The Passing Offense of a Running Team

by BirdGT on Nov 12, 2009 8:00 AM EST

Parts I and II of this statistical analysis were completely focused on running the football because we run the ball 80% of the time. Finally, we can talk a little about our passing offense thus far in the season. All of the sports analysts would typically dub us a run first team but interestingly enough we like to pass first:

We like to take risks on 1st down as a majority of our passes are on 1st down but if 1st and 2nd down are stuffed or incompletions, we'll take shots downfield as well. Both of these facts are evident in the charts above as we almost exclusively only call pass plays when we've got 10 or more yards to go (67.2% of all attempts). Looking deeper into success rates based on the down yields some more interesting info:

The table breaks down all of the basic stats like attempts, completions, TD's, and picks but I also added another interesting fact. It's the 1st Down/TD rate per attempt or the GREAT SUCCESS rate. To me, it appears we're taking more risks on 1st and 3rd down while simply trying to pick up yardage on 2nd down. 2nd down seems to be our offense's least favorite down.

Concerning the gunman, Josh Nesbitt has had a pretty good year for not throwing too terribly many easy passes. I'm pretty sure he'd have some super inflated stats in an FSU or NCSU type offense with tons of dumps, slants, flares, etc.. Nesbitt is throwing bombs. Period. Average per attempt is just shy of 10 yards. Average per completion is more indicative of what he's being asked to do as it's a whopping 18.6 yards per completion. Big plays.

I think a lot of outsiders wonder why we don't distribute the ball more. I think this is mostly attributed to confidence in receivers. Who are Nesbitt and CPJ confident in to make the play? If it's not a play call to a specific A-back, I'm pretty sure Josh is looking for Bay Bay. How do I know? Here's how:

Demaryius Thomas gets all of the looks. He's also the guy that is making plays for Josh. I wish I could pull up drops but the play-by-play stat keepers only logged 4 drops all season and I know there've been a lot more. But if you wanna see a more visual example of what I'm talking about look at these pie charts:

Thomas gets 56% of the balls but has 72% of the receptions and 71% of our total receiving touchdowns. I know this has a lot to do with play calling. The A Backs are mostly the recipients of wheel routes and deep passes while Bay Bay gets a majority of the underneath routes but still. We need some more pass catchers to step up.

Let me know your thoughts.

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Man, I wish one of these days we’d just throw up a fade to Baybay in the redzone. It was Reggie and Calvin’s bread and butter, and I would love to see Josh do it.

by Yakub2 on Nov 12, 2009 8:49 AM EST reply actions

We have another WR

- Hill. After re-watching many of our games where Hill played, Nesbitt has an awful penchant for tossing it up to Thomas without ever looking Hill’s way. Not that there’s really much wrong there as Thomas will more likely than not come down with the ball, but Hill has the potential to be just as good or better than Thomas and we really should try spreading it around a little more.

"This is America, if we can’t self-righteously look down on others and blame them for our faults, the commies win."-----Cormican on Bleeding Green Nation w/r/t fans overreacting to the Eagles signing of Michael Vick

by Jesse28 on Nov 12, 2009 10:45 AM EST reply actions

Well that didn't work

“#5 – Hill” is what it should have been.

by Jesse28 on Nov 12, 2009 10:46 AM EST up reply actions

So here's a discussion topic then

What is Stephen Hill’s role in the offense? Is CPJ creating some pattern only to break it against UGA or a big name opponent? If he has such a limited role, should he have been redshirted? I say no. He is valuable on special teams and contributes just enough in our offense to be a factor (see the Wake Forest called back TD)

The college football season is so fragile. It's like a glass ball being pushed around from stadium to stadium by a rhinoceros.

by Winfield Featherston on Nov 12, 2009 10:48 AM EST via mobile reply actions

Count me in

Your first question has been my biggest question all year. The numbers clearly show a very small percentage of looks going his way, yet we’ve all seen how explosive he can be on the field. I don’t think I could say with any fortitude that CPJ is intentionally having Nesbitt not look his way only to flip that for one game. I mean, it’s possible, but it doesn’t make sense to me in the passing game to take scheming that far.

The redshirt issue is really what it boils down to from the first question though, and my answer would have to be both. If Hill has no role and isn’t going to be a major part of the offense, then I don’t think having him out there as a decoy to keep Thomas from being doubled is a good use of his talent and he should have been redshirted. Personally, I think the kid is way too talented to have sitting on the sideline for a year and should have already been looked at way more than the 13 listed. Heck, if not for a holding penalty, he would have two end-arounds for two TD’s. So no, he shouldn’t be redshirted and I hope he gets more involved in the games from here out.

Granted, this is all accepting the fact that he is a true freshman and has to learn the system, etc, etc.

by Jesse28 on Nov 12, 2009 3:32 PM EST up reply actions