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The Chaos that May Be the Coastal Division Race

Let's talk about the ACC Coastal Division. The Coastal has won the last two ACC titles (should've won the last 4 if not for terrible offensive coordinators). The Coastal Division is currently 5-0 against the Atlantic and has three teams ranked in the top 25. There's a joke called "parity" in the Atlantic. The Coastal is all that keeps the ACC's credibility afloat.

Since the 2005 division system, three teams have dominated the Coastal: VT, GT, and Miami. From 2005-2008, the three teams have combined for 60 wins versus the bottom three only combining for 30.

I broke down every teams ACC wins/losses per week since 2005. Here's a table that shows the ACC Coastal Race since 2005:

Acccoastal_medium


There have been 54 weeks of games played since 2005. If we were to break it down by who has led or was tied for the Coastal lead via ACC winning percentage, it'd go like this: VT (33 weeks), GT (20 weeks), Miami (19 weeks), UVA (10 weeks), Duke (5 weeks), and UNC (4 weeks). Duke and UNC always manage to steal a week or two because everyone starts the season tied at 0.00%. UVA had a good run in 2007, which accounts for their 10 weeks of leading the ACC. And of course, VT has dominated the division.

Hence, the importance of this week's homecoming matchup. It's time for a changing of the guard. People are tired of Beamer Ball reppin' the ACC on the national stage. No one wants to see A+ special teams, A- defense, and B- offense. Everyone wants to watch A+ offense while the rest of the team chills on the sideline. That's my opinion and I'm sticking to it.

Here's a question telegraphed in by one of our most hardcore fans:

Dear Bird Flu [stop], What happens if GT beats VT [stop] and GT, Miami, and VT all win out with one ACC loss? [stop] Who wins the Coastal? [stop]
Hugs and Kisses,
Jerry J. [stop]

Good question Jerry. Let's look at the tie breaker policy on theACC.com. There are eight rules for a tie in the ACC title hunt. Here they are:

1. Combined head-to-head record among the tied teams.
2. Records of the tied teams within the division.
3. Head-to-head competition versus the team within the division with the best overall (divisional or conference) record, and proceeding through the division. Multiple ties within the division will be broken first to last.
4. Overall record for non-divisional teams.
5. Combined record versus all common non-divisional teams.
6. Record versus common non-divisional with the best overall Conference (divisional and non-divisional record) and proceeding through the other common non-divisional teams based on their order of finish within the division.
7. The tied team with the highest ranking in the Bowl Championship Series Standings following the conclusion of regular season games shall be the divisional representative in the ACC Championship Game, unless the second of the tied teams is ranked within five-or-fewer places of the highest ranked tied team. In this case, the head-to-head results of the top two ranked tied teams shall determine the representative in the ACC Championship Game.
8. The representative shall be chosen by a draw.

The tie breaker rules go in order of fairness. #1 is simple. Who won the games played amongst the tied teams? In this case, it'd still be a tie. #2 would also be a tie because everyone would only have 1 loss. #3 would be a tie as well because everyone played and beat/lost to the team with the best overall record in the division. #4, #5, & #6 are still a tie because the Atlantic is terrible and we're all gonna win our Atlantic games. #7 is where we should fret because in this case a win over VT would drop VT below us in the rankings but Miami would still be above us. Then, if we're similarly ranked, Miami would still beat us out because they beat us head-head.

Everything could be a huge cluster if all three teams win out. However, we'd prefer everyone win out over the possibility of us beating VT and them falling into a state of disrepair and losing additional games. A tie breaker with Miami = Miami instant win. So VT is only allowed to suck on October 17th and must play ridiculous football from then on. I'll leave you with one last chart. A graph of the running ACC winning percentage since the inception of the Coastal Division:

Acccoastal2_medium

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If Miami doesn't lose to somebody

I don’t see us making it. Even if we win out convincingly and rise above Miami in the polls, I don’t see them dropping far enough behind us if they don’t lose.

by CraigT on Oct 13, 2009 9:30 AM EDT reply actions  

we need

Clemson or USF to pull upsets on Miami ‘cause that’s our only shot at anything BCS-related

I'm about to write you a reality check. Or would you prefer the cold, hard cash of truth?

by BirdGT on Oct 13, 2009 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

I can see a Miami loss....

Clemson at home. I can see them looking past someone and getting beat. Clemson has the defense and if Spiller has a big day, I can see an upset.

by TechFan on Oct 13, 2009 9:58 AM EDT reply actions  

"Since the 2005 division system, three teams have dominated the Coastal: VT, GT, and Miami"

I don’t think Miami should be included in this statement. They are 16-17 in ACC play from 2005-2008. If you include this year’s tally, they are 18-18. Miami hasn’t dominated the Coastal in any way.

The Coastal might be propping up the Atlantic this season, but the Coastal has been a 1 1/2 team race the last 4 years.

by Brian @ BCI on Oct 13, 2009 10:12 AM EDT reply actions  

I included Miami

because they’ve kinda been in the hunt for a couple times versus UVA, UNC, and Duke never really have

I'm about to write you a reality check. Or would you prefer the cold, hard cash of truth?

by BirdGT on Oct 13, 2009 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions  

"kinda been in the hunt for a couple times" <> "dominated the Coastal"

By that logic, Maryland has dominated the Atlantic because they’ve finished with a winning record in the conference a couple of times.

by Brian @ BCI on Oct 13, 2009 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

actually an interesting point for the Atlantic...

The Coastal is 36-41 all time against the Atlantic. GT and VT are the only Coastal teams with winning records against the Atlantic. Here’s a breakdown by year of Coastal vs. Atlantic:

2005: 10-8
2006: 6-12
2007: 8-10
2008: 7-11
2009: 5-0

Anyone that argues for realignment is foolish. Maybe “dominated” to strong of a word but strong words bring strong reaction (ala “chaos” in the title).

I'm about to write you a reality check. Or would you prefer the cold, hard cash of truth?

by BirdGT on Oct 13, 2009 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm turning into a Clemson fan

Temporarily….actually they are playing better. Maybe Dabo can work some Death Valley magic…

Maker's Mark--nectar of the gods...

by chrisinindy on Oct 13, 2009 1:45 PM EDT reply actions  

Speaking of misleading column headlines...

“A coin flip for the ACC title game?” http://www.charlotteobserver.com/sports/college-football/story/1002063.html

They have the same idea, but dumbed down for the MSM-reading crowd. The idiocy comes from a coin flip being backup for the off-years in the ACC and no one is in the BCS standings. Or maybe this year’s Atlantic Division (rimshot).

If they really wanted a rabble-rousing headline, they could talk about how the voters could chose a BCS-conference title game participant for the second year in a row. Last year, everyone watched Texas and Oklahoma and Texas Tech. This year, no one will be watching VT, Miami, and GT in the backend of their ACC schedule with the same interest. Then again, it would be nice to have three 1-loss teams in the spotlight.

Fan of: Cards, Blues, Yellow Jackets, Rams, Wolverines, and Blazers.

by ColinMacLeod on Oct 15, 2009 1:09 PM EDT reply actions  

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