Who is worse? Big 12 North or ACC Atlantic
by BirdGT on Oct 27, 2009 8:30 AM EDT
19 comments
Let's look at the two divisions even more. Between the two, they've played 44 out of conference teams. Eleven are I-AA's so excluding them the ACC Atlantic and Big 12 North have a 17-16 out of conference record. Now, let's pull out the non-BCS teams and we're talking about an amazing 4-10 record against BCS opponents, which includes wins over Duke, Illinois, Stanford, and the aforementioned Pitt.
What got me started on this rant was a chat message by Jeff (formerly of Ramblin' Racket). The message said something to the effect of, "Kansas State could win the Big 12 North and not be bowl elligible." This concept peaked my interest and I wanted to create this scenario.
Basically, he's correct. Kansas State could be a Co-Champ of the North but they would be shutout by the Big 12 Tiebreaker Rules. Here is what I think will be required for there to be a bowl ineligible Big 12 North Co-Champion:
1. Texas, TTU, OU, and OKSU win out their remaining Big 12 North Games.
2. Kansas State loses out.
3. Baylor or TAMU drop 1 game combined to either Mizzou/Nebraska or Iowa St./Colorado.
4. All Big 12 North teams finish with 3-5 Conference Records.
And there you have it a 5-7 Kansas State taking home a piece of the Big 12 North Championship Pizza. It looks like a huge statistical long shot but it's also very possible with the consistency seen from the Big 12 North this season. A 6-way tie would also draw a lot of negative publicity away from the ACC.
Edit: A KSU fan pointed out that the two I-AA teams on KSU's schedule really hinder the Wildcats' shot at bowl eligibility. A 6-6 Wildcats squad would still not be allowed in a bowl game. There are a lot more scenarios now, after further review, than I initially thought.
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Not all I-AA teams are created equal
The two teams that they lost to are both in the top 5 in I-AA. An upset over Michigan was huge but you couldn’t say that App State was a bad team. Most I-A teams refuse to schedule App State and have refused for quite a while now for fear of a similar fate. 65 teams in I-A are currently ranked below both William & Mary and Richmond in the Sagarin Ratings. That’s over half of I-A that would be more likely than not to lose to those teams. To put it in perspective, Eastern Michigan (I-A) is ranked 181, while Richmond (I-AA, beat Duke) is currently ranked 49. That ranking puts Richmond above Wake Forest (65), Virginia (56), UNC (62), Duke (69), Kansas State (62), Iowa State (55), Kansas (50), Colorado (88), Maryland (115), NC State (89), Missouri (60)… just to name a few. William & Mary is at 58.
This article is pretty much the kiss of death for GT
Wake over Georgia Tech? Yep. You guys spoke too soon. :p
if the SEC
is allowed to ignore Vanderbilt, MSU, Ole Miss, and Kentucky’s terrible football programs, GT can ignore Duke/UVA
I'm about to write you a reality check. Or would you prefer the cold, hard cash of truth?
Then why can't the Atlantic ignore Maryland and NCSU?
The Atlantic Division winner is likely going to be 6-2 with another 6-2 team or 5-3 team waiting in the wings. Outside of the top 3, the bottom falls out just as quickly in the Coastal Division (UNC, Duke, UVA) as it does in the Atlantic (UMD, NCSU, Wake). FSU is going to win some games this year.
FWIW...
Two of Kansas State’s wins were against 1-AA teams…of which only one counts toward bowl eligibility. Kansas State would still not be bowl eligible with a 6-6 record.
Hail to the Purple, Hail to the White
Wildcat in spirit, Wildcat in fight
Hail Alma Mater from sea to sea
Onward forever, Hail Victory!
6-6 KSU Would not be bowl eligible
MadCat is correct here – KSU at 6-6 with wins over 2 FCS teams would not be eligible for post season play … but they would almost certainly win the Big XII North.
In fact, that might be the most likely scenario now – KSU gets Missouri and Kansas at home. If they win both of those games, they likely win the north at 6-6.
good catch MadCat
I didn’t look at KSU’s non-con very closely. I still think a 6-way tie between the entire North would be pretty interesting for the media.
I'm about to write you a reality check. Or would you prefer the cold, hard cash of truth?
ACC Atlantic is slightly worse.
