he’s up against a team that had more than 72 hours to prepare for his outlier offense. And I guarantee you that Norm is telling everyone that for every blind side cut at the knees, someone on your side is getting a broken nose. Don’t fuck with Norm. He’s only got 8 toes for a reason.

Which defense most impressed Arizona HC Mike Stoops, this year:

“Iowa defensively, to be able to play their scheme like they did and be as physical and fast as they were … their defense by far was the best and most difficult for us to deal with.”

USC didn’t come up.