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The Tigers' inability to mount a quality drive

I told Winfield yesterday that the key to moving forward is just to start thinking/writing about Clemson and basketball season so that's what we're doing at FTRS. Moving on with our lives.

One thing I've noticed about the Clemson Tigers' offense all season is its inability to mount quality drives. Dabo relies on the big plays, special teams, and defense to move the ball down the field. His offense is relatively inept at stringing together 7-10 successful plays concluding in offensive points or what I'm dubbing a "quality drive". The point of offense is primarily to score but it's also meant to run the clock, keep the opposing offense off the field, control momentum, and essentially win the game. Let's look at all of GT and Clemson's drives and how they ended up:

Clems1_medium


The above data is a collective of both teams' I-A BCS + TCU data so I excluded MTSU and I-AA's from the information. I also excluded half/game ending kneel downs and returns for TD's (this equates to 128 Clemson offensive drives versus only 116 GT offensive drives). The point is to show GT's offense is demonstrably more efficient than Clemson's. GT takes 42.24% of all their drives to the end zone versus Clemson barely takes a quarter of their drives back for touchdowns. As I mentioned in an earlier Q/A about Clemson, Dabo likes to settle. Looking at the chart, we see Dabo settles for field goals 7.46% more of the time than CPJ. Now, let's break it down into more important information concerning momentum:

Clems2_medium


Clemson's favorite type of drive is called the three-'n'-out. The only thing that Clemson's offense compares favorably to GT's is in turnover percentage. They both turn the ball over around nineteen percent of their drives. Now, if you're a Clemson fan, you're probably shouting or maybe even spelling out loud, "Who cares about these fancy numbers? Clemson scores at the same rate as GT! Will Glover!" That's a good point, Clemson fan. Clemson has had 5 returns for touchdowns this season while GT has only had 2. Clemson has had 16 drives of 6 plays or less that covered 40+ yards or what I'd like to call slam dunks. GT has only had 14 similarly conditioned drives.

Now, I wanna revisit my original concept of "quality drives". If we were to take all of Clemson's drives of 7 or more plays, we'd have 39 total drives. Of those 39 drives, Clemson only scored touchdowns 9 times. They got bogged down when they actually had to mount a creative, productive drive. Georgia Tech has had 54 drives of 7 or more plays and has scored touchdowns 28 times. I'm not stating the obvious here, which is to play good, preventative defense and conservative special teams. What we need to do is merely accept the big play as part of Clemson's philosophy. Let 'em pray for kickoff return TD's and punt return TD's. If we can simply limit the normal Clemson offense like the Sakerlina Coots, we win. Special teams and goofy trick plays are Clemson's thing. Let 'em do it. We win on fundamentals and ball control.

Once again, please note I wrote this based on all games' data excluding Citadel, Jacksonville State, and MTSU - games in which outcome was never in jeopardy. Let me know your thoughts

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Comments

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Where the hell

Do you get this data? This is a great post, Bird. 42 percent TDs…good stuff…

Maker's Mark--nectar of the gods...

by chrisinindy on Dec 1, 2009 10:58 AM EST via mobile reply actions  

I had a day off

yesterday due to dental appointment so I put it all together and emailed it to myself for today’s post

This new learning amazes me, Sir Bedevere. Explain again how sheep's bladders may be employed to prevent earthquakes.

by BirdGT on Dec 1, 2009 11:17 AM EST up reply actions  

Interesting Stats

Shows just how big Spiller has been on returns considering Clemson averaging 31 points on the season.

I am pretty sure Johnson is going to kick to him. That would be his style. GT has gotten better as the season has gone on with kicks, but still ranks lower in the ACC in kick coverage.

by accsecblog on Dec 1, 2009 10:59 AM EST reply actions  

Just Stats

As nicely written as these stats are, that’s all they are is just stats. This game in my opinion is going to be more about emotion and fire. Whichever team comes out of those tunnels more fired up will win, no matter what the stats say.(and you guys know Clemson, we know how to feed of emotion and fire-SEE CLEM VS GT 2006)
Rally Death Valley

by thedabokoolaid on Dec 1, 2009 2:48 PM EST reply actions  

that's true

GT hasn’t really blown out CU since 1989 while we’ve been nightmarishly blown out twice since 2003. I kinda feel the CU team is a little more down. I also kinda feel CPJ is a little frustrated with Clemson’s defense and is looking to take the Tigers down after their back to back moral victories over the Jackets.

This new learning amazes me, Sir Bedevere. Explain again how sheep's bladders may be employed to prevent earthquakes.

by BirdGT on Dec 1, 2009 3:05 PM EST up reply actions  

get a sig pic son!

The college football season is so fragile. It's like a glass ball being pushed around from stadium to stadium by a rhinoceros.

by Winfield Featherston on Dec 1, 2009 4:20 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm sorry DKA, but fire rarely wins football games.

There’s something to be said for the fire to come back from deficits as many teams simply give up at that juncture (especially Bowden teams), but there’s no reason to favor Clemson in that regard.

If it comes down to who has the guts to win it, the balance is obviously in GT’s favor, considering they’ve done it twice in a row against Dabo’s teams in the fourth quarter. Once at home, once away; how much do you want to bet they add “once at a neutral site” to that tally.

We don’t have the means to control the clock and Tech does. We do have the means to hit big plays, but so does Tech. In that regard, I also expect them to zone us to death like almost everyone else has tried since BC, severly limiting our big plays. Our defense will play well for stretches, but I find it hard to believe that PJ won’t get the better of this matchup the second time around. Our LBs and DLs have played worse as the season has gone on and both will need to be near flawless to stop the option.

Your opinion of the stats is showing severe ignorance too. Those stats show exactly what each team is at this point at time. Sure, the script could flip tremendously for this game, but that would be an outlier. Both teams are exactly who we knew they were in August.

by OrangeBritches on Dec 2, 2009 2:35 PM EST reply actions  

ignorance?

I don’t think the stats are very ignorant at all. They just quantify the subjective. I’m just trying to show that Clemson is pretty hapless without C.J. Spiller’s awesomeness and Jacoby Ford’s occasional big play.

This new learning amazes me, Sir Bedevere. Explain again how sheep's bladders may be employed to prevent earthquakes.

by BirdGT on Dec 2, 2009 5:24 PM EST up reply actions  

Nice

Way to read, boss. I addressed someone specifically who seriously claimed that “emotion and fire” are more important than what teams actually are (stats). There’s nothing in my post that disagrees with the premise of your article in the slightest.

by OrangeBritches on Dec 3, 2009 1:22 PM EST up reply actions  

read
Your opinion of the stats is showing severe ignorance too. – You

This is what I read, Chief.

This new learning amazes me, Sir Bedevere. Explain again how sheep's bladders may be employed to prevent earthquakes.

by BirdGT on Dec 4, 2009 3:56 PM EST up reply actions  

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