I don’t know both are so terrible.
http://cfb-hashmarks.blogspot.com/
Coastal
Please show me a team in the Coastal that has a win over a ranked non-conference team. Oklahoma? Please.
VT’s win over Nebraska doesn’t look all that impressive anymore. A last second home win over a team that lost at home to Iowa State? Yeah, that’s real impressive. They were not even in the same league as Alabama and needed special teams and insanely good field position to even make it look close.
Georgia Tech will not face a ranked non-conference ranked opponent either since Georgia is falling off the map.
Not impressed with Miami’s win over Oklahoma. BYU did it too, and they’ve been pants-ed at home twice by one team with a pulse (TCU) and another team without much of one (FSU). Other than that, you have Miami’s win over GT (which I think GT would win 3 out of 5 at least if they played that often) and their win over FSU.
Yes, we get it. The Atlantic isn’t so hot. The Coastal is a bit of a paper tiger in its own right though.
by OrangeBritches on Oct 27, 2009 10:51 AM EDT reply actions
OOC records comparison
OOC Total:
Coastal…13-6
Atlantic…11-9
NonBCS Total:
Atlantic…9-3
Coastal…9-4
BCS Total:
Coastal…4-2
Atlantic…2-6
BCS Ranked Total:
Atlantic…1-2
Coastal…0-2
I'm about to write you a reality check. Or would you prefer the cold, hard cash of truth?
Average Score between Atlantic-Coastal Matchups
Coastal Team 35, Atlantic Team 27. When this number becomes more even, the perception will change.
I'm about to write you a reality check. Or would you prefer the cold, hard cash of truth?
the perception for '09, I mean.
nm
I'm about to write you a reality check. Or would you prefer the cold, hard cash of truth?
Got some bad numbers
Your BCS totals are wrong. 5-2 and 1-6. Not sure who you accidently introduced into the BCS there and who you left out in the other one. :-p
Atlantic Losses: Notre Dame, Baylor, USF, Cal, Rutgers, South Carolina
Coastal Losses: Bama, Kansas
Atlantic Wins: Pitt
Coastal Wins: Mississippi State, Nebraska, Indiana, Oklahoma, UConn
As I’ve said, those Atlantic losses don’t look very good, but the Coastal wins aren’t exactly something to shout about either. Those five Coastal wins are a combined 19-18 overall. The six Atlantic losses are 29-14 overall.
The rest of your numbers don’t particularly look statistically significant to me. They’re all with about two games of each other, which you can probably attribute to normal statistical variance.
by OrangeBritches on Oct 27, 2009 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions
What I'm trying to say
Basically, what I’m trying to say is that most of the difference is due to conference play so far, which isn’t particularly disputable. Let’s see how it plays out over the next few weeks.
by OrangeBritches on Oct 27, 2009 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Decided to pull out the wins and losses of the ACC from those last two numbers
Coastal Opponents: 17-13
Atlantic Opponents: 23-13
by OrangeBritches on Oct 27, 2009 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Wake beat Stanford making Atlantic 2-6.
so we’re both wrong.
I'm about to write you a reality check. Or would you prefer the cold, hard cash of truth?
And even then...
all that matters is who won on the field and right now the Coastal is dominating the Atlantic at 7-2. The only Atlantic wins were an 18 point rally by FSU on last Thursday and an OT thriller by Clemson. Two Atlantic wins by a combined 6 points versus seven Coastal wins by a combined 82 points (11 PPG).
And who knows, next year could be back to same old. ’Cause this is the first year since, I think ’05 that the Coastal has had a winning record against the Atlantic.
I'm about to write you a reality check. Or would you prefer the cold, hard cash of truth?
Really?
You’re going to use points to make that argument? A number significantly skewed by one game (VT/BC)? OK.
The current top three Atlantic teams have only played three games against the Coastal. They’re 1-2 (W Miami, L GT and VT).
GT has beaten their Atlantic opponents by a combined eight points.
Miami beat FSU by four and lost to Clemson by three.
VT battered BC. I can give you that. They still have two Atlantic matchups left.
I just don’t buy the argument that the Coastal is significantly better. Better? Certainly. Significantly so? We’ll see, but that’s not the case so far. Most of these games could have gone either way.
by OrangeBritches on Oct 27, 2009 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions
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